【大话钢市】九月份中国钢材价格走势预测报告

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本期简介：

●市场回顾：环保主题持续发酵，期货钢价再创新高；

●供给分析：粗钢日产量小幅下降，钢材出口量维持低位；

●需求分析：房地产基建增速放缓，社会库存小幅增加；

●成本分析：铁矿石、焦炭整体上涨，钢企利润维持高位；

●宏观分析：经济数据全线回落，货币政策不松不紧；

●综合观点：虽然7、8月钢价大幅上涨很大程度上透支了旺季预期，但随着环保问题持续发酵，尤其是北方钢厂限产期间，预计市场供应将萎缩。供暖季节已明确。 依然坚强。 随着9月份钢材消费旺季的到来，国内钢材市场供应偏紧且均衡的局面将进一步显现，预计整体钢材价格仍将震荡上行。

市场回顾：8月份钢价再创新高

1、市场回顾

8月份，除月中少数几天出现短暂下跌外，其余月份国内钢材价格均大幅上涨，不断刷新近五年来的价格新高。 截至8月25日，钢材指数收于4340元/吨，较上月末大幅上涨320元/吨，环比上涨7.96%，价格上涨1700元/吨与去年同期相比，同比增长64.39%。 8月24日，螺纹钢期货主力合约RB1801收盘价3858元/吨，较上月末上涨262元/吨，环比上涨7.29%。 在环保主题不断刺激下，本月现货价格轮番上涨，全线创出新高。

8月份国内钢价大幅上涨的主要推动因素来自于环保政策的持续发力。 7月29日，国务院总理李克强要求坚定不移地开展取缔“地条钢”和化解过剩产能工作，防止“地条钢”死灰复燃； 7月31日，国务院副总理张高丽要求全力做好秋冬季大气污染防治工作，制定错峰停产限产方案； 8月24日，环境保护部印发《京津冀及周边地区2017-2018年秋冬季大气污染综合治理行动计划》，明确指出在石家庄等重点城市唐山、邯郸、安阳等地，供热季度钢厂产能限制在50%以内，以高炉产能为基础，并利用公司实际用电量核定。 上述信息结合第四批中央环保督察组的启动和部际联席会议开展禁带钢专项抽查，市场产生了供应收缩的强烈预期，推动钢价上涨。急剧上升。

综上所述，8月份国内现货钢材价格大幅上涨。 那么接下来的9月份钢材价格走势将会如何呢？ 9月，国内钢材市场将迎来传统消费旺季。 市场需求会持续改善吗？ 采暖季限产话题再次发酵。 对市场供给的形成会有多大影响？ 铁矿石、焦炭价格的大幅上涨能否持续？

供给分析：粗钢日产量小幅下降

●8月份社会库存小幅上升

●7月份粗钢日均产量小幅下降

●7月份钢材出口持续低位

●下月钢铁产能预计释放

2、供给分析

一、国内钢材库存现状分析

监测库存数据显示，截至8月25日，国内主要钢材库存总量964.35万吨，较7月末增加8.8万吨，增幅0.92%，较7月末增加31.9万吨，增幅3.42% ，从去年同期来看。 其中螺纹、线材、热轧、冷轧、中板库存分别为440.9万吨、106.75万吨、205.7万吨、109.95万吨、101.05万吨，增长4.68% 、较7月末分别下降6.28%、6.35%。 %，同比增长4.42%，同比增长5.76%。 本月社会库存总体变化不大，基本符合市场预期，库存对价格的影响也有所减弱。

从钢厂库存来看，中国钢铁工业协会数据显示，截至8月上旬，会员企业钢材库存1222.41万吨，环比减少7.88万吨，降幅0.64%。月; 较7月上旬减少71.9万吨。 吨，减少5.55%； 减少114.5万吨，同比下降8.57%。

与去年同期相比，全国钢材市场库存增加32万吨，钢厂库存减少115万吨。 市场总库存及钢厂库存较去年同期减少82万吨，上月减少63万吨。 8月份，产业链库存同比降幅扩大，证实市场供应仍处于紧平衡状态，为钢价上涨提供了有力推动。

2、国内钢材供应现状分析

从钢厂产量来看，根据国家统计局数据，2017年1-7月我国粗钢、生铁、钢材产量分别为49155万吨、42420万吨、64856万吨，同比-同比分别增长5.1%和3.5%。 和1.1%。 其中，7月份粗钢、生铁和钢材产量分别为7402万吨、6207万吨和9667万吨，同比分别增长10.3%、5.1%和2.7%。 7月份粗钢、生铁、钢材日均产量分别为238.77万吨、200.23万吨、311.84万吨，比6月份日均产量分别下降2.18%、2.61%和4.12%。 粗钢日均产量仅在今年4月和6月达到历史第三高水平。

据中国钢铁工业协会统计，2017年8月上旬会员钢企日均粗钢产量186.79万吨，环比增加1.6万吨，增幅0.87%； 全国平均日产量预计235.93万吨，环比减少7.06万吨，降幅2.91%。

三、国内钢材进出口现状分析

从钢材进出口数据来看，海关总署数据显示，2017年7月，我国出口钢材696万吨，环比增加15万吨，同比减少32.6%； 进口钢材98万吨，比上月减少15万吨。 吨，同比下降13.3%； 1-7月累计出口钢材4795万吨，同比下降28.7%； 累计进口钢材779万吨，同比增长2.6%。

根据生产和进出口数据测算，7月份我国粗钢和钢材资源供应量分别为6769万吨和9069万吨，同比分别增长18%和6.7%。 1-7月份粗钢和钢材资源供应量分别为44901万吨和60840万吨，同比分别增长11.0%和4.6%。

四、下月钢材供应预期

综合来看，7月份受高温天气持续加剧和环保影响，部分钢厂加大检修力度，国内粗钢日均产量环比小幅下降。 8月份环保督察有重新启动的趋势。 河北唐山轧钢厂煤改气，邯郸钢厂限制烧结，廊坊前进钢铁全面停产，山东、河南等地环保钢厂限产，市场供应预计萎缩。 依然坚强。 预计8月份粗钢日均产量将与7月份基本持平。

需求分析：房地产和基建投资增速全线回落

●8月份钢材需求环比下降

●9月份钢材需求有望回升

三、需求情况

1、钢材销售走势分析

8月份国内终端需求表现相对疲弱。 钢材价格的暴涨，导致建设项目的建设成本大幅上升。 终端用户对高价观望心态加剧，采购变得谨慎。 8月份日均钢材采购量环比大幅下降12.48%。 7月投资数据全线下滑，房地产投资、销售面积单月同比增速大幅下滑至4.82%和2.02%，环比分别回落3.05和19.35个百分点。 同样，基础设施投资同比增速也有所回落。 至15.81%，下降1.49个百分点。 房地产和基建投资增速放缓在一定程度上打击了市场前期对需求的乐观情绪。

2、国内建设投资额度分析

从主要投资看，2017年1-7月固定资产投资同比增长8.3%，增速比1-6月回落0.3个百分点。 其中，7月份全国固定资产投资增速同比回落至6.8%，创今年新低。 三大类投资增速全面回落：制造业、房地产投资增速双双大幅回落，创2016年8月以来新低； 基础设施投资增速小幅回落，印证了财政支出增速回落。

房地产投资增速大幅回落。 1-7月，房地产投资累计同比增速7.9%，比上月回落0.6个百分点。 7月份增速大幅回落3.0个百分点至4.8%。 分项指标中，反映现有投资项目施工面积累计增速小幅回落0.1个百分点，增量投资项目新开工建设面积累计增速回落2.6个百分点但土地购置面积累计增速继续提高2.3个百分点。 个百分点，预计未来房地产投资增速仍将有一定支撑。 需求方面，商品住宅销售同比增速回落2.6个百分点至18.9%。 客观地讲，当前房地产销售增速仍处于较高水平。 预计房地产投资总体增速仍将下降。 但考虑到今年三四线城市增量投资项目增速持续走高，全年房地产投资增速可能不会出现太大下滑。

基础设施投资增速小幅回落。 1-7月基础设施投资同比增长16.67%，增速比1-6月回落0.18个百分点。 7月份基础设施投资同比增长15.8%，略低于6月份17.3%的增速。 财政支出增速大幅下滑是基础设施投资增速下降的重要原因。 上半年，财政支出占收入的比重为110%，占年初预算的比重为53%，均高于往年同期。 受前期支出进度加快和相关资金提前拨付影响，7月份财政支出增速大幅回落。 预算内资金来源不足，导致7月份基础设施投资增速小幅回落。

制造业投资大幅下降。 1-7月，制造业投资累计增长4.8%，比上月回落0.7个百分点。 7月制造业投资增长1.5%，较6月的6.7%大幅回落，创去年8月以来新低。 尽管工业运行状况有所改善，但在产能过剩的背景下启动制造业投资并不容易。

3、下月钢材需求预期

1-7月房地产投资增速加快，分项房地产销售和新开工增速明显回落。 房地产市场降温迹象明显。 基建投资增速也较1-7月高位小幅回落，一定程度上挫伤了市场对后期需求的乐观预期。 不过，9月份的市场毕竟处于传统的消费旺季。 此外，三四线城市房地产销售持续升温，基建投资增速仍处于较高水平。 预计下个月国内钢材市场需求或将趋于好转。

成本分析：焦炭价格飙升

●8月份原材料价格全线上涨

●主要地区钢材出厂价格分析

●下月钢材成本走势预测

4、成本分析

1、原材料成本分析

本月国内原材料价格全线上涨，尤其是焦炭价格大幅上涨。 钢坯、废钢、国产矿石价格也大幅上涨，而进口矿石价格涨幅相对较小。 监测数据显示，截至8月25日，唐山普通碳素方坯价格为3770元/吨，环比上涨220元/吨； 江苏废钢价格1950元/吨，环比上涨100元/吨； 山西地区焦炭价格1950元/吨，环比上涨290元/吨； 唐山66%品位干基铁矿石价格730元/吨，环比上涨75元/吨。 与此同时，普氏62%品位铁矿石指数为76.45美元/吨，环比上涨2.45美元/吨。

品种方面，本月唐山钢坯价格大幅上涨，累计涨幅达220元/吨，创下五年多来的新价格新高。 本月，环保主题持续发酵，钢材成品价格大幅上涨，带动钢坯价格持续走强。 1-7月，河北省压减炼铁产能1226万吨，压减炼钢产能1053万吨，分别完成全年任务的75.5%和67.4%。 河北省确定在9月底前全面完成年度化解过剩产能任务，这意味着8、9月份仍将有大量产能退出市场，这将对市场供给造成一定影响。 同时，环保部印发《京津冀及周边地区2017-2018年秋冬季大气污染综合治理行动计划》，确定了石家庄、唐山、邯郸、安阳采暖季钢铁产能限制50% 预计开工率将大幅下降。 预计下月唐山钢坯价格仍将震荡上涨。

本月国内焦炭价格大幅上涨，累计上涨290元/吨。 山东焦炭企业因环保继续限产，河北邢台、邯郸等地区也因国际公路自行车比赛即将举行而被要求大幅限产。 焦炭供应端偏紧，加上铁路、汽车运输环节不畅通，主流钢企到货量无法得到有效保障，库存屡屡下降。 钢厂在利润较高的情况下仍积极补充库存，价格接受度较高。 河北、山西、山东等地主流焦炭企业已启动第七轮焦炭涨价，幅度为100元/吨，累计涨幅已达460元/吨。 苏北焦炭龙头企业也提出了自己的第八轮提价。 港口贸易商的报价和成交价格也大幅上涨。 他们一般拒绝低价出货，并且在价格上涨之前不愿意出售。 与此同时，近期炼焦煤供应偏紧，价格持续上涨，很大程度上推动了焦炭价格的走强。 总体来看，目前焦炭供应偏紧的局面短期内难以改变，预计下个月焦炭价格仍有上涨空间。

本月国内废钢市场上涨明显，全月累计上涨100元/吨。 本月国内钢材价格出现大幅上涨。 由于铁水成本上涨，国内废钢市场也完成了暴涨，幅度在50-100元/吨。 华东地区增幅更为明显。 但与铁水成本相比，仍具有较大优势，废钢价格有较强支撑。 不过，目前废钢市场资源相对充足。 提价后钢厂到货情况有所好转，新增电炉产能释放相对缓慢。 钢厂新增废钢占比也较为有限，继续提升废钢价格的动力不足。 预计下月废钢市场将以小幅波动为主。

从铁矿石市场来看，本月河北地区铁精矿价格大幅上涨，累计涨幅70-80元/吨。 国家统计局数据显示，7月份我国原矿石产量11466.4万吨，同比下降0.2%； 1-7月累计产量75145.3万吨，同比增长7.7%。 钢厂补货时间略长于预期。 这主要是由于高利润下环保和港口运输的较大干扰，使得钢厂倾向于拥有更多的烧结设备。 目前，钢厂高炉产能利用率保持较高水平，入炉铁矿石品位不断提高，提高铁水生产效率。 预计下个月河北铁精粉市场价格仍将稳中上涨。 进口矿价格震荡上涨，继续运行在70美元/吨以上。 截至8月25日，普氏62%进口矿指数为76.45美元/吨，较上月末上涨2.45美元/吨。 7月份，我国铁矿石进口量环比减少845万吨，至8625万吨。 8月以来港口铁矿石库存连续四周大幅下降，降至1.35亿吨以下。 钢厂追逐高品位矿石，港口现货矿利润增加，除钢厂自用外可交易的主流矿石并不多，这些都有利于高品位铁矿石的坚挺价格。 预计下个月进口铁矿石价格仍将震荡上行。

8月BDI指数大幅上涨。 截至8月25日，BDI指数收于1200点，较上月末大幅上涨254点，涨幅26.85%。 进入8月，传统航运旺季到来，新需求逐步释放。 供给方面，运力投放放缓，机构预计一年内新订单难以实质性回升。 随着行业供需关系改善，运价中心有望持续走高，航运业有望迎来复苏。 预计下月BDI指数将震荡走高。

2、主要地区钢材出厂价格分析

本月，国内板材龙头企业宝钢、鞍钢、武钢相继出台9月份价格政策，热轧、冷轧等主流产品出厂价格上调150-400元元/吨，部分钢厂大幅降低签约客户订单比例。 说明板材企业订单依然良好，钢厂提价信心十足。 在钢材价格大幅上涨的情况下，建筑钢材生产企业普遍大幅上调出厂价。 其中，华东龙头钢厂沙钢8月螺纹价格上调300元/吨，线材、盘螺上调350元/吨。 钢厂整体提价幅度大于钢价涨幅，显示钢厂对后市仍持乐观态度。 坚定乐观的信心。 随着环保力度加大以及带钢退出市场，今年市场失去了众多非标小钢厂的竞争，龙头钢厂的定价地位明显提升。 钢厂涨价有力支撑了市场价格上涨。

3、下月钢材成本预期

综上所述，当前钢厂利润高位，库存补充持续时间长于预期，港口铁矿石库存持续下降，钢厂追求高品位矿石仍有利于维持铁矿石价格坚挺。 目前焦化厂库存普遍处于较低水平，主流钢企到货量无法得到有效保障，焦炭价格仍有进一步上涨动力。 目前钢厂订单总体充足，钢厂提价信心坚定。 预计下月整体成本仍将震荡上涨。

宏观经济：经济数据全线下跌

●宏观经济数据分析

●宏观经济走势预测

五、宏观分析

1、7月经济数据不及预期，各项投资全线下跌。

7月份工业增加值、投资、消费数据公布，增速普遍回落至今年新低，低于市场预期。 7月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.4%，增速比6月份回落1.2个百分点； 1-7月份，城镇固定资产投资同比增长8.3%，增速比1-6月份回落0.3个百分点； 社会消费品零售总额同比增长10.4%，增速比6月份回落0.6个百分点。 从对国内建筑钢材需求影响较大的房地产和基础设施投资来看，1-7月房地产开发投资同比增长7.9%，增速较1月份大幅回落0.6个百分点到六月。 连续第二个月实现增长。 回落并创今年新低。 大部分房地产分项指标数据也出现下跌。 1-7月，房地产开发企业房屋施工面积同比增长3.2%，增速比1-6月回落0.2个百分点。 房屋新开工面积同比增长8.0%，增速回落。 2.6个百分点； 房地产开发企业土地购置面积同比增长11.1%，增速比1-6月提高2.3个百分点。 1-7月，商品住宅销售面积同比增长14.0%，增速比1-6月回落2.1个百分点。 1-7月基础设施投资同比增长20.9%，增速比1-6月回落0.2个百分点。 7月份经济数据总体不及预期，尤其是房地产投资增速加速回落。 分项房地产销售和新开工增速大幅回落，可能意味着房地产投资高峰可能已经过去，后期国内钢材市场需求仍将面临下行压力。

2、环保和去产能政策密集发酵，市场供给预计将强烈萎缩。

本月，带钢整治和环保治理话题再次密集发酵，令市场再次出现供应收缩的强烈预期，直接提振了整体钢价走势。 主要包括：

一、7月29日，国务院总理李克强就取缔“地条钢”作出重要批示，强调要坚定不移推进化解过剩产能、防止死灰复燃，坚决依法惩处违法犯罪分子。对监管不力的，严肃查处。 责任，务必遵守命令和禁令；

2、张高丽副总理要求全力做好秋冬季大气污染防治工作，制定错峰停产限产方案；

3、7月31日，《人民日报》发表评论文章称，去产能不用愁，更大的红利还在后面。

4、截至8月1日，4月底至5月底第三批中央环保督察组已进驻天津、山西、辽宁、安徽、福建、湖南、贵州7省市对上述七个地方均已完成检查意见。 据反馈，天津、湖南等地发现地板钢死灰复燃，相关责任人受到严厉处罚。 山西多地污染治理不力，遭到中央环保督察组严厉批评。

5、8月2日，唐山市政府召开全市大气污染防治工作调度会。 会议要求，唐山市各区县要提前安排好采暖季钢铁、水泥、焦化、玻璃等企业错峰生产，严格执行国家和省规定。 工作要求，同时要求已纳入产能退出的企业加快退出。

6、8月15日，第四批中央环保督察最后一批正式进入西藏自治区。 截至目前，中央环保督察已实现全国31个省（区、市）全覆盖。 据《法制日报》记者了解，根据中央环保督察工作安排，第一批中央环保督察问责结果或将于近期公开。 问责结果的严重性和问责的高水平可能是意想不到的。 “看谁敢乱批项目、乱盖房子！” 中央环保督察决心与地方错误发展理念“到底” 公开数据显示，前三批中央环保督察逐一问责约谈1万余人。

7、2017年1-7月，河北省压减炼铁产能1226万吨、压减炼钢产能1053万吨，分别完成年度任务的75.5%和67.4%； 超额压减水泥产能160万吨。 任务的45.5%； 削减平板玻璃260万重量箱，完成全年任务的52.0%； 压减焦炭产能208.8万吨，完成全年任务的29.0%； 煤炭产能压减446万吨，分别完成国家任务和省任务。 59.0%和47.4%的压力任务。

8日和23日，环保部宣布加强京津冀及周边地区大气污染防治监管后，京津冀连续召开会议部署相关工作。 此外，环保部还将在年底前完成该地区钢铁、有色金属行业排污许可证的核发。

9. On August 24, we learned from the Ministry of Environmental Protection that the "Action Plan for Comprehensive Air Pollution Control in the Autumn and Winter of 2017-2018 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas" was issued to prevent and control air pollution in the autumn and winter of 2017-2018. "The Battle to Defend the Blue Sky". "2+26" cities should implement classified management of steel enterprises, and formulate peak-shifting and production-limiting shutdown plans by the end of September 2017 based on pollution emission performance levels. In key cities such as Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan, and Anyang, steel production capacity is limited to 50% during the heating season, based on blast furnace production capacity and verified using the actual electricity consumption of the enterprise. From October 1, 2017 to March 31, 2018, the coking time of coking enterprises was extended to more than 36 hours, and the coking enterprises located in urban built-up areas had to be extended to more than 48 hours. The plan sets out goals and comprehensively completes the assessment indicators of the "Ten Atmosphere Measures". From October 2017 to March 2018, the average concentration of PM2.5 in cities along the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei air pollution transmission channel dropped by more than 15% year-on-year, and the number of heavily polluted days dropped by more than 15% year-on-year.

3. The growth rate of M2 hits a new low, and the central bank's policies are neither loose nor tight.

According to statistics from the central bank, M2 fell more than expected to 9.2% in July. After reaching a stage high of 11.6% in October 2016, it has fallen for seven consecutive months and reached a new low. The balance of M1 was 51.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%. While M1 maintains a high growth rate, the decline of M2 is mainly due to the decline in currency derivation caused by financial deleveraging. Since July, a total of 1,547.5 billion yuan of interbank deposit certificates issued by commercial banks has dropped 22.83% from 2,005.4 billion yuan in June. 。 The total amount of new social financing in July was 1.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 741.5 billion yuan year-on-year, a significant increase. RMB loans increased by 825.5 billion yuan in July, an increase of 361.9 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in medium and long-term loans. Medium and long-term loans increased by 454.4 billion yuan, mainly driven by real estate demand in third- and fourth-tier cities. However, with the gradual decline in real estate sales and the increase in bank interest rates, the increase in medium- and long-term loans to households will gradually slow down. The central bank's second quarter monetary policy implementation report believes that the low excess reserve requirement ratio and M2 do not reflect excessive liquidity, attaches great importance to "peak-cutting and valley-filling" to smooth out liquidity fluctuations, and believes that the financing structure has shifted from virtual to real and deleveraging. Certain progress will be made, and the guidance of whether monetary policy will be loose or tight will be conveyed.

International market: International steel prices rose sharply in August

●Regional analysis of major international steel markets

●The international steel market will still fluctuate upward next month

6. International Market

According to the comprehensively processed data (as shown in the table above), the international steel market experienced an overall surge in August, driven by the surge in the Chinese market. The specific data are as follows:

Rebar prices are rising across the board. In the European and American markets: compared with the same period in July, US steel mill prices were flat and import prices increased by US$21/ton. During the same period, EU steel mill prices increased by US$77/ton, import prices increased by US$3/ton, and German market prices increased by US$63/ton.

In the Asian market: the Chinese market price increased by US$35/ton, and China's export price increased by US$45/ton; the Korean market quotation fell by US$12/ton; the Japanese market price increased by US$10/ton, and the export price increased by US$20/ton. In addition, the import price in the Middle East increased by US$35/ton, the export price in Turkey increased by US$40/ton, and the export quotation from the CIS countries increased by US$75/ton.

Billet prices have risen sharply: compared with the same period in July, Turkey's export quotation (FOB price) increased by US$35/ton, and the CIS export black bill quotation (FOB price) increased by US$71/ton; at the same time, The import price in the Middle East market increased by US$95/ton, and the import price in Southeast Asia (CFR) increased by US$60/ton.

According to statistics from the World Steel Association, in July 2017, the crude steel output of the 67 countries included in the statistics of the World Steel Association was 143.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. In July, China's crude steel output was 74 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%; Japan's crude steel output was 8.6 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%; India's crude steel output was 8.4 million tons, a simultaneous increase of 3.5%; South Korea's crude steel output was 6.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. Within the EU, Germany's crude steel output in July was 3.5 million tons, an increase of 3.6% year-on-year. Türkiye's crude steel output was 3.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.8%. US crude steel production in July was 7.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. Brazil's crude steel output was 2.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%. In July, the crude steel production capacity utilization rate of 67 countries around the world was 72.1%, a year-on-year increase of 3.2 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 1.5 percentage points.

In summary, the sharp rise in China's steel prices in August drove the overall rise in international steel prices. As the global economic recovery accelerates and raw material prices rise across the board, international steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate upward in September.

7. Comprehensive perspective

To comprehensively summarize the content of the analysis report for September 2017, we believe that the basic operating conditions for domestic steel prices in September are as follows:

First, the demand level. The growth rate of real estate investment accelerated in July, and the growth rate of sub-item real estate sales and new construction dropped significantly. The real estate market showed obvious signs of cooling. The growth rate of infrastructure investment also fell slightly from the high level in July, which to a certain extent will dampen the market's response to the later period. Optimistic expectations of demand. However, the market in September is in the traditional peak consumption season after all. In addition, real estate sales in third- and fourth-tier cities continue to heat up, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment is still at a high level. It is expected that domestic steel market demand may tend to improve next month.

Second, the supply level. The national average daily crude steel output in July was 2.3877 million tons, down 2.18% from June. The average daily crude steel output was the third highest level in history, only lower than April and June this year. There is a trend of renewed environmental inspections in August. Hebei's Tangshan rolling mills have switched from coal to gas, steel mills in Handan have restricted sintering, Langfang Qianjin Steel has completely suspended production, and environmentally friendly steel mills in Shandong, Henan and other places have limited production, and market supply is expected to shrink. Strongly, it has become the main driving factor for rising steel prices. With the official release of the production restriction document for the heating season of northern steel mills, the topic of environmental protection and production restriction will continue to ferment, which will also have a boosting effect on the steel price trend.

Third, the cost factor. In August, raw material prices rose across the board, especially coke prices soared across the board. Imported ore prices rose relatively slightly, and the overall profits of steel companies consolidated at a high level. As of August 25, the Nishimoto steel index increased by 320 yuan/ton from the end of last month, and the cost index increased by 254 yuan/ton during the same period. The average gross profit per ton of steel for rebar manufacturers in Jiangsu was 1,185 yuan/ton. Since late May, the average gross profit per ton of steel Gross profit continues to be above 1,000 yuan. The current price of raw materials is still not a strong support for costs. However, the order situation of steel mills is generally good, and the willingness of steel mills to raise prices is firm. The price hikes of steel mills will still boost the market trend.

Fourth, policy factors. This month's steel price trend is closely related to policy trends. The intensive efforts of environmental protection policies have boosted the sharp rise in steel prices throughout the month. The Supreme People's Procuratorate has stated that it will resolutely investigate and deal with those "financial predators" who are causing trouble, and the China Iron and Steel Association has stated that steel prices are rising rapidly. It is not conducive to the smooth operation of the steel industry, causing steel prices to plummet in the middle of the month. In order to cool down the black commodities, this month the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Dalian Commodity Exchange successively introduced measures such as increasing handling fees and limiting positions for various varieties. However, overall, there are still no policies that have substantially suppressed steel prices. The environmental protection and overcapacity reduction policies that have the greatest impact on the market show no signs of relaxing. The short-term policy level is still positive for steel prices.

To sum up, although the sharp rise in steel prices in July and August has largely overdrawn expectations for the peak season, as environmental protection issues continue to ferment, especially when the production limits of northern steel mills during the heating season have been clarified, the market supply contraction is still expected. 强的。 With the arrival of the peak steel consumption season in September, the tight and balanced supply situation in the domestic steel market will further emerge, and it is expected that the overall steel price will still fluctuate upward.