12月15日全国钢材价格实时汇总！钢厂涨60，废钢全面上行！

下调企业21家，占比77.8%，调价幅度20-60元/吨；

持平的企业有6家，占比22.2%。

钢材期货市场价格

12月15日，国外钢市暴跌，承德平泉钢坯出厂价下调80%至3810元/吨含税。 15日午后螺蛳价格大幅上涨，钢材现货市场跟随上涨，成交量较前一交易日有所增加。

12月15日，蜗牛主力合约午盘价格企稳走强。 午盘价格4084，上涨3.31%。 DIF 和 DEA 均下降。 RSI三线指标位于68-92，运行于布林通道上限之上，进入超卖区域。 。

12月15日，17家外资钢厂下调建筑钢材出厂价10-80元/吨。

2、四大类钢材市场价格

建筑钢材：12月15日，全省31个主要城市20毫米五级抗震螺纹钢单价4105元/吨，较上一交易日下跌46元/吨。 本周螺纹钢产值由增转降，工厂仓库连续两周下降，社会仓库连续三周下降。 受物价上涨带动，本周表观消费量大幅下降。 短期来看，虽然近期处于消费淡季，但在宏观利空消息提振下，市场情绪并未减弱。

镀锌卷板：12月15日，全省24个主要城市4.75mm镀锌卷板单价4164元/吨，较上一交易日下跌43元/吨。 红色商品证券市场15日大幅走强，05合约收涨2.65%。 尾盘现货市场报价大幅下跌。 加调后，市场成交量高位向好，但大部分需求为现货交割或投机。 午后市场走高，现货市场大幅下跌。 一些商店在达到交易量后就休市了。 最近几天，宏观方面多头和空头混杂。 虽然产值并未根本下降，但复工复产进展缓慢。 此外，库存仍在增长。 基本面一直有利。 商店库存不多，但随着价格飙升，现货贸易商不敢大量补充库存并入市。

热轧板卷：12月15日，全省24个主要城市1.0mm冷板卷单价4596元/吨，较上一交易日下跌32元/吨。 15日，华中地区部分市场连日出货情况有所好转，库存增长明显，在途资源预售情况明显。 店主表示担心下个月的销售时间会缩短，后期库存会过剩，因此目前正在积极抛货。 主要是将货物投入仓库。 库存方面，据Mysteel统计，目前热轧钢厂库存为38.35万吨，同比增加5300吨。 社会库存117.62万吨，同比增加2.94万吨。 库存总量155.97万吨，同比增加3.47万吨。 本周社会库存大幅增加。

中国钢板网：12月15日，省内24个主要城市20mm普通板单价4195元/吨，较上一交易日下跌34元/吨。 据我的钢铁网数据显示，本周中板产值增加3800吨，工厂仓库减少1.3万吨，社会仓库减少2.12万吨​​。 码头维持刚需表现，整体库存持续增长。

3、原燃料市场价格

进口矿：12月15日，青岛进口铁矿石现货市场价格持续上涨，成交稀少。 湖南分送：天津港PB粉报价825元/吨； 秦皇岛港，BRBF 62.5%报价845元/吨。

焦炭：12月15日，焦炭市场稳中走强。 邯郸某小焦公司下调焦炭价格，干熄焦价格下调110元/吨，12月16日起执行。抗疫新政不断优化，市场容量逐步提升焦炭企业原料顺利到货，多轮涨价实施，焦炭企业利润逐步修复。 本周焦炭企业生产较为活跃，各地区均有一定程度的增产。 焦化厂内部库存居高不下，出货畅通。 目前，原材料成本持续上涨，大部分焦炭企业盈利仍倒挂，部分地区焦炭企业愿意涨价。 钢厂方面，钢厂原材料库存处于适度高位，成品价格持续上涨提振市场乐观情绪，钢厂盈利能力得到修复，复工去库存需求旺盛补货。

废铝：12月15日，全省45个主要市场废铝平均单价为2627元/吨，较上一交易日下跌1元/吨。 具体来说，近期钢厂根据自身库存计划调整价格，仍有需求的仍在降价吸货。 亏损巨大的短流程钢厂已全部开始停产休息。 虽然废铝尚未停止收集，但整体需求并不迫切。 市场方面，成品及钢坯价格持续走强，废铝市场仍有上涨希望。 目前废铝流通情况相对好转，但价格已处于较高水平，仍需谨慎。

废铝价格调整信息

我钢网讯：截至12月15日发稿，共有46家钢厂下调了废铝收购价格，2家钢厂下调了价格。

华东地区

12月16日8:00起【天津荣钢】上调30-50个：钢坯头3​​010个、法兰片3000个、优质一级3010个、优质二级3000个、优质五级2970个，厚板一级3000，厚板二级板材2990，五级厚板2960，专用破碎剪切2770，钢筋造粒3130，不含税，单位：元/吨。

12月16日，【河北石家庄老东海】上调30：新定价政策不变。 高品质A2990，高品质B2960，高品质C2930，重型A2900，重型B2860，重型C2820，2厚冷板小料2910，冲孔小料2870，08铝散片2810，不含税。

12月15日【河北保定燕钢】增加20：优质3110、重型A3070、重型B2970、中型A3030、中型B2930、优质铸铁2950、小剪3050、普通铸铁2750、炉一2950、​​炉二2930，炉三2830，炉四1450； 一级剪切料为2850，二级剪切料为2730，五级剪切料为1350，不含税，单位：元/吨。

12月15日【河北保定东海特钢】涨30：重B2910、重A2950、优质钢2990、精3040、薄料。 爆炸物，掺假重罚，带油脂拒收，4层厚度以下不予验收，单位：元/吨。

12月15日【河北保定纵横】增加30：磨料钢3070、法兰板3070、大定子弓板3000、优质一级3070、重型A2980、优质铸铁2790、厚板滚剪材3070、厚板级1 3070，钢筋球团3070，钢筋压块2990，不含税，单位：元/吨。

12月15日17:00起【河北保定东华钢铁】上调30：按6mm厚度执行2950，最高品质上调100； 合格铸铁2900，角槽1m*1.5m，板材1*1m，单位：元/吨。

12月15日17:00起【河北保定春兴特钢】上调30：以6mm厚度为基础，执行2930，最高品质上调100； 合格铸铁2880，角槽0.8*1.2m，板材0.8*0.8m，单位：元/吨。

12月15日【河北保定天柱】最新执行：优质3035（豆厚5以上，火车车轮，钢轨43以上，钢坯头，圆钢头，磨料钢），特级3015厚15以上，优质12厚度以上2985，重量A10厚度2955以上，不含税，需电车，单位：元/吨。

12月15日【河北保定安丰】增加10个，调整后：工字钢头、四厚冲孔豆3090、磨具钢3070、大钢2970、塔吊梁2870、马碲铁2970、无锈小转子定子2790元，防锈转子2940元，冷板2910元，三角硅钢片2910，铁豆3030元，钢头品质3090元，不含税，单位：元/吨。

12月15日【河北保定红星】增加30：精钢3000、优质钢2980、重废A2920、重废B2860、硅钢片2820、冷板废钢B2820、硅钢片破碎料2820（球团状） ））硅钢片破碎料2660片，优质钢棒头3000，主流钢棒头2980，碎钢棒头2940，马蹄2940，大钢锯末2760-2780，小钢锯末2690-2710，一般销售级别2620-2640，一般销售水平2520-2570，不含税，单位：元/吨。

12月15日【河北保定百工】部分降价50，调整后：普通废铝A3030、普通废铝B2970、专用破碎料2940、一级冲孔件2950、一级冲孔3100、二级一级冲孔3070，一级切割头3100元，钢筋头3100元，铁销2650元，不含税。

12月16日【山西大同长兴】增加50，调整后：一级料2940，准一级料2960，重废料2980，剪板2770，钢球2830-2880，统一料2860，混合料2910，熟原石2710-2840，履带原石2840-2890，二级碎料2610，一级碎料2760，不含税，单位：元/吨。

12月16日【山西新金山】涨20，执行价：16厚特级料2980、10厚特级料2950、一级料2870、10厚废钢2980、6厚废钢2920 、马蹄收停、钢棒颗粒、冲孔豆2980，不含税。

12月15日【山西高邑】增加20个，调整后：钢颗粒3005、冲孔材料3005、优质重废料（20mm）3025、特级重废料（14mm）3005、重废料一级（10mm） ）2965，重二级废料（8mm）为2925，重废料5级（6mm）为2885，厚板废料一级2995，厚板废料二级2915，不含税。

12月15日【山西稷山明富】废钢执行价格下调：重废特级（14mm）2980，重废一级（10mm）2940，重废二级（8mm）2890，中废一级（6mm）2840 、中废2级（4-5mm）2790、中废5级（3-4mm）2740、废2级（6-8mm）2940、钢筋一级（12mm）2930、钢筋头一级（16mm） 2930，二级钢筋头（8mm）2860，钢筋压块2890，厚板剪切材料（2-5mm）2850，不含税。

12月15日15:00起（两次）【山西晋南钢铁】废钢价格再下调20，总价下调40，具体价格以价目表及工厂为准时间。 单位：元/吨。

12月15日【内蒙古兴安盟建设分公司管业】增加30-100。 调整后：灰机铁2880-3060，加热板抛光破碎料2880-3060，制豆合格料3190，剪切合格料3060-3170，废铝新片2990，旧片2920，不热轧边丝压块2920，热轧2820，钢筋头2970-3070，不含税，单位：元/吨。

华北地区

12月16日【江苏扬州东城】部分价格下调50-80：新厚板及切断钢筋3050，重型废钢（马蹄铁、大中型工字钢）2950，中废钢2900，统一废钢2700、细料2500、钢锯末2890、数控锯末2820、普通锯末2750、锯末长丝2650、初级破碎料2920，不含税，单位：元/吨。

12月16日8:00起【江苏奉贤宏达钢铁（恒昌铸造）】调涨20，调整后：精炉料2500-2560，冷板型煤2640，普通锯末2580，钢锯末2720，冲孔料2860- 2920，不含税，单位：元/吨。

12月15日8:00起【江苏奉贤宏达钢铁（恒昌铸造）】调涨10，调整后：精炉料2480-2540，冷板型煤2620，普通锯末2560，钢锯末2700，冲孔料2840- 2900，不含税，单位：元/吨。

12月15日【山东泰安金冠（礼惠）】增加30，调整后的钢筋粒化2910，6mm以上新板2810，重废5-6厚2790，中废3-4厚2730-2770，免振动盘2760、剪板农铁2570-2670、铁屑2460、木屑块2510、机铁2730、初级破碎料2740、二级破碎料2540，不含税，单位：元/吨。

12月15日【山东鲁里】废钢、破碎料价格上调30，其他料价格维持不变：调整后，新料价格1-3080，新料2- 2960，车辆前桥3080，重型废钢3040，中废钢2960-2990，总材料2840，钢件2940，机身2750，专用破碎材料2840，初级破碎材料2800，二级破碎材质2750，重钢销2680，不含税，单位：元/吨。

12月16日【安徽郎溪鸿泰】减50：机生铁2680、重废2650、中废2600、切削料2500、粉碎锯末2280、专用球团暂停（纯钢筋16以上，10厘米以内，无锈迹，无水分），不含税，单位：元/吨。

12月15日【安徽郎溪宏泰】废钢招标价格调整：机生铁2730、重废钢2700、中废钢2650、边角料2550、碎木屑2330、专用球团暂停（纯钢筋16以上、10厘米以内、无锈） ，不含水分），不含税，单位：元/吨。

华北地区

12月16日【湖北利川华新】各类废铝价格下调30元/吨。

12月16日【湖北宜昌华鑫（坤冶）冶金】增20：钢棒头2740、磨具钢2740、厚板2740、一级重废2710、二级重废2640、生铁2530、铸件2590、粉碎原料2110-2210，不含税，单位：元/吨。

12月15日【湖南联港】除车牌和特1/特2外，其他料种均下调30元/吨。

12月15日【湖南象山钢铁有限公司】各类废钢采购价格下调20元/吨。

12月15日【湖南长沙铁管】所有废钢材质品种下调30个，单位：元/吨。

华北地区

12月16日（二次）【广东阳春鞍钢】各类废钢价格再降20，累计降40，单位：元/吨

12月15日【广东阳春鞍山钢铁有限公司】各类废钢价格下调20元，单位：元/吨。

12月15日，【广东韶钢】废钢价格每种材质下调20元，单位：元/吨。

12月15日【广东肇庆大围】涨20：废钢3080，优质重料3060，重废3020，厚剪2990，废钢2990，中剪2900，含税，单位：元/吨。

12月15日【广东南雄龙南航汇铝业】涨20：生铁重废2760-2780，工业冲切废料2750-2770，风切材（60厘米）2730-2750。 不含税。 注意严禁携带密封等危险物品。 单位：元/吨。

12月15日【广东肇庆】增20：工厂将停止螺纹钢球团化，生铁2780，新角2810，重废2780，分段2700-2750，工业废钢2700-2750，厚剪2650，首剪为2600，第二次切割为2450，第三次切割停止。 马口铁为2370-2450，刨花为2110-2350。 不含税。 单位：元/吨。

12月15日【广东鼎兴回收】增加30：废钢及模具2810，钢筋压制及边角料压制2780，纯钢棒头2800，重废料，生铁，硬钢2780，分割料及大料2750，中厚剪2680，不含税，单位：元/吨。

12月15日【广东敬业粤西钢铁】增30：小1型2970、小2型2930、一级剪切料2880、二级剪切料、三级剪切料停止、破碎料1型停止收集，破碎料2型2850，钢筋压块2940，出厂价不含税，以进厂时间为准，单位：元/吨。

12月15日（第二次）【广东肇庆胜利】再减20，累计减40：重废价格2810，不含税，单位：元/吨。

12月15日（第二次）【广东和平县月深钢铁】进一步削减20个，共削减40：5cm重废料2800个，尺寸要求长宽各50cm以内，严禁携带密封物品，所有钢丝绳均须经过公司现场检验——以货物为准，单位：元/吨。

12月15日（第二次）【广东金盛蓝】再减20，累计减40：钢筋球团3000个、纯钢棒头3000个、钢筋煤球2970个、全色废3000个，锻材3000，重废铝3000，重废一2950-2970，重废二2920，中废2820-2870，切削2750-2800，冲床2970。所有车料2870-2920，生铁2910 -2960，钢锯末和CNC为2710-2760，粉碎料为2870-2890，统一压制料为2470，普通锯末和切屑不收，不含税，单位：元/吨。

12月15日（第二次）【广东肇庆德润钢铁】再减20，累计减40：钢筋下料2970，废钢（新厚板）2970； 直钢筋，纯钢筋头2950； 磨削钢材、材料工字钢、轨道钢、火车车轮2970； 硅钢片停止； 热轧、热轧、废冲头2900； 优质重量 2950； 锻造材料，马蹄铁2970； 重废物2900； 机械生铁、高级不锈钢、铸钢件、生熟混杂品2900种； 粗剪2850，中剪2790，小剪及包装材料2650，普通锯末2730，不含税。

12月15日（第二次）【广东汝州、肇庆】再减20，合计减50：优质重型钢筋头2840，纯钢筋压制2840，钢筋2800-2830随机钢筋，重型废船板2810，钢模板2690 -2720，硬钢，生铁2810，热轧冲头2790-2820，热轧冲头2770-2790，热轧压力机2760-2790，中剪2750，小剪2570-2630，一级钢屑2540，普刨线材2440-2500，角钢2460-2550，总料2320-2420，不含税，单位：元/吨。

12月15日【广东肇庆中鑫华峰钢铁】上涨50：重废2810，风切材2780，中剪2610。自提，不含税，注意严禁携带密封等危险品。 【广东肇庆胜利】12月15日涨20，重废价格2790，不含税，单位：元/吨。

12月16日【广西桂林义马】增20-30：钢筋冲孔2900根； 新厚板2900； 磨料钢2900； 镀锌冲床、冷轧冲床、汽车冲床2900； 硅钢片2900； 电机壳及机用生铁2870； 车辆轮胎 2870； 旧法兰和钢筋头 2870； 车辆前轴2860； 热轧和冷轧冲压板2860； 风切材料2820； 剪切材料2790； 不含税，单位：元/吨。

12月16日【广西鑫茂再生资源回收有限公司】生铁、重废、细剪料、钢筋煤球、钢筋颗粒采购价格下调50：生铁2890，重废2840，一级钢筋颗粒3010，二级钢筋造粒2990，钢筋压块达2960，精剪2700，普剪停止，不含税，单位：元/吨。

12月15日【广西南宁平钢】涨20：重废2840，不含税，具体价格以价格表为准，单位：元/吨。

12月15日【广西南宁特钢】增20：精重2850、生铁硬钢2850、磨料废料2850、钢筋头2850、重废料粗剪2850、中厚料2820、中剪2770、薄剪停，冲片2790，废钢2790，刨花2440-2520，所有材料均不收，具体价格以厂家价格表为准，不含税，单位：元/吨。

12月15日【广西鞍钢】剪切料型、冷压饼、热熔压饼、轻料型价格维持不变，其他废铝料型价格下调30：配重型1 3260、配重类型 2 3230、冲孔类型 1 3130、冲孔类型 2 3260、冲孔类型 3 3260、冲孔类型 4 3200、压块类型 1 3220、压制类型 2 B2920、压制类型 3 2500、剪切类型 1 3180、剪切类别 2 3140 ，剪切3类3080，剪切4类3050，含税，单位：元/吨。

12月15日【广西钢铁】剪切料型、冷压饼、热熔压饼、轻料型价格维持不变，其他废铝料型价格下调50元/吨。

12月15日【广西钦州港广钢】部分降价50：配重1型3230、配重2型3200、冲孔1型3070、冲孔2型3230、冲孔3型3230、冲孔4型3160、型煤1 型 3180，型煤 2 A3070，型煤 3 2440，剪切材料类型 1 3110，剪切材料类型 2 3080，剪切材料类型 3 3020，剪切材料类型 4 3000，加工肉桂 1 类 2750，加工肉桂 2 类 2530，含税，单位：元/吨。

12月15日【广西桂林永达】增加60：冷热板废料2810、工业纯废料2780、钢筋压制2860、一级纯压制2830、二级压块2800、五级压块2550、剪切物料杂压制块2350、高不锈钢2860、轻质废铝2810、一级剪切料2780、二级剪切料2680、五级剪切料2470、比重1.5破碎料2650、刨花2030、薄料1830，不含税，单位：元/吨。

东北地区

12月15日【宁夏兴华钢厂】废钢收购价执行：剪料3-6厚2690，6厚角槽板2960，10厚角槽板3010，16厚及以上角板3040槽板，初级破碎料2870-2940，二级破碎料2770，钢头3040-3090，含税，单位：元/吨。

西北地区

12月16日，【辽宁抚顺特钢】废钢价格下调150元/吨。 （中国钢铁网、我的钢铁网）

3、预测：钢材价格将...

导航

《扩大内需战略规划(2022-2035年)》政策出炉，铁矿石再次冲天！ 一下子就创新高了！ 美联储联邦公开市场委员会公布的最新利率决定与市场预期一致，通胀有所放缓。 至50个基点。 当前，多重利空因素“齐头并进”，门店激情再次被点燃！ 今天钢价应该如何走，跟随我往下看……

一、影响钢材市场的因素如下：

统计局：11月国民经济总体持续复苏

农业生产形势良好，粮食产值再创新高； 2、工业生产持续下滑，高技术制造业下滑较快； 3、服务业生产放缓，现代服务业增长态势良好； 4、市场销售小幅下降，基本生活用品销售和网络零售额快速下降； 五、固定资产投资规模持续扩大，高技术产业投资较快下降； 六、货物进出口持续下降，贸易结构持续优化； 七、就业形势基本稳定，城镇调查失业率小幅上升； 八、居民消费价格降幅环比收窄，工业生产者出厂价格环比上涨。

分析师观点：随着疫情防控新政策调整、市场货运畅通、新一届领导班子组建，稳定经济发展成为重中之重。 各项新政策措施逐步落地，国民经济保持复苏态势，资金投资规模持续扩大。 市场价格总体稳定，新动能持续增长，国外消费能力持续扩大，钢材需求增加，对钢材价格走势不利。

统计局：11月我国粗钢产量248.47万吨 同比下降3.4%

2022年11月，我国粗钢日均产值248.47万吨，同比增长3.4%； 生铁日均产值226.63万吨，同比增长0.8%。 钢材日均产值363.97万吨，同比增长1.8%。 11月份，我国粗钢产量7454万吨，环比下降7.3%； 生铁产值6799万吨，环比下降9.7%； 钢材总产值10919万吨，环比增长7.1%。

分析师观点：从统计数据可以看出，受10月份“五一”假期以及疫情控制影响，钢铁企业生产进度受到影响。 随着疫情好转，11月份粗钢、生铁、钢材产值有所下降。 但进入淡季后，项目进度有限，终端采购需求增加，铁矿石、焦炭价格持续上涨，成本面维持低位。 钢企巨额亏损减少，钢厂停产检修较多，11月份粗钢、生铁、钢材日均产值同比增长，市场供给回升，利空钢价。

美联储如预期将通胀上调50个基点

在去年最后一次鸽派会议上，美联储如期将通胀上调50个基点，将基准利率上调至15年高点4.25%-4.5%，并重申持续通胀“可能”是合适的。 据悉，“点阵图”将今年终端利率下调至5.1%，略超市场预期，并预测2024年之前利率将维持低位，不会出现加息。

分析师观点：15日下午3点，美联储宣布通胀率为50个基点。 2022年最后一次通胀将实施，这更符合市场预期。 欧元价格随之上涨，大宗商品价格再次上涨。 铁矿石，同样是大宗商品，价格持续下跌，钢企生产成本再次上升，多数钢企巨额亏损减少，停产可能增加，钢材市场供应量有望增加，且部分规格可能缺货，导致钢材价格暴跌。

央行举行6500万元MLF操作强化操作规模

12月15日，央行宣布，为保持建行体系流动性合理充裕，建设银行将开展6500万元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作及公开市场逆回购2022年12月15日起运营20万元，充分满足金融机构的需求。

分析师观点：随着疫情变化，经济下行压力较大。 央行引导金融机构加大对实体经济的支持力度，推动信贷宽松，降低实体企业融资成本。 此次央行加大新增贷款力度，是为了加强对市场的调控。 常年注入流动性有利于稳定市场预期，稳定历年流动性运行，提振市场投资预期，扩大钢材需求，利空钢价。

中共中央、国务院印发《扩大内需战略规划纲要（2022-2035年）》

实施扩大内需战略的远期目标是：消费和投资规模迈上新台阶，完备的内需体系全面构建； 加强国外市场建设取得更大成效，关键核心技术取得重大突破； 我国参与全球经济合作与竞争将继续具备新优势。 国外市场国际影响力大幅提升。

中汽协：11月整车出口保持高位

据中国汽车工业商会统计分析，2022年11月汽车出口将维持高位。2022年11月，整车企业出口汽车32.9万辆，同比增长2.5%，环比增长环比下降64.8%。

统计局：11月份规模以上工业增加值同比下降2.2%

国家统计局数据显示，11月份，规模以上工业折旧值环比实际下降2.2%。 从同比看，11月份，规模以上工业折旧值环比增长0.31%。 1-11月，规模以上工业折旧值环比下降3.8%。

2、现货市场

螺纹钢：操作偏强

目前，螺纹钢产值持续上升。 产量增加的原因是钢厂完成了年末产能目标并交付了冬储订单。 预计后期产值将维持目前水平，当前终端需求仍将维持淡季水平。 考虑到近期价格上涨主要是市场信心恢复带动，且多数贸易商提价意愿较强，预计明日螺纹钢将以稳中上涨为主。

方坯：走强

今日钢坯主流价格走强，期货库存行情上涨。 主流地区报价上涨20-60元/吨。 证券市场大涨以及抗疫新政重大调整后，“稳经济”政策预期升温，利空新政反复叠加，带钢价格仍走出大幅下跌走势。 但目前已进入需求淡季，可能会影响钢坯回调空间。 预计下周钢坯价格将小幅上涨。

中盘：稳定至强劲

由于近期大部分门店资源较少，随着发货成本下降，门店报价也随着钢厂的下滑而下跌。 但部分地区价格在没有需求支撑的情况下大幅上涨。 据悉，有店主反映，由于连日来钢厂频繁降价，冬储仓订单价格也大幅下跌。 码头企业对此观望态度增强，近三天锁仓订单大幅下降。 预计下周中板市场价格窄幅调整。

Bar: Stable to strong

The spot prices in the galvanized bar market will be lowered tomorrow, and the red series securities are in full swing, boosting market confidence, and the overall transaction volume is normal. According to market feedback, the spot price is too high and is not recognized by downstream companies. Orders are still based on demand, causing overall market transactions to be unsmooth. Most traders have a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market and are not very willing to stock up in summer, which has inhibited the sharp upward trend of bars. It is expected that bar prices will mainly rise steadily next week.

Aluminum: stable to strong

Tomorrow, the day screw will remain red and go up, and spot traders will mainly pick up materials. The current market is easy to rise but difficult to fall. Most transactions are concentrated on high-priced resources, while transactions of high-priced resources are weak. At present, the decline in raw material costs has significantly boosted the market activity, and H-beam transactions are generally normal. It is expected that the aluminum market price will rise steadily next week.

Profile: Keep running smoothly

After a slight short-term decline in raw materials and pipe factory price cuts in the spot market, the overall market demand is sluggish and cannot support the continued strength of prices. Most traders are mainly waiting and watching. There is no clear summer storage plan, and social inventories are still at a low level. In a market situation where supply exceeds demand, demand for downstream profiles has not improved significantly, and price increases have been limited. It is expected that the profile market price will stabilize next week.

3. Raw material market

Blank: slight decrease

Tomorrow's red series of securities will collectively hold red positions, giving the market a certain price support sentiment, and downstream enthusiasm for ordering bad materials has resumed. The spot price in the warehouse was quoted at 3880-3890 yuan (tax included), and the transaction volume gradually decreased. Considering that the production costs of steel mills are still under low pressure, supporting the attitude of billet mills, billet prices are expected to be stable to strong next week.

Iron ore: stable to strong

Although the current market resource circulation is limited, the shipments of mining companies are relatively stable. Steel mills maintain on-demand procurement, and the overall trading atmosphere is acceptable. Affected by the recent strength in the iron concentrate market, ore processing quotations are firm, but steel mills maintain on-demand replenishment, and demand has not changed much. Due to the high prices, traders have limited operating space, so they should operate with caution. It is expected that the foreign mining market will fall back next week.

Coke: Temporarily stable operation

As the lignite arrival situation improves and profitability improves, most coking companies in the region have increased production to varying degrees, the resumption rate has declined, and freight transportation has begun to return to normal. Coke companies are shipping smoothly, and shoe factory inventories are running at a low level. Steel mill earnings have recovered slightly recently, and coke inventories are mostly at low levels. Supported by the demand for reserve replenishment in summer, coke procurement has been relatively active. The coke market is expected to stabilize and improve next week.

Scrap aluminum: upward direction

Securities will fall tomorrow, the market still has expectations for summer storage, and overall shipments are normal. Some steel companies with excessive inventory have cut prices to attract goods. It is currently the off-season for finished products, steel companies have limited income, and there is limited room for decline in scrap aluminum. However, market resources are tight and currently in the traditional winter storage stage, there is still some support for scrap aluminum. It is expected that the market will be stable and upward tomorrow.

Pig iron: Mainly stable and in tune

Red securities rose across the board, steel and scrap prices fell slightly, and shopkeepers' attitudes improved. However, with the decline in pig iron prices, downstream companies have limited acceptance of high-priced resources, are more cautious in purchasing, and the market trading atmosphere is relatively cold. All pig iron companies have a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and raw material costs support pig iron prices. However, downstream demand continues to decline, putting pig iron prices in a dilemma. It is expected that the foreign pig iron market will remain stable and wait-and-see tomorrow.

4. Comprehensive Suggestions

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve released its latest interest rate decision, which was consistent with market expectations and reduced inflation to 50 basis points, which was generally bullish for steel prices. The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Strategic Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035)", which pointed out that the strategy of expanding domestic demand must be firmly implemented and the potential of domestic demand must be continuously released. Several other steel mills reported suspending production and limiting production, and the steel market was accelerated by strong expectations and high costs. It is expected that steel prices will be stable to strong tomorrow, with a range of 20-30.

Operational suggestions: It is recommended that traders who have already taken the goods should choose the opportunity to ship when the price is high, and those who have not yet taken the goods should patiently wait for the rebound and be cautious in buying low prices.

(China Steel Network)

4. The Fed's inflation rate is 50 basis points, and coke prices will rise for the third round. Will steel prices fall?

As 2022 enters the last month, foreign steel prices have shown an "off-season correction" trend since November. Foreign macro news this week has been relatively light, and the market's focus is mainly on overseas Fed inflation. Japan's November deflation indicator CPI, which was just announced on the morning of December 13, rebounded more than expected, further strengthening the market's expectations of 50 basis points of Fed inflation this month. , affected by this negative impact, Hong Kong stocks fell, gold prices rose, and bulk prices were boosted to a certain extent.

On December 13, a report released by the Finger Research Institute showed that in November, the activity of second-hand housing transactions in many core cities in China increased. Among them, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Tianjin stopped falling. However, the second-hand property market in 10 major cities is still in a downward trend year-on-year.

The finger report emphasized that second-hand housing transaction volume declined in November in Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Tianjin and other places. Among them, nearly 2,200 second-hand residential units were sold in Shanghai in November, the highest number in a single month in the second half of the year. In November, the price of second-hand housing in Shanghai increased by 0.37% year-on-year, falling for 20 consecutive months.

Judging from the real estate data released by the Finger Research Institute, new policies such as the purchase of a first-time apartment without a loan and the increase in the down payment ratio for second-home apartments have promoted the increase in second-hand housing transactions and brought a glimmer of light to foreign housing prices in the cold wave.

Since November, with the strong support of the New Financial Policy in the real estate industry, the capital shortage of some enterprises has eased. However, the main problem that confuses housing prices is the lack of willingness of villagers to buy houses, and real estate sales data have been hovering at the top. So, can the downward trend of steel consumption in the real estate industry be reversed in 2023?

Since the second half of 2022, the area of ​​farmland purchased by the top 100 foreign real estate companies and the area of ​​new real estate construction have both increased by more than 45%. From this point of view, steel consumption in the real estate industry will continue to maintain a low level in the first half of this year. This will also be an important factor affecting last winter storage.

At present, the social inventory of steel has been at a high level in recent years. In other words, even if the new year is approaching, steel traders do not have much steel inventory. According to common sense, steel traders should replenish their stocks and actively participate in winter storage. Why steel Did traders have a weak willingness to stockpile last winter?

Third, after more than a month of correction, domestic steel prices are close to the 4,000 yuan mark. Steel traders feel that there is little time to make profits in the steel market after the year. First, there is insufficient confidence in the decline of the real estate industry and manufacturing industry this year. We are afraid that steel demand will not be released in large quantities after the holidays.

Many steel traders said that whether they will have inventory at the end of the year depends on the new winter storage price policy of steel mills. If, like some steel mills in the Northeast, a winter storage price of around 3,550 yuan is given, they will definitely consider buying a batch of steel for winter storage. 存储。

Since the second half of the year, the price of steel raw materials has been at a low level, and the cost of steel production has remained high. Most steel mills are operating at a huge loss. As of December 13, the production cost of rebar in foreign long-process steel mills was 3,950 yuan/ton, with the The production cost of steel is 4,080 yuan/ton. Steel traders want steel mills to set a lower winter storage price, but they may not be able to fulfill it.

There is news in the market that some coking companies in the south are planning a third round of price increases for coke ex-factory prices. The previous two rounds of price cuts have been implemented, with an increase of 300-330 yuan/ton, which will directly reduce steel production costs by about 140 yuan/ton.

If the third round of coke ex-factory prices falls tomorrow, coupled with the recent continuous decline in iron ore prices, steel production costs will increase the support for steel prices, and the room for steel price increases at the end of the year will be further reduced.

Tomorrow the last Fed inflation report for 2022 will be released at 3 pm This time the Fed's inflation target of 50 basis points is almost certain, but the statements of senior Fed officials will attract more attention, especially after deflation peaks, how long will the Fed maintain inflation? Will peak interest rates continue to fall? The dovish or hawkish rhetoric of senior Federal Reserve officials will receive more attention, and will also determine the short-term price trend, which will intensify steel price fluctuations to a certain extent. If the market is more hawkish in this analysis, it will further increase market expectations and boost commodities, which will be negative for steel price trends.

At present, steel mills in East China have not yet issued a new policy for winter storage. According to market understanding, most steel mills have limited profit margins due to heavy losses all year round, and traders are generally not willing to stock up in winter. Therefore, steel mills are not willing to stock up in winter. In terms of planning, most of them may adopt self-storage. This also determines that under the background of continued improvement in the macroeconomic atmosphere and sluggish expectations, it was more difficult for prices to rebound during the winter storage period last year and will continue to be strong.

When it comes to iron ore, the supply side is currently relatively stable, with global shipments rising slightly and arrivals at ports declining slightly. On the demand side, the current average daily hot metal output value of steel plants is about 2.2116 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16,500 tons. Because steel plants continue to suffer huge losses, iron ore prices have been suppressed to a certain extent, and the trend is not as good as that of Shuangjiao. However, due to the gold mine inventory in the factory It is relatively low, there are still expectations for replenishment, and the price is relatively strong. Overall, the raw material side is strong, squeezing the profits of steel mills.

Taken together, before the Central Economic Work Conference is held, the market has strong negative expectations for it. At the same time, under the current adjustment of the new epidemic prevention and control policies, expectations for demand recovery after this year's National People's Congress are also increasing. For this reason, the market price is still strongly driven. At the same time, from the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, although the pressure for rising demand in the off-season is still there, from the perspective of inventory performance, the contradiction is not outstanding, and market resources in some regions are limited, traders and steel mills are more willing to raise prices, and steel prices are easy to With the characteristics of rising and being difficult to fall, it is expected that there will be further room for exploration. (China Steel Network comprehensive latest steel prices, Zhongyuan Securities)

5. After strong expectations, what will be the changes in hot-rolled prices and supply?

Driven by strong expectations and strong support for raw materials, demand has been relatively limited as the weather has turned colder. From the perspective of steel prices, galvanized prices have fallen relatively significantly since the end of November, while hot rolled prices have cautiously followed the rise. Taking Shanghai Panzhihua Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. as an example, the difference between hot and cold prices is 360 yuan/ton, which is more conducive to supporting hot rolling prices. According to the inspector's understanding, hot-rolled short-process production companies are relatively good at receiving orders. At present, Baowu and Anben have issued new price adjustment policies in January, in which hot-rolled prices have dropped by 150-200 yuan/ton. From the supply side, steel mills have not mandated steel trade orders since November, and the market is at low inventory.这么从生产产品结构来看，热轧12月供给具体情况如下：

据中联钢督查统计：19家热轧钢厂12月份热轧生产计划总数为265.2万吨，同比下降10.42万吨，同比增速为4.09%，环比降低20.4万吨，环比涨幅7.14%。日均产值为8.55万吨，同比下降0.6万吨，同比增速为7.06%。

全省拥有钢坯轧制的28家热轧钢厂12月份热轧（固溶）生产计划总数为288.8万吨，月同比下降8.42万吨，同比增速为3%；日均产值为9.32万吨，同比降低0.03万吨，同比涨幅为0.32%；冷硬卷计划总数为28.6万吨，同比降低8.3万吨，同比涨幅为22.49%。

（中联钢联合钢铁网）

6、下游钢厂巨亏情况下，焦炭是否还有下降空间

我的钢铁网讯：11月中旬随着成材市场好转以及下游钢厂开始补库，焦炭市场迎来大跌。9日焦炭第四轮提出降价100/110元/吨全面落地，累计提涨300/330元/吨。下游钢材价钱也同步下降，焦价钢价均涨回10月涨价前低点。焦价钢价下跌后，焦钢企业仍在巨亏，钢厂巨亏幅度小于焦企，钢厂测光价继续下降排斥情绪上升，在此情况下，焦炭能够继续下降，或则突破下半年低点价钱呢？小编将从以下几个方面一一详解：

从钢厂复工来看钢厂巨亏提产积极性不高，焦炭需求量增长。12月9日我网督查247家钢厂转炉炼钢产能借助率82.00%，同比增长0.61%，环比降低7.88%；钢厂盈利率22.51%，同比增长1.30%，环比增长57.14%；日均铁水产值221.16万吨，同比增长1.65万吨，环比降低22.46万吨。

从钢厂收益来看钢厂仍处巨亏当中，离巨亏减产有100元空间。10月末钢厂巨亏、大幅减产时，天津坯料吨钢赢利-267元/吨；6月中旬钢材上涨，钢厂巨亏减产时，对应天津坯料吨钢赢利-198元/吨。截至12月14日督查，天津坯料吨钢赢利-135元/吨，结合这两次钢厂减产时巨亏力度，在钢材价钱、原料金矿价钱不变情况下，焦炭每下降100元/吨，铁水成本降低约40元/吨，预估焦炭能够下降空间为200元/吨。

从炼焦供应来看随着焦企巨亏幅度减小，部份赢利焦企开始提产。截至9日督查，全样本独立炼焦产能借助率66.5%，周同比上升1.8%，焦炭日均产值66.1万吨，周同比降低1.8万吨。

从炼焦收益来看焦企赢利好转，供应有上升预期；原料焦煤价钱坚挺且仍在下降，焦企为减轻巨亏有继续提出降价意愿；巨亏幅度大于钢厂，因而钢厂测光价继续提涨排斥情绪较大。截至12月8日督查，我网督查30家独立焦企平均吨焦赢利-88元/吨，周同比降低80元/吨。

从焦炭社会库存来看似乎上周供应降低、需求降低，并且仍处于需求>供应状态，焦炭整体社会库存继续增长，焦炭供需保持紧平衡。9日我网督查焦炭社会库存875.04万吨（全样本焦企焦炭库存+247家钢厂焦炭库存+四大港口焦炭库存），周同比降低22.29万吨，月同比降低62.82万吨，年环比降低111.24万吨。

从贸易商角度来看目前港口贸易商恐高心理上升，多积极出货，港口贸易资源价钱大涨。14日港口准一湿熄焦贸易领料价报2800元/吨，较今日上调20元/吨。

总体来看，供需低迷情况下，焦炭价钱目前有进一步下降空间。本轮下跌是由钢材价钱大跌导致，因而钢材价钱能够有所突破，也决定着焦价下跌空间。考虑到当前钢厂收益以及市场对钢材价钱后期走势较为消极心态，继续下降难度较大；反之，若是钢价保持偏强态势，那焦价也将有所突破。后期需重点关注成材价钱走势以及焦钢企业复工变化。（我的钢铁网）