银河黑色金属早评：城区常住人口超过200万城市
今日品种
银河期货
铁矿石 | 钢 | 可乐| 镍和不锈钢| 铜| 锌| 铝和氧化铝 | 锡| 铅 | 贵金属| 燃油| 原油| 沥青| 纸浆| 天然橡胶和20号橡胶| 塑料| 甲醇 | 尿素| 聚氯乙烯| PX | PTA | 聚丙烯| PF | 乙二醇 | EB | 液化气| 烧碱| 纯碱| 玻璃| 集装箱指数（欧洲线）| 干散货运输及游轮运输
早期审查
银河系
黑色金属板
研究员：魏俊义
投资咨询许可证号：Z0018233
钢
【重要信息】
据21世纪经济报道，记者从权威渠道获悉，监管部门近日明确，包括城中村改造、保障性住房建设在内的城市扩张将从城镇常住人口300万以上的城市扩大省会城市或城镇常住居民。 人口200万以上的城市、省会城市或常住人口100万以上的市区。 根据相关指标，纳入城中村改造和保障性住房建设的城市数量将分别由35个扩大到52个和106个。 此外，这些城市申报的相关项目还须符合资金收支平衡或项目收入与融资平衡等条件。 保障性住房、城中村改造等“三大工程”建设是政策的重点。 监管部门推出了多项支持措施，包括中央预算内投资、专项债券、住房抵押贷款补充贷款PSL等，新纳入城市的符合条件的项目还可享受相关政策支持，从而稳定甚至提振房地产投资。
【现货价格】
现货：上海螺纹网上价格3910元（+10），北京3840元（+10），上海热卷4030元（+10），北京热卷3950元（+10）。天津。
【交易策略】
昨晚市场继续震荡。 22日全国建材成交量10.18万吨，处于较低水平。 上周，钢铁联合会公布了数据。 铁水产量221.91万吨，环比增加1.12万吨。 螺纹小样产量234.17万吨，环比-8.24万吨。 表需求预计217.55万吨（农历同比+561.4%），环比-1.08万吨。 。 库存方面，工厂仓库-5.15万吨，社会仓库+21.77万吨，整体库存+16.62万吨。 本周热卷产量293.81万吨，环比-9.95万吨，表需求293.67万吨（农历同比+13.62%），环比-7.89万吨。 库存方面，工厂仓库-1.77万吨，社会仓库+1.91万吨，整体库存+1400吨。 5大钢材品种总体产量-13.97万吨，5大品种工厂库存环比-3.11万吨，社会仓+32.73万吨，总库存+29.62万吨。 由于钢厂仍处于亏损状态，五大材料整体产量仍在下降。 不过，近期高炉检修即将结束，钢厂陆续恢复生产。 由于电炉利润下降，废钢基地和钢厂到货量下降，废钢价格开始下跌； 而钢企库存则持续从工厂仓库转移至社区仓，螺纹库存量较高，热卷库存量较少。 成品表需要根据季节性继续下降。 国内热卷需求尚可。 价格下跌后，钢厂接单积极，但外需有所下降。 目前市场预期依然疲弱。 由于钢厂提前减产，焦炭市场已经提前体现了三轮半的下跌。 铁水产量已触底反弹。 近期，煤炭、焦炭现货价格企稳。 第三轮焦炭减产或将流产，成本有支撑。 但随着春节临近，成品钢材库存不断积累，钢厂陆续出台冬储政策。 现货价格追随冬季存储价格，缺乏上涨动力。 预计未来钢价将继续震荡，期货价格主要受市场情绪影响。 但要警惕改变市场预期的政策风险。
单边：维持震荡走势
套利：建议做多5-10价差，获利平仓
选项：建议观望。
炼焦煤 焦炭
【重要信息】
1、国务院常务会议听取资本市场运行情况和工作考虑的报告，强调要进一步完善资本市场基础制度，更加注重投融资动态平衡； 加大中长期资金入市力度，增强市场内在稳定性。 要加强资本市场监管，对违法违规行为“零容忍”，营造规范透明的市场环境。 我们必须采取更有力、更有效的措施稳定市场、稳定信心。
2、中国船舶重工集团公司在互动平台表示，公司目前生产任务比较满，工期已延长至2027年、2028年，没有减产计划。 公司主营业务较为突出，包括造船业务（军用及民用）、修船业务、海洋工程及机电设备等。
【相关价格】
钢联数据显示，目前日照港焦炭出库贸易汇款为2292元/吨，港口现货焦炭仓单约为2492元/吨。 来自汾渭数据的山西煤炭仓库单价为2130元/吨。 汾渭数据测算，蒙古5号沙河彝仓单价约1932元/吨，蒙古3号沙河彝库单价约1915元/吨。
【交易策略】
夜盘双光眼镜价格波动较大。 目前市场交易以宏观为主。 近期，黑色产品受到库存下跌的一定程度拖累。 市场信心不足，行业与宏观博弈出现分歧。 焦煤方面，煤矿库存下降，销售好转，下游采购热情回升，焦钢企业焦煤库存持续增加。 从基本面来看，双焦现货价格逐渐企稳，部分煤种小幅回升。 焦炭第三轮降价预计不会结束。 需求方面，铁水已基本触底，预计未来铁水产量将缓慢上升。 受煤矿事故等因素影响，焦煤供应仍难以恢复正常水平。 随着春节临近，煤矿将于1月底开始准备过节。 预计年前双焦价格波动较大，运行概率较大。 我们还需要关注宏观消息。
单边：震荡较强
套利：观望
选项：观望
铁矿
【重要信息】
1、壳牌研究院数据显示，2024年1月，100个城市主流首套房贷款平均利率为3.84%，环比下降2BP； 第二套房贷平均利率为4.41%，与上月持平。 截至2024年1月中旬，100个城市中有60个城市首套房贷款利率进入“3时代”。
2、1月15日至1月21日，Mysteel澳大利亚、巴西铁矿石发货量合计2152.9万吨，环比减少134万吨。 澳大利亚发货1508.8万吨，环比减少65.1万吨，其中澳大利亚向中国发货1261万吨，环比增加6.8万吨。 巴西发货644.2万吨，环比减少68.9万吨。
3、1月22日，全国主要港口铁矿石成交量83万吨，环比下降21.3%； 237家主流贸易商建筑钢材成交量10.18万吨，环比增长1.4%。
【相关价格】
青岛港PB粉现货价格1005（-6），标准品贴水1068； 超特粉现货价格895（-5），标准品折价1146； 卡粉现货价格1097（-8），标品优惠1072； 主流价品PB粉现货价1005（-6），折标品1068，05主力合约基差116。
【交易策略】
夜盘铁矿石价格上涨1.37%。 前期价格下跌对市场情绪的影响已基本消除。 此轮价格从高位回落，黑色系列整体呈现下降趋势，与去年9月底的价格下跌类似。 宏观和基本面不支持，基本都是资金主导。 。 从基本面看，铁水持续下滑、季节性到港量维持高位，港口库存持续积累。 然而，这些数据并不是当前交易的核心逻辑。 市场更关注上半年港口能否进入超级旺季。 性爱去图书馆。 需求方面，目前市场是上半年的游戏需求。 从宏观角度看，主要是博弈政策预期。 从供需角度看，在房地产稳定和基础设施建设的支撑下，上半年钢材消费预计将大幅增长。 上半年建材市场需求预计将超过市场预期，目前建材产量较低，预计将造成上半年供需错配。 目前炉料成交基本完成宏观和行业共振，但成品基本仍处于宏观交易预期改善阶段，本轮涨价结束有望看到宏观调控以及成品的工业共鸣。 总体来看，当前市场仍处于宏观预期交投阶段。 市场可能在宏观经济估值与行业悲观预期之间反复博弈，但市场价格已基本稳定。
单方面：观望
套利：观望
选项：等等看
双硅
【重要信息】
1、美国媒体透露，以色列提出在加沙停火两个月，条件是释放所有人质。
2、据日经新闻报道，日本央行将修改CPI预测至2025财年，暂时维持CPI上涨2%左右的前景。
【相关价格】
72%硅铁：内蒙古6450（0）、宁夏6500（0）、青海6500（0）。
6517锰硅：内蒙古6120（-20）、宁夏6040（0）、广西6350（0）。
锰矿天津港：澳大利亚区块36.2（-0.1）、加蓬35（0）、南非半醋酸32.2（-0.1）。
兰潭小配料：陕西1060（0）、宁夏1080（0）、内蒙1000（0）。
【交易策略】
硅铁方面，期货市场低迷影响了市场信心。 市场供应保持稳定，需求端较为谨慎。 随着春节临近，钢厂继续停产减产。 市场供过于求的局面尚未改善，市场成交清淡。 贸易商入市备货谨慎，市场成交仅有少量。 目前硅铁市场交投表现一般，下游需求仍以刚性需求为主，预计仍将维持在低位。 现货锰、硅方面，市场继续维持僵持观望状态。 除部分刚需订单外，市场操作整体询价量较小。 工厂和期货公司均表示，近期出货频次一般，价格优惠空间有限。 尤其是工厂方面，内蒙古工厂集中精力完成订单，因现货供应有限，不愿低价出货。 内蒙古大部分工厂仍坚持报价并在6100左右完成成交。 宁夏的工厂却有不同的态度。 有的在等待、暂停报价，有的则愿意盈利出货。 工厂库存仍处于高位。 随着春节临近，市场交投逐渐减少，硅锰需求冷清。 业内人士仍看空2月市场，但对3月有一定信心。 春节前后南北开工情况的变化也引发更多关注。 不过，从目前来看，1月份以来主产区的减产速度较为缓慢，但不排除本周和下周春节前后会出现变化。
单边：预计震荡偏弱。
套利：观望。
选项：等等看。
早期审查
银河系
有色金属板块
研究员：王莹莹
投资咨询许可证号：Z0014913
镍
【市场回顾】
1、市场情况：NI2402涨170收于127010元/吨，指数持仓量减少16063手，LME镍库存减少84吨至69492吨；
2、现货情况：镍价单边下跌2100-2200元/吨，金川镍贴水下调150至3850元/吨，俄罗斯镍贴水下调25至-125元/吨，电解镍贴水维持不变-950元/吨。 吨，硫酸镍均价维持26500元/吨不变；
【重要信息】
1、SMM讯，据海关数据显示，2023年12月我国累计进口镍铁实物81.79万吨，环比下降24.95%，同比下降20.30%。 从金属量来看，12月镍铁金属进口总量为9.7万份。 镍吨环比增长24.7%，进口量较11月有所增加。 我国进口印尼镍铁的增加主要是由于国内钢厂急需储备库存以及印尼当地镍铁产量的增加。 预计1月份国内不锈钢产量增幅有限，进口高镍生铁量或将维持低位。
2、钢联讯，据中国海关数据，2023年12月中国镍湿法中间产品进口量13.49万吨，环比减少5700吨，降幅4.04%； 同比增加4.71万吨，增幅53.62%。 其中，来自印尼的进口量为9.93万吨，环比下降10.26%，占本月进口量的73.63%。 2023年1-12月镍湿法冶炼中间产品进口总量132.07万吨，同比增长46.63%。
3、据报道，必和必拓集团周一表示，将对旗下西澳坎巴尔达镍矿的部分设施进行检查和维护。 此前，为选矿厂供应矿石的Wyloo Metals曾宣布，由于镍价较低，将暂停采矿作业。 必和必拓 Nickel West 资产总裁杰西卡·法雷尔 (Jessica Farrell) 在一份声明中表示：“Wyloo 决定暂停运营，这意味着从年中开始，Kambalda 选矿厂的部分设备将不再运行。”
4、东方电热表示，公司将根据市场对镍预镀材料的需求情况，适时启动镍预镀扩建项目的内部审批程序。 该公司预计，大型圆柱电池在汽车领域的渗透率很有可能会提高。 未来，随着46系列电池数量的增加，预镀镍材料的需求量很可能会大幅增加。
【交易策略】
1、单边：金川镍溢价近期也有所下调，下游逐渐降温，进入春节期间囤积阶段。 原料端，镍铁与硫酸镍分化：钢材采购减少，镍铁价格松动； 由于减产和下游补货，硫酸镍价格保持坚挺。 目前市场呈现现实弱、预期强的结构。 节前旺季需求情况无法核实。 预计将维持震荡走势。 节后关注库存及宏观变化。 （以上意见仅供参考，不作为入市依据）
不锈钢
【市场回顾】
1、市场情况：SS2403合约上涨75%，收于14190元/吨，指数持仓量增4523手；
2、现货市场：冷轧价格报价13550-13900元/吨，热轧价格报价13350-13500元/吨，冷热轧价格普遍上涨50-100元。
【重要信息】
1、51不锈钢讯，据海关数据，2023年12月，国内不锈钢进口量26.82万吨，环比增长102.11%，同比增长13.24%。 12月份，国内不锈钢出口量33.55万吨，环比下降6.10%，同比下降14.10%。 12月不锈钢净出口6.73万吨，环比下降70.04%，同比下降56.22%。 2023年12月，国内从印尼进口不锈钢24.11万吨，环比增长129.40%，同比增长27.03%。 1-12月，累计从印尼进口不锈钢169.48万吨，同比下降38.60%。
【交易策略】
1、单边：镍铁价格从最高960元/镍点附近回落至930元/镍点，市场反弹给予套保利润较高。 距离春节假期还有不到一个月的时间。 钢厂在途库存已到。 与此同时，下游库存补货也进入尾声。 收尾工作将于下周逐步开始。 社会库存进入积累阶段，价格以波动为主。 节前关注钢厂减产消息，节后关注库存和宏观变化，以坚强心态对待震荡。 （以上意见仅供参考，不作为入市依据）
铜
【市场回顾】
1、期货：伦铜昨日下跌，收于8329美元/吨，跌51美元/吨，跌幅0.61%。 沪铜主力收于67920元/吨，跌80元/吨，跌幅0.12%。 沪铜指数减仓2,373手至36.29万手。
2、现货：昨日LME铜库存减少1,125吨至156,700吨，COMEX铜库存增加477短吨至21,449短吨。
【重要信息】
1、海关总署数据显示，2023年12月，我国共进口精炼铜（未锻轧铜含量>99.9935%的精炼阴极铜及其他未锻轧精炼阴极铜）31.16万吨，较去年同期下降17.74%。前一个月。 同比下降10.3%。 2023年进口总量351.08万吨，累计同比下降4.37%。 12月出口1.08万吨，环比下降35.81%，同比增长10.34%。 2023年出口总量为27.92万吨，累计同比增长20.35%。
2、海关总署1月20日发布的网上查询数据显示，12月份我国废铜（废铜、废铜）进口量199973.16吨，环比增长9.33%，同比增长同比增长43.69%。 其中，美国是最大的废铜供应国。 当月中国从美国进口废铜34700.19吨，环比减少7.12%，同比增加44.90%。
【交易策略】
单边：美国近期公布的经济数据好于预期，美联储3月降息概率已降至40%左右，美元指数走强对铜价不利。 但铜基本面依然较为强劲。 海外方面，受巴拿马运河问题影响，美国铜进口量下降，美国铜库存呈下降趋势。 铜矿业绩紧张。 上周现货市场成交价35美元/吨。 精铜方面，西南某冶炼厂停产，西北某冶炼厂开始停炉保温。 而且，铜矿紧张也会影响精铜的产量。 不少冶炼厂已将检修计划提前至3月、4月。 进口方面，12月精炼铜进口33.8万吨，较11月减少约7万吨，其中俄罗斯铜下降4万吨，刚果铜下降2万吨，主要是苏伊士运河和民主共和国运输问题刚果的。 今年第一季度可能仍会受到影响。 总体来看，铜供给端存在诸多问题。 预计上半年铜价仍偏紧，铜价不存在大幅下跌的基础。 随着铜价回落至68000下方，本周下游仍有储备需求，67000-68000区间有支撑。
（以上意见仅供参考，不作为入市依据）
锌
【市场回顾】
1、盘面情况：隔夜锌价维持窄幅震荡，伦锌下跌19美元至2454美元/吨，ZN2403上涨10元至20760元/吨，沪锌指数增仓904手至17.39万手；
2、现货情况：市场气氛偏弱，广州略显惜售，上海贴水继续下滑。 上海02合约报价110，较上一交易日-20；
【重要信息】
1、12月锌锭进口量226万吨。 据海关数据显示，2023年12月锌锭进口量为2.26万吨，环比下降56.37%，同比增长184.57%；
2、周一SMM锌社会库存较上周五微增3200吨至7.41万吨。 这主要是由于周末上海到货较多，广东陆续进入假期状态，需求有所下降。 库存小幅增加，到津货量较少。 库存小幅下降。
【交易策略】
1、单边：近期宏观市场情绪一般，工业社会库存小幅增加，现货升水小幅回落，市场气氛一般，锌价窄幅震荡，维持在五日线下方，锌价窄幅震荡，维持在五日线下方价格仍处于下降趋势。 企稳，建议暂时观望；
2、套利：基于消费旺季预期和低库存前景，逐步安排4-7合约。 目前入场价差80，昨天收盘价110；
3、期权：根据基本面成本支撑和技术点位支撑的判断，可以逢低买入比例看涨期权，在183元卖出2倍ZN-2403-P-20400，在183元买入zn-c-21000 236元。 ，净收益溢价130元/吨/组，构建比例看涨期权策略，当前浮动亏损40点； （以上意见仅供参考，不作为入市依据）
氧化铝
【市场回顾】
1、期货市场：隔夜氧化铝价格震荡反弹，AO2403合约上涨8元至3228元/吨。
2、现货市场：周初，氧化铝市场氛围较前期没有明显变化，市场交投一般，暂无大宗现货成交消息，因此氧化铝现货价格较为有限；
【重要信息】
1、据阿拉丁（ALD）调研，广西中型氧化铝厂焙烧炉于上周五开始例行计划检修，检修时间在7-10天之间。 该公司已建成产能100万吨，但由于矿石供应短缺，过去六个月一直处于半产量运行。 关闭焙烧炉进行维护是有计划的操作；
2、阿拉丁数据显示，目前山西氧化铝产能为2620万吨。 据交口一家已小批量复产的中型氧化铝厂、孝义一家大型氧化铝厂满负荷运转、晋北一家大型氧化铝厂产能过剩等情况透露。 从数据推断，山西省最大氧化铝运营产能在17.15-1750万吨之间，而2023年山西省常规运营产能（产量）在1850万吨左右。
【交易策略】
1、单边：短期市场受碱价波动影响出现共振，目前市场领先现货价格提前下跌后，需要一定时间震荡等待现货市场转向。 短期来看，基础对市场有一定支撑。 但在未来供给端宽松的预期以及目前新疆仓单销售惨淡的现实压力下，预计春节后氧化铝将震荡下跌，04合约空单将继续持有；
2、期权：卖出AO2403-C-3350看涨期权，升水50元/吨左右； 比例看跌期权组合，卖出2倍的AO2404-C-3350，买入1倍的AO2404-P-3250看跌期权构建0溢价投资组合。 （以上意见仅供参考，不作为入市依据）
铝
【市场回顾】
1、期货市场：隔夜铝价小幅下跌，伦敦铝跌17.5美元至2155美元/吨，AL2403跌50元至18660元/吨，沪铝指数持仓量增3442手至44.89万手；
2、现货市场：周一现货市场整体成交量较为平均，交投气氛偏弱。 网上价格无锡-10~10，佛山0~-20；
三、能源成本方面，市场窄幅波动，成交有限。 金郑北港动力煤（非电厂流）市场价格：5500CV，917元/吨（0）； 5000CV，803元/吨（-4）； 4500CV，695元/吨（-3）；
【重要信息】
1、2023年12月，进口废铝15.45万吨，较2022年12月增加20.77%，较2023年11月减少12.32%。2023年1月至12月，累计进口废铝175.3万吨进口量同比增长15.47%。
2、海关数据显示，12月原铝进口17.5万吨，环比下降9.9%，同比增长37.2%。 2023年原铝进口量154.2万吨，同比增长130.8%。
3、据SMM信息显示，周一铝锭社会库存小幅减少1000吨至44万吨，铝条社会库存增加1.58万吨至9.96万吨；
【交易策略】
1、单边：从中长期电解铝供需基本面来看，随着价格逐渐回落，做多的价值逐渐体现，特别是当前社会库存处于极低水平，且积累预计淡季身高会较低。 但目前的下跌主要是宏观情绪主导。 从技术图形上看，没有止跌企稳的迹象。 而且后市即将面临消费淡季，一定程度上抑制了多头补货的热情。 目前价格建议暂时观望。 或者选择期权工具尝试“抄底”。
2、套利： 套利：布局远期04-07合约的正仓。 基于淡季囤积压力较小，旺季库存预期较低，目前04-07期价差100元/吨，昨日收于85；
3、期权：继续持有比例看涨期权组合，以195的价格买入AL2403-C-18700，以100的价格卖出2倍AL2403-P-18300，构建0溢价组合，浮动利润昨天92。
锡
【市场回顾】
1、市场情况：隔夜LME锡收报25710美元/吨，涨幅1.64%。 夜盘沪锡主力合约收于215450元/吨，较上一交易日上涨1510元/吨；
2、现货情况：上海现货锡锭报价214000元/吨，与前一交易日持平； 最新海外LME库存水平为6900吨，较上一交易日减少130吨。 LME0-3M的折扣达到189.2美元/吨，比上交日的折扣低3.8美元/吨。
【重要信息】
1.国内焊接样品公司的运营率在12月下降，预计将在1月增加。 这主要是因为锡价自本月初以来下跌，这激发了终端公司的增加订单，并且绝大多数公司将选择在一月份增加其订单量。 在春节假期之前准备库存，以准备在春节假期期间为生产和销售需求做准备，从而导致一月份的产出和营业率反弹。
2.预计消费电子行业将在2024年继续其恢复趋势，其繁荣将继续改善。 特别是，AI领域将在未来成为该行业的新增长点。 消费电子行业的周期约为十年。 预计，在AI和VR等技术创新的帮助下，这一新周期的开始有望为该行业带来超过五年的上升周期。
【交易曲折】
据了解，Manxiang Tin采矿区没有计划在春季音乐节之前恢复工作和生产。 WA状态下几乎90％的锡矿来自Manxiang Tin采矿区。 预计在春节之前，更多的本地集中器将面临原材料的短缺。 去年，国内精制的锡罐产量略有增长，但是由于矿山禁令对缅甸西澳州的持续影响，国内矿山供应变得越来越紧。 现货市场的交易逐渐放慢速度，下半年下游的公司正在休假。 锡价加强后，他们在购买商品方面谨慎。 在短期内，预计锡价格将主要在高水平上波动，关注216,000元/吨的向上压力，并随后对相关政策的关注，例如WA州的生产恢复。
（上述意见仅供参考，不被用作进入市场的基础）
带领
【市场审查】
1.市场状况：LME Lead在一夜之间收于2,122.5美元/吨，比上交日上涨0.69％。 上海主要的铅合同在夜间交易中收于16,535元/吨，比上一个交易日增加60元/吨；
2.现货情况：上海市场中＃1电解铅的平均价格为16,300元/吨，比上一交易所的日期增加了100元/吨。 LME Lead库存记录了111,325吨，而在上一个交易日则持续了900吨。 LME0-3M的折扣达到8.91美元/吨，比上交日的折扣低5.09美元/吨。
【重要信息】
1.世界金属统计局（WBMS）发布的最新报告显示，2023年11月，全球精制铅产量为12.608亿吨，消费量为12.532亿吨，盈余为7,600吨。 从2023年1月到11月，全球精致的铅产量为135.367亿吨，消费量为1351.83亿吨，供应盈余为18,400吨。 2023年11月，全球铅矿山产量为432,200吨。 从2023年1月到11月，全球铅矿山产量为459.13亿吨。
2.截至1月22日，这五个地方的SMM铅橡胶的总社会清单达到46,000吨，比1月19日减少了4,000吨。1月底，铅酸电池公司习惯于储备铅。春季音乐节前后的锭。 铅消费相对剧烈。 在供应方面，主要的铅冶炼厂正在维护，次要铅冶炼厂的产量经常有限，并且少数炼油厂开始进入春节假期。 短期铅铸入式供应差距很难修复。
【交易曲折】
最近，主要铅冶炼厂的清单下降到不到1,000吨。 内蒙古和匈奴的一些冶炼厂只有尚未发货的少量铅烟库存。 冶炼厂的库存供不应求，主要铅冶炼厂维持高水费。 再生精制的铅也由预售交易主导，现场供应已经紧密近两个星期。 同时，下游企业已经进入了春季音乐节之前的习惯库存准备期。 铅Ingot供应的减少已经达到了下游春季音乐节的库存准备。 领先的Ingot社会库存和冶炼企业工厂的库存同时下降，而下降相对较大。 毁灭性的逻辑将继续支持铅价格的强烈波动。 在短期内，专注于16,000元/吨的支持水平。 将来，将注意废电池价格和供应侧铅橡胶的变化。
（上述意见仅供参考，不被用作进入市场的基础）
贵金属
【市场审查】
1.贵金属市场：目前的市场预计美联储的削减利率将推迟到5月。 受到影响的影响，贵金属通常很弱。 伦敦黄金在会议期间几次测试了$ 2,030，但未能突破。 它终于保持接近2020分，下跌0.43％，至每盎司2,020.7美元。 伦敦银行在白天急剧下降，曾经在会议期间跌至22分，最终下跌了2.38％，每盎司22.07美元。 在外部市场的驱动下，上海主要金合同在夜间交易中关闭了0.42％，至478.66元/克。 上海主要的白银合同依次低于5900和5800水平，最终以5779元/公斤的价格下跌了1.33％。
2.美元指数：美元指数在103大关以上的范围内波动，最终以103.33的价格上涨了0.04％；
3.美国财政收益率：美国10年的美国财政收益率下降，在会议期间低于4.1％的成绩，最终以4.0995％的速度关闭； 实际收益率略微下降至1.80％。
4. RMB汇率：RMB在过去两个月中以低水平合并，下跌0.03％，为7.191。
【重要信息】
1. CME“美联储手表”：美联储将利率保持不变的概率为5.25％-5.50％，在2月份为97.9％，3月份保持利率不变的概率为58.4％，降低利率的可能性为到5月的25个基点为51.5％（与昨天相同）。
【交易曲折】
1.单方面：
在美国经济放缓的背景下，核心通货膨胀率持续下降，市场此前曾大量下注，美联储将在3月开始降低利率。 但是，美国最近的经济数据仍然表现出韧性，美联储官员也曾经说过，以抑制市场对降低利率的期望。 市场重新检查了美国的通货膨胀和降低利率的步伐，并在降低利率降低到5月的情况下推迟了下注。 美元和美国债券贵金属承受着压力，因为收益率反弹至12月中旬以来未见的水平。
伦敦黄金的重点是2030年的抵抗。如果不能退缩，它将转移到2001年。 伦敦银将专注于22.1的支持。 如果失败，它将看起来为21.7。 上海黄金的主要合同集中在479附近的支持上。如果它无法退缩，它将望去477。在短期内，它将主要等待和看，等待更正稳定的校正； 上海银的主要合同将集中在200天移动平均线的支持上。 如果再次分解，它将望去5650。在短期内，我们仍然可以拭目以待，等待更正稳定，然后再放置长订单。 （上述意见仅供参考，不被用作进入市场的基础）
碳酸锂
【市场审查】
1.市场情况：2407合同下降了2200，关闭了99850元/吨，指数头寸减少了2826批次，仓库收据为13700吨；
2.现场情况：SMM的电碳报价与上个月相比以96,500元/吨保持不变，而工业碳则与上个月的88,300元/吨保持不变。
【重要信息】
1.北京宣布，它计划领导在新疆的锂资源开发中进行20亿投资。 值得注意的是，双喷气机的投资金额有20亿个“沉重”，该飞机的市场价值为35亿。 截至去年的第三季度，该公司的货币资本为637.82亿元，所有者的权益归因于上市公司的股东14.75亿元人民币。
2.澳大利亚的Liontown Resources Co.，Ltd。计划在今年中期启动凯瑟琳谷锂项目。 面对Spodumene价格下跌，公司正在重新评估扩张计划，以减少成本和短期资本需求。 尽管以前的一项与贷方财团的7.6亿美元的贷款协议因降低融资规模而被终止，但Liontown已从福特那里获得了3亿美元的项目融资，现在可以持有5.15亿美元的现金储备，这可以是可以是这笔储备金保证2024年中期的第一阶段生产。 该公司对锂市场的长期前景感到乐观。
【交易曲折】
1.单方面：需求的下降速度快于供应，导致库存的持续积累。 目前，上游和下游派对之间存在僵局，交易被遗弃了。 现货价格主要取决于交易者的批量订单，并注意期货与当前价格对市场的价格差异的影响。 超过110,000的价格吸引了盐饮料工厂，低于90,000的价格吸引了下游补给。 两侧之间的僵局很难松动。 建议在春节前谨慎操作，并以看跌的心态对待冲击。
2.选择：需求很差，供应压力仍然存在，在股票积累下，价格波动却很弱。 建议出售LC2403-C-110000。 昨天以收盘价为400元/吨的溢价为400元/吨，利润率为8,000元/吨。 还有15天的天然天，到期的产量为5％。 （上述意见仅供参考，不被用作进入市场的基础）
早期审查
银河系
化学工业领域
研究人员：宋杨
投资咨询许可证号：Z0000551
原油
【市场前景】
原油结算价格：WTI2402合同上涨1.78美元/桶，或2.42％至75.19； Brent2403合同上涨了1.50美元/桶或1.91％，至80.06。 SC2403在夜间交易中将3.1升至563.3元/桶，并上升9.4元到572.7元/桶。 布伦特的第一个价格差异是每桶0.49美元。
【重要信息】
在地缘政治阵线上，巴勒斯坦官员说，以色列军队深入加沙南部的主要城市可汗尤尼斯（Khan Younis）的西部，并在一月份在加沙最激烈的战斗中袭击了两家医院。 周一，美国和英军在也门对也门的胡塞叛军发动了新的罢工，以他们的地下存储仓库，导弹和导弹和空中监视能力为目标。
巴基斯坦说，伊朗外交大臣下周将访问巴基斯坦。 这标志着两国的努力在上周在彼此的领土上对彼此的武装目标发射导弹后重建联系。
俄罗斯的两个行业消息人士告诉路透社，俄罗斯计划将2月2月的石油出口与1月相同的水平，但冬季天气和炼油厂维护可能会导致对该计划的调整。 消息人士称，二月份可能的较低的炼油厂运营率和与天气有关的装载延迟可能会导致2月的出口更高。 同时，最近对参与俄罗斯石油出口的油轮的制裁可能会增加对俄罗斯石油出口市场的压力，从而导致货物放缓。
贝克·休斯（Baker Hughes）发布的数据显示，在截至1月19日的一周中，在美国在线钻探的油井数量为497，是自11月中旬以来的最低水平，比上周少2个； 比去年同期少116。 在同一时期，美国钻探的天然气钻机数量为120，比上周增加了3个，比去年同期减少了36。
【交易曲折】
石油价格波动和加强，地缘政治冲突继续提高风险溢价。 随着利比亚生产的返回和冷浪在美国的影响较弱，原油供应方面的好处暂时耗尽，欧洲和中东的现货保费暂时稳定。 在宏观方面，市场预计美联储的削减速度将被推迟，并且对经济前景不确定性的担忧限制了油价上涨空间。 短期石油价格缺乏一定的主线逻辑。 它是地缘终极看涨的，供需是中立的，宏观是看跌。 考虑到地缘政治风险溢价和供求的边际改善，石油价格预计会强烈波动，并且布伦特营业范围每桶75-82美元。 （上述意见仅供参考，不被用作进入市场的基础）
沥青
【市场前景】
BU2403在夜间交易中以3722（+0.24％）关闭。
在现货市场，1月22日，山东沥青的现货价格为3450-3550，中国东部3750-3850和中国南部3750-3830。
精制石油产品的基准价格：Shandong Dilian 92＃汽油下降了21至8,317元/吨，0＃柴油下降了50至7,029元/吨，山东3＃B Petroleum Coke下降了100至1,847 Yuan/ton。
【重要信息】
沥青现货价格在很大程度上保持稳定，主要是低价资源交易。 中国北部的供应相对稳定。 Hebei Xinhai主要提供早期合同，生产和销售是平衡的。 一些炼油厂的存储源，库存略有增加。 该地区的实际交易是光明的，高价交易是平均的。 在中国南部，朱伊·瓦芬沥青的产量已被暂停，该地区的建设开始略有下降。 在某些地区受到冷却和多雨天气影响的地区，下游的终端需求已经被胜过。 （Longzhong）
【交易曲折】
根据Baichuan Yingfu的统计数据，与上周四相比，周一国内沥青炼油厂的开始增长了0.21％，至29.44％，这主要是由于Qilu的生产和山东省的Shengxing恢复。 炼油厂清单下跌了0.22％，至31.74％，社会库存增长了1.07％，至26.78％。 油价冲击相对较大，沥青成本端支持相对较强。 在休赛期的供求状况较弱的情况下，现货价格在狭窄的范围内波动。 稀释沥青的原材料成本很高，在上半年，仍有关于原材料问题的余地。 BU2403的工作范围预计在3550-3750之间。 可以留下早期的积累和销售策略。 考虑到远期油价的不确定性，建议您在沥青方面拭目以待（以上观点仅用于参考，而不是作为市场进入的基础）
燃油
【市场前景】
FU03合同于2922（+0.17％）结束，而LU04合同在夜间交易中关闭了4227（+0.59％）。 在新加坡造纸市场中，低销售1月/2月的每月差价为-7至-2美元/吨，高硫磺1月/2月的每月差额为7至11美元/吨。 LU04/03的内部和外部价格差异为16至14美元/吨，FU03/02的内部和外部价格差异为-10至-5美元/吨。
【重要信息】
1. Eurolstock周一发布的数据显示，欧洲炼油厂的产出增加了2.7％，每月每天增加2.7.4万桶，但同比下降了3％以上。 12月的原油进口总量为每天9681万桶，比11月增加5.1％，但比2022年12月的水平低1％。
2.俄罗斯能源公司Novatek可能会在涉嫌无人驾驶飞机攻击破裂流动后数周内在其UST-LUGA加工中心和波罗的海码头上恢复运营。
3.斯里兰卡（Sri Lanka）招标出售30,000吨高硫磺180，并于2月22日至23日加载，招标于1月24日结束。
4.在1月22日的点窗口中，没有用于高硫燃料油380的交易和低硫燃料油的2件交易。
【交易曲折】
高硫的现货折扣仍以3-4美元/吨的幅度波动。 在短期内，中东的高硫供应出口仍然保持高水平。 它主要来自新添加的设备，用于镇流器林木厂，沙特拉斯塔努拉炼油厂和科威特米娜·阿尔·阿玛迪炼油厂修复，以及该地区高和低硫燃料的转换。 新的高硫供应的压力来自墨西哥炼油厂的新产品。 计算了燃油生产的全面生产能力和生产能力的计算。 6月的供应量约为500,000吨。 调试的下降，供应压力首先会影响平均海湾市场。 中国对高硫饲料的需求仍然存在稳定，而潘 - 辛加帕尔（Pan -Singapore）的高硫库存压力也不是很大。 随着南亚和中东的逐步调整，对中期发电的需求预计不会那么乐观。 新加坡的低溶剂点贴纸继续以低水平波动。 一月份，尚未打开东方套利窗口。 2月，预计在上个月的低硫磺对新加坡港口的压力预计将下降，但是在月球节春季节之前，预计终端的需求预计将在月份下降。 在低硫的中间和长期供应压力下，科威特al-Zour的低硫竞标发布后，Kuwaid的低硫磺物流出口也开始拥有运输数据，这表明炼油厂正式正式开始运行正常运行。 低硫开裂预计将在短期内受到限制。 建议在硫价格高和低硫价格的短时间内拭目以待。 （上述观点仅供参考，不是作为进入市场的基础）
纸浆
【市场前景】
期货市场：脆弱的运营。 SP Main 05合同以5646点关闭，下降-4或-0.07％。
SP相关的泥浆相关：瓦吉东北东北市场可以出售罕见的供应。 下游的纸张工厂在大气中的气氛强烈，纸浆的价格随市场调整。 税收的市场部分包括参考价格：黑色针和5,500元/吨的布针。 中国南部进口的针叶酱的侧面和操作，下游的购买是谨慎的，需求不足。 银星报价为5800-5850元/吨。 （Zhuochuang信息）
CM瓦楞纸原始纸相关：Hubei Shanda Paper瓦楞纸价格暂时稳定。 当前的汇款工厂报价：据报道，高强度瓦楞纸85G为2950元/吨，据报道为2850元/吨，据报道为2850元/吨，110-130G据报道为2800元/吨。 河南朗约文纸中瓦楞纸的价格暂时稳定。 自税当前汇率：据报道，AA级高强度瓦楞纸120G为2890元/吨，据报道130-170G至2820元/吨。 （Zhuochuang信息）
OP双粘合剂相关：两挡tape Tianjin市场的主流意图是5700-5900元/吨，这是从上周五开始的。 市场绩效相对稳定，工厂的交付良好，有意提高其意图。 下游运营商的信心已经恢复，一些书籍供应商有股票，市场通信稍好一些。 （Zhuochuang信息）
【重要信息】
引用界面新闻：最近，韩国贸易委员会发布了一份宣布，即每平方米55-110克的重量有最终的裁决。 韩国建议继续对中国，日本和芬兰的涂层印刷纸张征收五年的反倾销税。 具体而言，中国和日本产品的税率为16.23％，芬兰产品的税率分别为8.22％和12.94％。 所涉及的产品归因于6个韩国税号，包括4810.13.1000。 2017年7月10日，韩国对印刷纸进行了反调查。 根据规划金融部第684号，韩国已决定从2018年7月22日开始对中国，日本和芬兰的涂料印刷纸征收反倾销税。这些措施有效至2023年7月21日。 2023年3月21日，案件开始时的第一次日落对韩国进行了审查。
【交易曲折】
2023年11月，日本纸浆进口量指数升至146.2分，增长了6.7％ - 年 - 连续15个月下降。 2023年12月，GYGSSTAN的书籍和财务的CPI，闭上393.5分，年龄增长+1.3％，年龄+1.3％，连续10个月下降。 观察到SP05合同，并遵循5600点的低位置的支持。 （上述观点仅供参考，并且不被用作进入市场的基础）
天然橡胶和20号橡胶
【市场前景】
RU天然橡胶相关：RU Main 05合同以13390点关闭，降低-155点或-1.14％； 日本的主要JRU06合同以271.5分关闭，上升+0.2点或 +0.07％。 截至前一天12点，云南WF以12750-12950元/吨的关闭，越南3L关闭，以12500-12550 yuan/ton/吨关闭，泰国烟雾胶片收购15200-15500元/吨，生产标记的数量关闭在11350-11450元/吨。
NR 20弹性相关：NR Main 03合同10935点，降低-180点或-1.62％； 新加坡的主要TF05合同以153.2分关闭，下降-2.4分或-1.54％。 截至昨天前一天的18:00，香烟胶船以每吨1730-1750 $ 1730-1750的收盘，香港船以1540-1550/吨的关闭，现场或附近的香港船只关闭货物于1530-1540美元关闭。 /吨。 RMB混合胶点获取12150-12250元/吨。
BR Butadiene橡胶 - 相关：BR Main 03合同以11965点关闭，上升+5点或 +0.04％。 扬胡瓦（Sinopec Yanhua）的隆隆人以12,300元/吨的关闭，CNPC东中国daqing Shunding以12,500元/吨的关闭，CNPC South Sichuan Sichuan关闭了1,2500元/吨。 中国北部市场BR9000售价为11600-12100元/吨，而东中国市场BR9000则关闭11900-12200 yuan/ton。 中国北部的中国北部的1502元人民币/吨闭合，中国1502年的中国市场送达12000-12100 yuan/ton。 江苏和Zheling Diane电影9050-9200元/吨。
【重要信息】
引用了柬埔寨橡胶总务：2023年，柬埔寨出口的橡胶达到了368,048吨，比2022年同期的372,903吨减少了1.3％去年出口橡胶，比2022年同期的5276亿美元下降7％； 平均出口成本为1333美元/吨，同时降低了约82美元。 该国的橡胶主要出口到马来西亚，越南，新加坡和中国。 到目前为止，柬埔寨总共拥有407,172公顷的橡胶种植园，其中320,184公顷或78.6％可以得到奖励。
【交易曲折】
截至1月初，日本的JRU烟胶库存重量已返回到55,800吨，一年一年的累积图书馆+11.7％，累积图书馆的速度放缓。 引用第三 - 方统计：库存库存库存房屋中的库存贸易室关闭了104,100吨，一年一年的累积+5.4％，以及附近的Inter -Ontry -Ontry -Ontrounding -inter -Warewarehouse； ％，连续24家工具室； 共有670,600吨，一年一年的累积图书馆+10.1％。 观察到RU05合同，并遵循不久的将来的13340点位置的支持； NR03合同将选择尝试，建议以11050点的低水平设置停止损失。 （上述观点仅供参考，并且不被用作进入市场的基础）
顺丁橡胶
【市场前景】
BR Butadiene橡胶 - 相关：BR Main 03合同以11965点关闭，上升+5点或 +0.04％。 扬胡瓦（Sinopec Yanhua）的隆隆人以12,300元/吨的关闭，CNPC东部中国daqing Shunding以12,500元/吨的关闭，CNPC South Sichuan Sichuan关闭了1,2500元/吨。 中国北部市场BR9000售价为11600-12100元/吨，而东中国市场BR9000则关闭11900-12200 yuan/ton。 中国北部的中国北部的1502元人民币/吨闭合，中国1502年的中国市场送达12000-12100 yuan/ton。 江苏和Zheling Diane电影9050-9200元/吨。
RU和NR天然橡胶相关：RU Main 05合同以13390点关闭，下降-155点或-1.14％。 截至前一天12:00，Yunnan WF以12750-12950元/吨的关闭，越南3L以12500-12550 yuan/ton关闭。 NR 20弹性相关：NR Main 03合同10935点，降低-180点或-1.62％； 新加坡的主要TF05合同以153.2分关闭，下降-2.4分或-1.54％。 截至前一天，泰国的位置或接近香港的船只以1540-1550吨/吨关闭。 RMB混合胶点获取12150-12250元/吨。
【重要信息】
国家能源管理局（National Energy Administration）引用的数据：2023年，整个社会的总功耗为9241亿千瓦时，增长了6.7％，年龄为6.7％，其中工业发电高于指定的规模为8.909亿千瓦时。 从子工业产业的功耗的角度来看，主要产业的电力消耗为1278亿千瓦时 - 小时，一年一年的增长11.5％； 第二行业的电力消耗是6074.5亿千瓦时，年龄增加了6.5％。 一年 - 年增长12.2％； 城市和农村居民的生活用电消耗1352.4亿千瓦时，一年一年增加了0.9％。
【交易曲折】
2023年11月，法国橡胶和塑料工业产量指数减少了88.7分，同比减少-8.4％，连续14个月减少了边际减少。 2023年12月，美国橡胶行业的产量指数减少了97.6点，同比下降-0.4％，并且连续10个月减少了边际生产。 BR03合同有少量的试验，建议以11885点的低位损失设置停止损失。 （上述观点仅供参考，并且不被用作进入市场的基础）
塑料
【市场前景】
昨天，白天L2405以8270的关闭，上涨0.82％或67分，而夜间磁盘L2405在8247上关闭，下跌0.28％或23分。 在现货市场上，LLDPE市场的价格上涨，变化为10-100 ran/ton。 中国北部的LLDPE的主流交易价格为8120-8250元/吨，比上个月上涨10-70元/吨。 中国东部LLDPE的主流交易价格为8160-8400元/吨，略高于上一个工作日的价格。 中国南部LLDPE的主流交易价格为8250-8450元/吨。
【重要信息】
1.今天，这两种石油库存为555,000吨，一个月降低了35,000吨。
【交易曲折】
在过去的两个星期中，PE已转换为仓库，上周供应方继续下降。 在新容量方面，今年上半年基本上没有新的生产能力。 需求方面，下游需求较弱，下个月的下游行业也在继续下降，并且在同一年度 - 年龄也是如此。 当前塑料的基本压力不是很大。 预计它将在假期前支持，而短期价格冲击很大。 中线是空的。 （意见仅用于参考，而不是作为买卖的基础）
甲醇
【市场前景】
期货市场：期货合同的主要合同在晚上令人震惊，最后收集了2407（+21/+0.88％）
现货市场：生产土地，内蒙古南线的价格为230元/吨，北线的价格为2020元/吨。 Guanzhong地区的价格为2,130元/吨，Yulin地区的价格为260元/吨，Shanxi地区的价格为2140元/吨，Henan地区的价格为2270元/吨。
在消费者中，Lunan地区的市场报价为2,450元/吨，Lubei的价格为2420元/吨，Hebei的价格为2,260元/吨。 在西南地区，四川 - 朱平地区的市场价格为2,420元/吨，云南的报价为2350元/吨。
港口市场价格为2,500元/吨，宁波（Ningbo）的价格为2,600元/吨，广州的价格为2450元/吨。
【重要信息】
本周（20240112-0118）中国的甲醇产量为170,3670吨，比上周增加了42,420吨，容量利用率为81.59％，每月增加2.55％。
【交易曲折】
期货急剧上升，大陆现场市场的情感表现仍然可用，企业疲惫的效果很好，下游的热情很高，西北地区的主流制造商减少了，只需要下游，就需要交易平稳，北路和南线的主流拍卖交易价格在2020-2060元/吨附近，终端只需要购买，交易者参与了高热情，主要价格和强劲的需求支持。 北部地区的下游企业继续竞标采购。 The profit of the ground refining was considerable, the raw materials inventory was high, the purchase volume declined, the snowfall affected the fading, the shipping cost fell, and the price of the traders' transfer orders was strong. Around 2410-2440 yuan/ton. The inventory range of the port area fluctuates, and the downstream needs to continue to pick up the goods. Silbang and Bohua MTO run at full load. The amount of ports continued to decline, the ports continued to destroy the warehouse, the foundation difference continued to strengthen, and the consumption was just needed under the neutral inventory. The narrow coal price continues to run and continues to operate. Near the end of the year, the daily consumption has fallen, the supply is loose, the cost support is limited. Balance, the current macroeconomic stimulus measures have weakened, the overall atmosphere of the commodity commodity is weak, and the market sentiment is slightly pessimistic. The overall lows of futures are mainly mainly, and do not chase high. (The above point of view is for reference only, and the basis for entering the market).
PVC
【market outlook】
Yesterday, V2405 closed at 5832, down 0.68%or 40 points, and the night disk V2405 closed at 5851, an increase of 0.33%or 19 points. In terms of spot, the PVC market is weak and shock, insufficient support in macro and market surfaces, low-cost sales, affected by the closure of the festival, the market traffic atmosphere slows down. 5800-5950 range. The price of the Guangzhou PVC market has weakened, the PVC disk is rising, and the spot market has sufficient supply. The stock market before the downstream festival is close to the end. The trading atmosphere of the spot market is light.
【重要信息】
1. Yesterday, the mainstream price of trade in the Wuhai area of the domestic electric stone market was reported to 2,900 yuan/ton. The road transportation impact caused by rain and snow on the weekend was alleviated. The pressure on the shipments of enterprises was reduced. 跑步。
【Trading straregy】
In terms of PVC, the supply side has declined slightly last week. Recently, rain and snow weather has increased, logistics transportation is not smooth, and the regional transmission of downstream electrical stones is unevenly strengthened. Pay attention to the adjustment of PVC. The demand side, last week's downstream products declined from the previous week, and there were still seasonal decline expectations in the future. There was a volume of exports last week. The inventory surface, last week's PVC factory library and clubs have accumulated libraries, and the overall inventory is still high. PVC's domestic demand is weak, the warehouse receipt pressure is high, but the valuation is low, the export support, and the short -term price of PVC. Long -term high inventory suppression, and there is still an incremental problem in inventory, which will suppress prices for a long time. (Opinions are for reference only, not as a basis for buying and selling).
PX
【market outlook】
Yesterday, the PX2405 main contract was closed at 8592 (+26/+0.30%), and the night disk closed at 8582 (-10/-0.12%). PX China CFR closing price was $ 1035/ton, an increase of $ 4/ton month -on -month.
【重要信息】
1. According to CCF statistics: As of last Friday, China 's PX operating rate was 84.5%, an increase of 1.3%month -on -month, 77%of the Asian PX operating rate, a week -on -month decrease of 1.3%, China' s PTA operating rate of 84%, a week -on -month increase of 0.2%.
2. Fujia's 1.4 million -ton PX device is currently close to full load operation. The device loaded in late December.
【Trading straregy】
Yesterday, PX paid a difference of $ 386/ton on PX, an increase of $ 8/ton from the previous month. In terms of supply, last week's domestic PX supply rebounded, and the overall decline in Asian PX. The downstream demand is still stable. PTA and cluster load are at the same time at the same time at the same time at the same period of history of 84%and 88.9%. In the first quarter, the downstream PTA Taiwan chemical industry and the new device of 4.5 million tons of chemical fiber were put into production expectations. The PX did not add newly put into production. Recently, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has continued to decline in US crude oil output. The inventory of commercial crude oil in the United States has fallen to low, and the International Energy Agency expects that global crude oil demand will increase, and oil prices are strong. Yamei arbitrage arbitrage windows are still existing, and the expected to support PX will be supported under the expected requirements of oil regulation. The PX price is expected to fluctuate strongly. (The above point of view is for reference only, and the basis of not entering the market)
PTA
【market outlook】
Yesterday, the main contract of TA2405 was closed at 5928 (+30/+0.51%), and the night disk was closed at 5922 (-6/-0.10%), and the PTA main port base 05 contract -35. In February, MopJ is currently valued at $ 649 /Ton CFR, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton month -on -month, PX is valued at $ 1035/ton, an increase of $ 4/ton month -on -month.
【重要信息】
Zhongtai Petrochemical 1.2 million tons of PTA device restarted, the device was parking near 12.20.
【Trading straregy】
Yesterday, the mainstream supply base of the mainstream of the TA port was 05-35, and the PTA spot processing fee was 336 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous month. Last week, polyester profits were compressed. Before the year, the demand for stocking of polyester factories increased. The start of the polyester was still at a high level of low burden at the same time. The PTA inventory of PTA inventory was still accumulated significantly under the high construction of polyester. At present, the downstream terminals have begun parking vacations one after another. Pay attention to the actual implementation of the downstream polyester production reduction. PTA's pressure in the first quarter of PTA still exists, the processing fee may still be reduced, and the PTA price difference will still weaken. (The above point of view is for reference only, and the basis of not entering the market)
聚丙烯
【market outlook】
Yesterday, PP2405 closed at 7429, rose 0.99%or 73 points. The night disk PP2405 closed at 7448, an increase of 0.26%or 19:00. In terms of spot, the domestic PP market price has risen steadily, with a range of 20-50 yuan/ton. PP futures continue to rise, and to a certain extent, it has boosted the spot market's mentality. In addition, the price of the petrochemical plant is partially raised to provide strong support for the cost of supply. However, the downstream is still cautious. The low prices of entering the market are only required to purchase. The inquiries within the day are light, and the overall transaction is relatively average. East China Rita price 7280-7430, North China 7300-7420, South China 7330-7400.
【重要信息】
1. Today, the two oil stocks were 555,000 tons, a month -on -month decrease of 35,000 tons.
【Trading straregy】
The PP has turned in the past two weeks. In terms of new capacity, PP has a total of 4.8 million tons of new devices in 2023. In terms of stock, the current PP maintenance is still too much. The demand side, the downstream construction decreased month -on -month, and the overall construction of the downstream was at the same time in the same period. During the early decline of PP, the fundamental pressure was released, and the pre -section was expected to support it. The short -term shock of PP was strong. The midline is empty. (Opinions are for reference only, not as a basis for buying and selling)
PF
【market outlook】
Yesterday, the PF2403 main contract was closed at 7510 (+20/+0.27%), and the night disk was closed at 7482 (-28/-0.37%). Ton or short delivery, the mainstream of Fujian is short delivery around 7400-7450 yuan/ton, and Shandong and Hebei mainstream 7350-7500 yuan/ton.
【重要信息】
Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester silk was available yesterday. As of 3:30 pm, the average production and sales estimate of 100-110%were estimated. Direct spinning shorters were available yesterday, with an average of 68%.
【Trading straregy】
Last week, the short fiber fell down, the processing fee was compressed, the short -standing inventory of the short fiber factory fell slightly, the downstream gauze factory started to start, and the net -pointed yarn finished product inventory fell high. At present, terminal demand has gradually weakened. Some gauze factories have foreign workers who have begun to return to their hometowns. The situation of weak supply and demand for short fibers is difficult to change. However, considering that the raw material inventory of the polyrastan plant is at a low historical level, there is a replenishment expectation in the raw material inventory of the gauze factory in the later period. Recently, the three major cotton spinning raw materials in addition to the cotton and adhesive short fiber in the short fiber of polyester fiber. Recently, the supply of adhesive short fibers to tighten the manufacturer's sale. 颤动。 (The above point of view is for reference only, and the basis of not entering the market)
乙二醇
【market outlook】
Yesterday, the main contract of the EG2405 futures was closed at 4588 (-2/-0.04%), and the night disk closed at 4629 (+41/+0.89%). The spot difference is near the 05 contract with water near 21-25 yuan/ton, and the futures basis difference is near the 05 contract near 2-5 yuan/ton.
【重要信息】
1. According to CCF statistics: As of January 18, the overall construction load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 65%(5.3%month -on -month), of which the hydrogen acid catalysis (synthetic gas) mortar glycol was started in 60.81% (Increase 6.98%from the previous month).
2. Hubei Sanning's 600,000 tons/year ethylene glycol device load dropped to a very low level, and currently runs near 20 %. A set of 380,000 tons/year ethylene glycol was stopped last week. The first series of maintenance of the first series of synthetic gas ethylene device with 1.8 million tons/year in Shaanxi Yulin has ended.
【Trading straregy】
Last week, the difference between the diol base was stronger. Since December, Saudi Arabia's ethylene glycol has poor parking devices. However, the domestic coal -made profit improvement has driven the overall start of the ethylene glycol. 影响。 Last week, the glycol port inventory continued to decline. However, with the continued improvement of the efficiency of the ethylene glycol device in the near future, there are still expected improvements in China. After the initial favorable in the early stage of ethylene glycol, the driver continues to rise. Surge in the 4450-4750 range. (The above point of view is for reference only, and the basis of not entering the market)
EB
【market outlook】
Yesterday, the EB2403 main contract was closed at 8830 (+65/+0.74%), and the night disk closed at 8794 (-36/-0.41%). In terms of spot, the spot price of the spot of Jiangsu's styrene is 8,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from the previous month. The average spot price of Pure benzene in East China was 7980 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton month -on -month.
【重要信息】
According to the statistics of Longzhong Information: As of January 22, 2024, the total commercial inventory of the samples of pure benzene port in Jiangsu: 76,500 tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from the previous inventory of 82,500 tons, a decrease of 7.27%month -on -month; Tons decreased by 180,900 tons, a year -on -year decrease of 70.28%. The total amount of sample inventory of the port of Jiangsu Pyornol: 99.24 million tons, an increase of 13.24 million tons from the previous period, and a month -on -month+15.40%. The commodity inventory was 73.74 million tons, an increase of 11.74 million tons from the previous period, and+18.94%month -on -month.
【Trading straregy】
Last week, the styrene was decreased, and the downstream hard glue started to decline. The output of the upstream pure benzene country continues to high, the downstream of pure benzene is strong, and the transactions of pure benzene paper goods are relatively active. At present, the inventory of pure benzene and styrene ports is at a low level in history, and the cost support of the ingogylene of the upstream raw materials still exists. The news of the annual production capacity of Zhejiang Petrochemical 1.2 million tons of styrene device faulty maintenance has led to the tight supply of the styrene. In February, the basis of the paper cargo was strong, the price of pure benzene petrochemical increased, and the price of the styrene rose sharply during the week. However, based on poor downstream profits, the price of styrene is expected to be limited at the expectation of the styrene cumulative library in January to February. (The above point of view is for reference only, and the basis of not entering the market)
液化气
【market outlook】
PG2403 night disk revenue is 4285 (+0.52%).
In the spot market, the average domestic transaction price in South China on January 22 was 5080 yuan/ton, a 10 yuan/ton from yesterday; the average import price in South China was 5170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton yesterday. East China market fell, and the mainstream transactions of civilian gas were 4400-4720 yuan/ton. The base price in Shandong District is 4590 yuan/ton, a month-on-month-30 yuan/ton. The quasi -priced quasi -priced price of Shandong ether was 5,300 yuan/ton, which is stable than yesterday.
【重要信息】
Longzhong Information Report:
Yesterday, the high -level resources in South China fell, the market was empty, and the market was lighter. As the Spring Festival was approaching the factory, the demand was declining. In addition, the low -cost resource shock in the peripherals was stable.
Yesterday, the East China market was mainly based on the market, and the low -level shipments were acceptable. The local supply is sufficient and the shipping pressure is large, but the rising crude oil in the morning supports the market mentality. At present, the low price space is limited. It is expected that the East China market may be converged one after another today.
Yesterday, the trading atmosphere of the civil air market in Shandong was mild. Although the upstream shipments improved, it was still difficult to achieve the purpose of effective libraries. Fortunately, the information support was obvious. It is expected that today's civilian gas market has stabilized. Yesterday, the atmosphere of the market trading after the ether was mild. Thanks to the decrease in external resources, the supply pressure in the area gradually relieved, and manufacturers were controlled. It is expected that the market will stabilize the market after today, and sporadic low will rise.
【Trading straregy】
The spot price is weak and runs, and the spot of water is affected by the water, the 2403 contract takes the delivery logic, the valuation is low, and the shock is weak in the short term. (The above point of view is for reference only, not as the basis for entering the market)
烧碱
【market outlook】
Yesterday, the SH2405 closed at 2820, rose 1.84%or 51 points. The night SH2405 closed at 2788, down 1.13%or 32 points. In terms of spot, the mainstream prices of 32%of the liquid base in Shandong held a stable price of 740 yuan/ton, a discount of 2,313 yuan/ton.
【重要信息】
1. Liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong today, 50-100 in some areas, 300-400 in the Luxi area, the factory of the Luxi area is 300-400, the Lunan and the Southwestern southwestern vehicles are leaving the factory 100-200, and Jiangsu Fuqiang 1.
【Trading straregy】
Last week, burning alkali was not much changed from the previous month, and the construction was high. In the demand side, alumina is still disturbed by ore tensions and irregular environmental protection restrictions. The short fiber of sticky glue decreased, and the work of printing and dyeing continued to stabilize, and high -alkaline foreign trade orders increased this week. Alkaline is high in construction, inventory dehydration, low profits, spin -alkaline spot exploration, obvious rising plates, and short -term price shocks are strong. (Opinions are for reference only, not as a basis for buying and selling).
苏打粉
【market outlook】
1) Futures market: The main force of pure alkali futures 05 contracts closed at 2085 yuan/ton (+2/+0.1%), the night disk closed at 2068 (-17/-0.82%), and the price difference between 05-09 was 37 (+6).
2) Spot market: Pure base price is reduced by individual prices, the average price of heavy alkali has dropped by 25 to 2375 yuan/ton, the average price of light alkali fell by 14 to 2286 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the severity is 89 (-11).Shahe heavy alkali stabilizes to 2300 yuan/ton, East China light -alkali stabilizes to 2300 yuan/ton
【重要信息】
According to Longzhong Information, yesterday, the domestic pure alkali market trended and operated, and the price fluctuated. Individual enterprises have fluctuated load and the output has steadily increased. During the downstream replenishment phase, the market's emotional performance is good. Individual enterprises have raised their low prices. Most enterprises are mainly stable in price, and high prices in individual areas have fallen. Enterprises are mainly connected to the low storage operation. The traders' quotation has been improved, the transaction performance is tepid, and it is difficult to issue high prices.
【Trading straregy】
On the one hand, some enterprises have fluctuated in load and Nissan decreases. On the other hand, the head manufacturers have raised the spot price, boosting the market's confidence in the market's current linkage rising. Yesterday, the daily limit of multiple contracts in pure alkali futures, and the speculation of the market increased rapidly. However, the time has reached the end of the month. Whether the price increase of the price increase of the pure alkali plant can continue to see the emotions of the downstream replenishment. If the downstream price increases, the spot price increase is difficult to maintain, and the futures return to the weak. However, if the downstream has not yet formed a consistency resistance, part of the replenishment, it is expected that the price of the supply end this week is expected to have a strong trend in the short term, but the time window is short. It is recommended to pay attention to the macro mood and the rhythm of downstream replenishment. The trend of long -term alkali is down, but there will be changes in the rhythm of winter storage. (The above point of view is for reference only, and the basis for entering the market).
玻璃
【market outlook】
1) Futures market: The main force of glass futures 05 contracts closed at 1825 yuan/ton (+67/+3.81%), the night disk was closed at 1803 (-22/-1.2%), and the price difference between 05-09 was 114 (+27).
2) Spot market: The average price of glass has stabilized to 2013 yuan/ton. The price of the corresponding delivery items of Shahe is 17,898 yuan/ton, the market price of Hubei large board has stabilized to 1970 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang Daban stabilizes 2190 yuan/ton.
【重要信息】
According to Zhuochuang's information, the domestic floating glass market price was mainly stable yesterday, and regional production and sales must be different. The price of North China is basically stable, Shahe manufacturers have maintained good production and sales, low inventory, weakened just needed, and the market transaction volume is mediocre. Mainly watching and looking at the market price in Central China continues to stabilize the trend, and the mentality of the middle and lower reaches is partially observed. Recently, the production and sales of most factories are difficult to balance; individual quotations in the South China market have been raised, most of which are stable and watched.
【Trading straregy】
The decline in production and sales yesterday did not continue the hot weekend transactions. With the spot price decline and downstream deep processing holidays, the midstream began to respond to the demand for deep processing replenishment after the festival, and the Shahe dealer replenished the library on the weekend to drive the production and sales of glass manufacturers. Pay attention to whether the replenishment behavior can continue. If the replenishment before the holiday is not as good as expected, the upper reaches of the glass continues to accumulate the library, and the glass will face greater pressure after the year. The current market focus is on the expectations of the order of the winter storage and replenishment and the year after the transaction. The price is expected to fluctuate this week. (Opinions are for reference only, and do not enter the market).
尿素
【market outlook】
Futures market: Hyeper futures disk surface is widened, and finally closed at 2048 (-23/-1.11%)
Spot market: Factory quotes in the mainstream area of urea have expanded, and the transactions are weak.
2140-2170 yuan/ton, Hebei small particles leave the factory 2160-2170 yuan/ton, Shanxi small and medium particles leave the factory at 2050-2120 yuan/ton, Anhui small particles leave the factory 2160-2170 yuan/ton, Xinjiang small and medium particles leave the factory 2070-2170, 2070-2170 Yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia was reported to 2060-2090 yuan/ton.
【重要信息】
On January 22, the urea industry was 168,800 tons, an increase of 00,700 tons from the previous working day, which is an increase from the same period last year.
14,400 tons; today's operating rate was 77.97%, an increase of 4.13%from 73.84%in the same period last year.
【Trading straregy】
The overall decline in the ex -factory quotation of urea in the mainstream of domestic areas has expanded, local leading down, local declines expand, and the receipt continues to weaken. The overall price of factory quotes in the mainstream delivery area leads the main decline, and the market mentality has been weakened. The enthusiasm of the downstream of the downstream has cools down. The manufacturer's receipt transaction is weak, the downstream operating rate is not high, the high -priced goods are low, and the context of traders is reduced. The new single transaction is blocked, and most enterprises collect their orders. The prices of provinces around the delivery area are mainly declined, and the market mentality is average. The enthusiasm of the downstream of the goods to cool down. The new single transactions of the manufacturers are blocked, the number of enterprises has fallen, and the market atmosphere is weakened. It is expected that the factory price will continue to be reduced in the short term. Today, mainstream urea companies such as Shandong and Henan led the factory quotation, and the market atmosphere continued to weaken. Traders were watching again, and the enthusiasm for stocking was low. The new single transactions were weak. The low price of downstream low -priced goods is low; the decline in the factory quotation in Anhui has expanded. As the atmosphere of the surrounding provinces weakens, the new single transaction volume of the enterprise has fallen. It is expected that the price of weak prices in the short term is mainly mainly based on the short -term. Factory quotes and declines from Shanxi and Hebei areas are mainly due to facts. Agriculture has just ended. The atmosphere in the area is generally performed. The price is expected to decline continuously. On the one hand, the current policy suppression impact has gradually faded. Linyi and Ningling District Compound Fertilizer Factory has the backlog of inventory. At the same time, Ningling Environmental Inspection, most factories are stopped. The end of the year is actively reduced. The end of the terminal with low enthusiasm, the mid -to -lower reaches of traders and terminal procurement in the Northeast region stagnate, and the overall demand has greatly weakened the domestic price support. On the other hand, the current raw material coal prices have been steadily weak, the spot price stops and rebounds, and the profit of coal -made urea is acceptable. Some parking devices in the early stage have resumed. The output rose to nearly 168,000 tons. As the enterprise's factory quotation rose again, the enthusiasm for getting the goods downstream to cool down, the enterprise's receipt of weakened, the new single transaction was weak, and the overall decline in the factory quotation expanded. On the whole, Ningling and Linyi compound fertilizer enterprises continue to hover at a low level, the cost inventory is high, the sales are not smooth, and the impact of environmental protection is also expected to remain low before the Spring Festival. At the end of January, the air -headed maintenance device in the southwest and southwestern regions will be resumed one after another. It is expected that Nissan will be restored to more than 180,000 tons, and the supply pressure will gradually increase. At the same time In the short term, resonance will be dominated by resonance. 5-9 Positive set temporarily wait and see. (The above point of view is for reference only, and the basis for entering the market).
早期审查
银河系
航运业
Researcher: Jia Ruilin
Investment Consultation Certificate Number: Z0018656
Container shipping index (European line)
【重要信息】
1. Spot price: The SCFI European Line released on the 1st/19th reported $ 3030/Teu, a month-on-month of -2.4%. The SCFIS European Line reported on 1/22 was 3509.06 points,+11.7%month -on -month.
2. HAPAG-LLOYD, a German container shipping group: we will continue to let the merchant ship detour the corner of the good hope until the notice will be notified. We will continue to monitor and review this situation. (from Jinshi Data APP)
3. According to CCTV News, on the 22nd local time, Ye Haiya Salea, a Hussean armed spokesman, issued a statement saying that they attacked a American cargo "Ocean Jazz" in the Gulf of Aden in Aden, Aden Gulf. 。 The United States has no response.
45. According to CCTV News, on the 22nd of local time, the EU 's senior representative of Foreign Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Berrely, said after the EU Foreign Minister' s meeting held on the same day that the EU council has approved the Red Sea escort plan proposed by Italy, France, and Germany. Berry said that the EU Council has passed the plan, but all member states are still negotiating when the plan is started.
【Supply and demand analysis】
In the middle and long term, the supply side of the supply side will increase the pressure on the supply of new ships in the new ship next year, and most of them are 15000teu on large ships+more than 1.9%of the amount of China exported to the European Union in December. 12.6PCT, but the latest inflation data in Europe and the United States exceeded expectations, resulting in slow interest rate cutting expectations. In the middle and long term, the rhythm of European and American replenishment should be paid attention to. In the short term, it is expected that the spot freight price before the Spring Festival is gradually approaching the stage high, especially after the festival enters the off -season of the transportation, and the freight rate will face a decline in pressure.
【Strategic Suggestions】
1. Single: Watch. The SCFIS European line 3509 points released on 1/22 is expected to be the highest point before the festival. The spot turning point of the Spring Festival has gradually appeared. However, the current surface is still more water. It is expected that the short -term disk surface is wide and uncertain. It is recommended to operate cautiously. At present, the upgrade of the Red Sea situation has weakened the marginal impact of container transportation. In the short term, we still need to focus on tracking the downstream booking situation and the evolution of the Red Sea situation. It is expected that the recent game will intensify and pay attention to controlling risks.
2. Arbitrage: 4-6 anti-suits and 10-12 anti-suits continue to hold.
(The above point of view is for reference only, not as the basis for entering the market)
Dry bulk transportation & cruise ship transportation
1. Dry loose cargo freight: 1/20, the Baltic dry bulk index BDI is reported at 1518 points,+1.1%month -on -month.
2. Oil transportation price: 1/22 Baltic crude oil transportation index BDTI reported 1393, a month-on-month of -2.11%, a year-on-year+0.65%. Refined oil freight: 1/22 Baltic refined oil transportation index BCTI reported 1139,+9.62%month -on -month, year -on -year+62.71%.
3. From January 15th to January 21, MySteel's total number of shipping in Australia and Brazilian iron mine was 21.529 million tons, a decrease of 1.34 million tons from the previous month. Australia's shipping volume was 15.088 million tons, a decrease of 651,000 tons month -on -month, of which 1.261 million tons from Australia to China, an increase of 68,000 tons from the previous month. Brazil's shipping volume was 6.442 million tons, a decrease of 689,000 tons from the previous month.
4. So far, the excess supply of several German refineries is particularly prominent. In addition, despite the decline in temperature, the domestic demand in Germany, including heating oil, is still slow. This is mainly because end users can rely on inventory, and they have previously stocks a lot in December. According to ARGUS, the level of private and industrial storage tanks was higher than the same period last year. Faced with sufficient domestic supply and slow demand, importers hesitated to import more oil to Germany. Imports are falling at both the Rhine and northern ports as relatively low inland prices squeeze importers' profits. Shipowners say this is also reflected in weaker demand for spot space in Germany. 本月跨莱茵河运往德国的产品需求急剧下降，导致运费下跌。
【Market Outlook】
In terms of dry loose goods transportation, the recent reduction of Australian -Pakistan -Pakistani mine has decreased. The Panama Canal authorities have adjusted the number of ships per day to 24 times. At present, the water level is still at a seasonal low level. It is expected that the off -season dry freight rate will continue to weaken.
BDTI has gathered up this week. At present, the situation of the Red Sea has influenced the efficiency of related routes, and the Suez ship -type shipping price of routes from the Middle East to the European route. If the future impacts continue, or continue to affect the ship's freight rate. In contrast, VLCC, the Red Sea crisis has limited impact on VLCC's emotions, the overall ship position is relatively sufficient, and the short -term VLCC freight has limited space.
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