CCF：主港累库压力，EG震荡运行策略摘要

■ 策略

EB 逢低做多对冲。

■ 风险

上游原油价格大幅波动，下游硬胶负反馈降低进度

EG：主油口正在蓄压，EG处于震荡运行状态

策略总结

短期密集维护下，预计区间震荡。 中期我们会中性对待，高位做空。 从基本面来看，上周港口出货继续疲软，周初显性库存反弹至91.1万吨。 下周显性库存积累或将明显缓解，但4月初乙二醇到货量将出现反弹。 现货库存 市场流动性充裕，后续库存显性积累仍有预期。 市场心态受到打压，乙二醇上涨空间有限； 近月底05合约，港口库存不高，国内检修仍在到位，隐性库存减少，港口提货。 下降，港口显性库存小幅积累，目前供需矛盾不大，现价仍有一定采购需求，预计区间波动； 4月份之后，国内建筑施工将处于低位，预计将开始逐步反弹。 与此同时，国外设备基本恢复正常进口，也逐渐恢复到高位，中长期压力逐渐累积。 5月9日之后的合约被视为逢高卖空。 关注浙江石化、卫星石化检修后续落实率，以及后续EG装置转EO生产情况。

核心思想

■ 市场分析

基差方面，EG现货基差3元/吨（+16），近期基差有所走强。

生产利润及国内开机，原油制EG生产利润-1745元/吨（+71），煤制EG生产利润82元/吨（+19）。

下游方面，周二在促销下集中补充库存。 晚间长丝产销400%，周三回落至50%（-350%）； 短纤维产销量同比增长71%（+13%）。

库存方面，周一CCF华东EG港口库存为91.1万吨（+5.0）。 主港库存堆积明显，主要是由于上周张家港到货量较大，港口出货持续疲软。

■ 策略

短期密集维护下，预计区间震荡。 中期我们会中性对待，高位做空。 从基本面来看，上周港口出货继续疲软，周初显性库存反弹至91.1万吨。 下周显性库存积累或将明显缓解，但4月初乙二醇到货量将出现反弹。 现货库存 市场流动性充裕，后续库存显性积累仍有预期。 市场心态受到打压，乙二醇上涨空间有限； 近月底05合约，港口库存不高，国内检修仍在到位，隐性库存减少，港口提货。 下降，港口显性库存小幅积累，目前供需矛盾不大，现价仍有一定采购需求，预计区间波动； 4月份之后，国内建筑施工将处于低位，预计将开始逐步反弹。 与此同时，国外设备基本恢复正常进口，也逐渐恢复到高位，中长期压力逐渐累积。 5月9日之后的合约被视为逢高卖空。 关注浙江石化、卫星石化检修后续落实率，以及后续EG装置转EO生产情况。

■ 风险

原油价格波动、煤炭价格波动以及下游需求的弹性和可持续性。

尿素：库存消耗缓慢，尿素大幅下跌

策略总结

中性：公司总库存75.74万吨，较上周减少2700吨。 企业提前接到订单天数为4.88天，较上周增加0.59天。 供给端持续高位，下游采购相对缓慢，库存去化缓慢。 昊源、九源、金翔等早期设备制造商预计很快将重启运营，供给端压力有望加大。 现阶段尿素基本面偏弱，市场持续下滑。 下游农业需求疲软，工业需求改善，市场交投气氛不佳。 预计将继续震荡。

核心思想

■ 市场分析

市场：3月27日尿素主收价1966元/吨（-41）； 河南地区小颗粒出厂价2175元/吨（20）； 山东地区小颗粒价格2130元/吨（0）； 江苏小颗粒价格为：2160元/吨（10）； 小无烟煤960元/吨（0），尿素成本1677元/吨（0），出口窗口30元/吨（-10）。

供给端：截至3月22日，公司产能利用率为83.67%（-1.88%）。 样本企业总库存为76.01万吨（14.29），港口样本库存为19.35万吨（-0.05）。

需求端：截至3月22日，复合肥产能利用率为50.70%（-0.78%）； 三聚氰胺产能利用率为72.24%（-2.23%）； 尿素企业提前收到订单的天数为4.29天（-1.42）。

中性：3月27日供应端继续处于高位，下游采购相对缓慢，库存去化缓慢。 预计前期设备重启在即，供给端压力有望加大。 现阶段尿素基本面偏弱，市场持续下滑。 下游农业需求疲软，工业需求改善，市场交投气氛不佳。 预计将继续震荡。

■ 策略

中性的。

■ 风险

设备重启状况、库存变化、工业需求复苏、国际市场变化

天然橡胶和合成橡胶：成本端持续宽松，橡胶价格持续弱势

策略总结

目前市场焦点仍集中在供给端。 短期来看，在国内减产的背景下，预计供给压力依然存在，但橡胶成本面的支撑依然存在。

核心思想

■ 市场分析

天然橡胶：

现货现货及价差：3月27日RU基差-505元/吨（+155），RU与混炼胶价差1005元/吨（-105），烟片进口利润橡胶为-8520元/吨（-237），NR基差-261元/吨（79）； 全乳胶13775元/吨（-100），混炼胶13275元/吨（-150），3L现货价13600元/吨（-75）。 STR20#价格1625美元/吨（-20），全乳胶与3L价差175元/吨（-25）； 混炼胶与丁苯价差-325元/吨（-150）；

原料：泰烟片86.71泰铢/公斤（+0.02）、泰胶78.5泰铢/公斤（-0.50）、泰杯胶54.8泰铢/公斤（-0.15）、泰胶-杯胶23.7泰铢/公斤（-0.35） ）；

开工率：3月22日，全钢轮胎开工率为70.13%（-0.22%），半钢轮胎开工率为80.12%（+0.57%）；

库存：3月22日天然橡胶社会库存156万吨（0），青岛港天然橡胶库存668,002吨（+11835），RU期货库存217,191吨（-220），NR期货库存为 127,210 吨（+2217）；

顺丁橡胶：

现货现货及价差：3月27日BR基差200元/吨（+25），丁二烯上海石化出厂价11600元/吨（0），顺丁胶齐鲁石化BR9000报价13500元/吨（-100），浙江川化BR9000报价13400元/吨（-100），山东民营顺丁胶13200元/吨（0），BR非标价差100元/吨（-125） ，东北亚顺丁橡胶进口利润-2457元/吨（-512）；

开工率：3月22日，高顺顺丁橡胶开工率为61.71%（-2.57%）；

库存：3月22日顺丁胶贸易商库存3090吨（-570），顺丁胶企业库存2.92万吨（+100）；

■ 策略

RU和NR是中性的。 昨日泰国原材料价格持续下跌，胶水跌幅更为明显，导致胶水与杯胶价差小幅回落。 未来关注胶价跌幅能否弥补。 天胶成本面支撑减弱。 目前市场关注更多的是云南国内产区的开放。 随着降雨的到来，本周将开始开放。 原材料价格高位运行下，短期国内供应压力将有所加剧。 需求变化有限，预计价格将弱势波动。

BR 中性。 上游浙江石化本周正在进行检修，供应端持续偏紧； 需求处于季节性旺季，但持续复苏空间有限。 近期顺丁橡胶价格跟随天然橡胶走势。 由于库存较高，也存在来自上方的压力。 但丁二烯价格坚挺以及上游装置检修可能会限制下方空间。

■ 风险

国内云南产区开放，上游顺丁橡胶装置恢复以及下游轮胎需求变化。

PVC：市场气氛不佳，PVC弱势运行

策略总结

截至3月27日，PVC弱势运行； PVC供应端环比下降； 下游产品企业订单不佳； 电石市场价格平稳； 出口量没有进一步增加； 码头维持刚性需求采购。

核心思想

■ 市场分析

期货市场：截至3月27日PVC主力收盘价5825元/吨（涨幅0.14%）； 基差为-245元/吨（-48）。

现货：截止3月27日华东地区（硬质合金法）报价为：5580元/吨（-40）； 华南地区报价（硬质合金法）为：5645元/吨（-25）。

兰潭：截止3月27日陕西766元/吨（0）。

电石：截止3月27日华北地区3275元/吨（0）。

观点：PVC昨日弱势。 短期来看，PVC基本面依然偏弱。 国内房地产疲软尚未明显提振需求，但在春季检验和出口方面仍有一定支撑。 后续关注供给侧负担减轻带来的供需逐步错配带来的上行动力。 短期来看，仍可能被视为震荡走势，暂时观望。

■ 策略

中性的。

■ 风险

宏观经济预期的变化； PVC需求和库存情况。

烧碱：检修力度加大，供应压力加大

策略总结

中性的。 现货市场供需稳定，短期仍有利好因素。 有厂家预计清明节前后将出现设备检修，供应压力将加大。 碱厂报价保持稳定，但下游接货信心有所下降，不如之前。 预计后期现货市场或将缓慢下滑。

核心思想

市场分析

期货市场：截至3月27日SH主收盘价2564元/吨（+0.31%）； 基差为-189元/吨（-8）。

现货：截止3月27日山东32液碱报价为：760元/吨（0）； 山东50液碱报价为：1330元/吨（0）； 西北片碱报价2900元/吨（-50）。

价差（100%折价）：截止3月27日山东50液碱-山东32液碱：47元/吨（0）； 广东片碱-广东液烧碱：297元/吨（-50）； 32液碱江苏-山东242元/吨(0)

观点：昨日多地烧碱价格保持稳定，各地氯碱企业盈利情况尚可。 4月份设备检修仍会进行，加上假期的影响，预计未来还会有累积的库存压力。 同时，市场预期烧碱市场供需格局将发生变化，市场或将承压。

■ 策略

中性的。 现货市场供需稳定，短期仍有利好因素。 有厂家预计清明节前后将出现设备检修，供应压力将加大。 碱厂报价保持稳定，但下游接货信心有所下降，不如之前。 预计后期现货市场或将缓慢下滑。 昨日小幅上涨后，市场震荡下行，随后继续区间震荡。 建议观望，关注后续市场情绪及仓单登记情况。

■ 风险

春季维护实施进度； 下游复工进度； 库存变化； 出口窗是否打开。

有色金属

贵金属：美联储官员进一步表态，但金价仍震荡上行

■ 市场分析

期货市场：3月27日，上海黄金主力合约开盘价517.02元/克，收盘价516.42元/克，较前一交易日收盘价上涨0.43%。 当日成交量231,783手，持仓量222,000手。

昨晚沪金主力合约开盘518.00元/克，收盘514.5元/克，较昨日下午收盘上涨0.21%。

3月27日，上海白银主力合约开盘于6376元/公斤，收盘于6346元/公斤，较前一交易日收盘价下跌0.06%。 当日成交量543,521手，持仓量570,866手。

昨晚沪银主力合约开盘于6348元/公斤，收盘于6369元/公斤，较昨日下午收盘上涨0.36%。

隔夜消息：昨天，另一位美联储官员发表讲话。 美联储理事沃勒表示，目前没有迹象表明迫切需要降息。 他强调，通胀的粘性表明没有必要急于降息。 目前的利率维持时间可能会比预期更长，今年降息次数可能会减少。 沃勒还表示，他希望在降息之前看到“至少几个月更好的通胀数据”。 不过，目前美国经济数据较为强劲，通胀可能难以继续回落。 不排除维持高利率的可能。 因此，在利率会议临近之前，建议以观望态度对待。 但总体来看，黄金仍可继续低价买入避险，而白银则选择暂时观望。

基本面：最后一个交易日（3月27日），上海黄金交易所黄金成交量32650公斤，较前一交易日增加23.76%。 白银成交量759,714公斤，较前一交易日增加60.86%。 黄金交割量8,220公斤，白银交割量56,040公斤。 前一交易所黄金库存3045公斤，与前一交易日持平。 白银库存较上一交易日减少9,136吨至1,043,089公斤。

贵金属ETF方面，昨日（3月27日）黄金ETF持仓量为830.15吨，与前一交易日持平。 白银ETF持仓量为13190.55吨，较上一交易日增加31.29吨。

最后一个交易日（3月27日），沪深300指数较前一交易日下跌1.16%，电子元件板块较前一交易日下跌3.78%。 光伏板块较前一交易日持平。

■ 策略

黄金：谨慎看涨

银：中性

套利：暂停

金银比：逢低做多金银比

期权：卖出看跌期权

■ 风险

美元及美债收益率持续走高

加息末期流动性风险飙升

铜：升贴水继续下滑，铜价维持震荡格局。

■ 市场分析

期货市场：3月27日，沪铜主力合约开盘于72250元/吨，收盘于72090元/吨，较前一交易日收盘价上涨0.13%。 当日成交量6.9万手，持仓量18.9万手。

沪铜主力合约昨晚开盘于71840元/吨，收盘于72080元/吨，较昨日下午收盘下跌0.01%。

现货情况：昨日铜价继续下跌，现货价格较上一交易日继续下跌。 早盘开盘，主流平水铜持货商报价对下月票贴水190元/吨至贴水180元/吨； CCC-P等优质铜，价格较下月票贴水180元/吨至贴水170元/吨。 元/吨。 由于铜价及升水双双下跌，下游接货情绪好转，成交量小幅回升。 进入主交易时段后，平水铜报价进一步回落至对下月票贴水220元/吨至贴水210元/吨，部分成交完成； 优质铜报价也跌至贴水200元/吨至下月票贴水190元。 /吨，也有一些交易。 RT、MV等牌号湿法铜对下月票报价贴水320元/吨至贴水300元/吨，部分成交也已完成。 由于持有者在季度末面临资金头寸差异，报价之间的差距略有扩大。 随后，平水铜报价进一步跌至贴水240元/吨至下月票贴水230元/吨，优质铜报价也跌至贴水220元/吨至贴水210元/吨。下个月的票。 截至上午11点，部分低价平水铜较下月票贴水240元/吨成交。 这说明市场对低价供应有所反应，成交量有所增加。

观点：宏观方面，昨天美联储另一位官员发表讲话。 美联储理事沃勒表示，目前没有迹象表明迫切需要降息。 他强调，通胀的粘性表明没有必要急于降息。 目前的利率维持时间可能会比预期更长，今年降息次数可能会减少。 沃勒还表示，他希望在降息之前看到“至少几个月更好的通胀数据”。 不过，目前美国经济数据较为强劲，通胀可能难以继续回落。 不排除维持高利率的可能。 国内方面，国家统计局数据显示，1-2月，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额9140.6亿元，同比增长10.2%。

采矿方面，据路透社报道，印尼铜矿商PT Amman Mineral Internasional周三表示，该公司的目标是在2024年生产83.3万吨实物铜精矿，较去年产量增长约54%。 据Mysteel了解，上周铜精矿现货TC基本稳定在10美元低位，现货市场保持活跃。 由于纯净铜精矿供应有限，现货市场交易的商品种类增多，商品复杂程度增加，商品交易幅度差异较大。 供给端依然没有新的变化，冶炼厂暂时基本保持稳定。 市场人士大多等待下周新一轮冶炼厂运营计划调整和CSPT会议。 本周TC价格下跌至10.63美元/吨。

冶炼方面，上周国内电解铜产量24.3万吨，与上周持平。 本周维修公司数量没有增加。 检修企业继续进行检修，但预计今年新增产能投产难度较大。 加之检修企业产量较大，铜产量波动不大。 据SMM消息，3月28日，中海动力将于上海召开2024年第一季度总经理办公会。

消费方面，据Mysteel报道，本周铜价高位波动加剧。 期间一度上涨至73500元/吨附近。 然后在周末表现有所回落。 下游对高价的恐惧心理较强，短期内有一定的看空情绪，因此周内采购较多。 需求谨慎。 一些加工企业也反映，订单也有所减少，白天主要是趁着低价、刚需接货。 废铜企业利用精炼铜和废铜价差扩大的机会增加出货量。

库存方面，LME库存较上一交易日减少4300吨，至11.31万吨。 上期所仓单较上一交易日增加2000吨、21.75万吨。 截至3月25日，SMM社会库存较上周同期减少7700吨至38.73万吨。

国际铜、伦铜方面，昨日比价收于7.24，较上一交易日基本下跌0.01。

总体来看，TC价格继续下跌，市场正在关注本周的CSPT会议以及此后可能发生的具体减产行动（CSPT小组今天将再次召开会议）。 但由于当前铜价持续高位，下游企业较为惧高，多地成交惨淡，叠加库存居高不下，加之美联储议息影响暂时消退，因此本次操作可以暂时采取观望态度。 主要是，但铜价不具备深度下跌的条件，所以如果出现回调，仍然可以积极逢低买入进行套保。

■ 策略

铜：中性

套利：暂停

期权：空头看跌期权@69,500元/吨

■ 风险

需求依然疲软

海外流动性风险

镍不锈钢：成本支撑显现，不锈钢价格止跌反弹

镍品种：

3月27日，沪镍主力合约2405开盘于131430元/吨，收盘于129510元/吨，较前一交易日收盘下跌1.72%。 当日成交量308,964手，持仓量119,772手。 昨晚沪镍主力合约开盘于128990元/吨，收盘于129360元/吨，较昨日下午收盘下跌0.12%。

昨日上海镍价继续下跌。 近期RKAB扰动明显减弱。 与此同时，菲律宾的雨季即将结束。 叠加市场宏观看涨情绪逐渐消退，镍价回归基本面。 近期，不少下游企业已完成短期备货。 精炼镍现货成交整体尚可，但较前几日有所转冷，精炼镍现货贴水小幅上涨。 昨日金川镍贴水上涨300元/吨至2400元/吨，进口镍贴水维持-350元/吨不变，镍豆贴水维持-3150元/吨不变。 昨日，上海镍仓单增加480吨至15,828吨，LME镍库存减少240吨至76,836吨。

■ 镍视图：

目前镍供需形势较为悲观，镍供应量维持在高位。 消费端并无明显好转，过剩格局仍在延续。 目前原生镍处于全面过剩状态。 国内精炼镍库存和LME库存持续积累。 目前国内精炼镍库存已累积至近两年高位。 近期原材料价格止跌回升。 目前外购原材料生产电镍的成本线较高，但目前市场对于高价成本资源的接受度并不高。 当前镍行业平均利润总体尚可，矿山端供应扰动因素减弱，成本端价格或承压下跌，镍价或将震荡弱势运行，镍中线维持维持逢高卖出的对冲思路。

■ 镍策略：

中性的。

■ 风险：

精炼镍项目进展不及预期，主要镍生产国供应发生变化。

304不锈钢品种：

3月27日，不锈钢主力合约2405开盘于13300元/吨，收盘于13450元/吨，较前一交易日收盘上涨0.9%。 当日成交量256,138手，持仓量169,192手。 昨晚不锈钢主力合约开盘于13450元/吨，收盘于13460元/吨，较昨日下午上涨0.07%。

昨日不锈钢期货价格小幅反弹，现货价格以稳为主。 但市场接受度有限，刚性需求采购仍维持。 气氛回暖后期货交易表现较好，不锈钢基差基本稳定。 昨日无锡市场不锈钢基差下跌15元/吨至235元/吨，佛山市场不锈钢基差上涨35元/吨至235元/吨，SS期货仓单增加1634张吨至144,100吨。 据SMM数据显示，昨日高镍生铁出厂含税均价下跌0.5元/镍点至933元/镍点。

■ 不锈钢观点：

304不锈钢目前处于供需预期增加、库存压力较大的局面。 随着印尼镍矿审批的逐步推进，供应限制问题得到缓解。 2月份，受春节假期影响，300系不锈钢产量大幅下降。 春节过后，不锈钢排产逐步恢复，库存积累逐渐放缓，需求滞后导致去库存延迟，当前终端消费依然疲弱。 目前不锈钢厂、镍铁厂盈利状况不佳，成本倒挂现象再度出现。 近期不锈钢价格或将获得较大支撑。 加之当前宏观经济预期向好，短期内不锈钢价格或将止跌震荡，但镍价、钢铁、不锈钢均存在一定产能过剩。 一旦利润状况改善、产能释放，不锈钢价格长期可能维持弱势。

■ 不锈钢策略：

中性的。

■ 风险：

印尼的政策变化导致消费改善好于预期。

铝：铝价小幅下跌，市场成交小幅改善

策略总结

铝：一季度国内电解铝无新增产能计划。 目前企业主要维持稳定生产，未来云南供应量将持续增加。 近期，云南铝企基本提前恢复生产。 云南省外送电有所减少，省内电力资源丰富。 近期将释放80万千瓦负荷电力，用于全省电解铝复产。 1-2月，海外原铝进口量同比大幅增长，对国内现货价格造成一定影响，国内现货价格持续贴水。 目前进口窗口阶段性关闭，宏观情绪依然浓厚。 同时，铝锭社会库存近期或将进入去库存状态，对铝价仍有一定支撑预期。 未来需继续关注进口盈亏、云南电解铝复产进度以及传统旺季需求恢复情况。 近期铝价或将出现波动，建议暂时观望。

氧化铝：目前供给端偏紧，需求端暂时较为稳定。 但云南电解铝生产即将恢复，后续需求有望增加。 目前氧化铝企业复产步伐慢于预期。 山西、河南等地已停产矿山的复产尚无明确时间表。 河南Sanmenxia地区的矿山仍被暂停。 安全和环境问题仍然是恢复生产困难的最直接原因。 目前，氧化铝公司正在赚取可观的利润，企业非常愿意恢复生产，达到全部生产并实现高生产。 本周，氧化铝期货的现货套利窗口已经开放，现货交易的活动增加了，Shanxi-Henan地区的可交付氧化铝和非可交付的氧化铝之间的价格差也扩大了。 在西南地区，市场正在考虑云南电解铝生产的早期恢复，而短期需求的增加将为西南氧化铝的现货价格提供一定的支持。 当前的紧密平衡模式仍在继续，短期氧化铝价格预计将受到冲击调整。 请注意有关在Shanxi和Henan生产氧化铝公司生产的新闻。

核心思想

■ 市场分析

铝斑：昨天，LME铝现货溢价和折扣下跌了2.32美元/吨至-US $ 51.8/吨。 SMM数据，A00铝价的记录为19,270元/吨，比上交日的180元/吨下降了180元/吨，A00铝现货溢价和折扣与上一交易力的日期保持不变。 中元A00铝价的记录为19,170元/吨元/吨，比上一个交易日的160元/吨下降了160元/吨，Zhongyuan a00铝现货溢价和折扣增加了20元/吨，从上一个交易日到-190 yuan/ton/ton; Foshan A00铝价的记录为19,220元/吨，从上一个交易日起了180元/吨，而Foshan A00 Aluminum的现货保费和折扣保持不变。

铝货期货：3月27日，上海铝合金合同2405的开放量为19,490元/吨，关闭，以19,415元/吨的速度开放，降低了75元/吨或0.38％，比上一个交易日的收盘价降低了0.38％。 整个交易日的交易量为167,057，整个交易日都有261,012个职位，比上一个交易日减少了28,926人，比以前的交易日减少了13,566手。 价格在白天波动和削弱，价格最高，达到19,520元/吨，最低价格达到19,365元/吨。 在夜间交易中，上海铝的主要合同2405的开放量为19,380元/吨，并以19,440元/吨关闭，比昨天的下午关闭价格高25元/吨。 价格在晚上波动并上升。

进口窗口最近已在分阶段关闭，但是铝制铸币库库存并未像预期的那样下降。 但是，它已经出现在某些领域。 目前的高点仍处于同一时期的历史低位，这可能为铝价提供一定的支持。 根据Mysteel的说法，现货市场上现货商品的供应足够了，这给现货溢价和折扣带来了一定的压力。 现货价格可以在短期内保持折扣。 昨天，中国东部的现货市场略有损失，但流通的实际货物供应仍然很大，而且供应压力仍然很高。 下游公司利用DIP来补充商品并准备仓库。 中介人积极利用低廉的价格接收商品并交付长期订单。 与昨天相比，需求增加了，交付投资意愿也增加了。 中央平原的现货市场逐渐稳定。 如果铝价更正和库存量的略有上涨，持有人仍然主要活跃于运输货物以撤回资金。 接收者对廉价狩猎更加热情，需求略有恢复。 ，交易已经完成； 在南中国市场，当铝价格，保费和折扣都下降时，收件人已经开始以低价积极购买。 市场接收氛围有所改善，报价已经提高，中国铝制铸币厂的整体交易状况也得到了改善。

在供应方面，最近已经实施了云南电解铝的恢复。 根据SMM News的报道，云南省的外部力量最近下降了。 同时，该省的其他电力来源（例如风力和太阳能）同比增加。 该省的总体力量很丰富。 在不久的将来，将释放80万千瓦的负载功率，以恢复该省的电解铝生产。 预计目前的电解铝生产能力的恢复能力约为500,000吨，或者在4月中旬之前完成。 但是，由于目前云南的降雨量低，它仍处于干旱季节，更大的生产恢复可能必须等到潮湿季节到来。 由于技术转型和升级，四川金星本周停止了所有电解铝的生产，并有望在下半年恢复生产。 预计内蒙古Huayun阶段的第一批电解细胞有望在五月中旬开始并开始。 在下半年，还将投入使用技术转型和扩展项目，例如四川金星，ABA铝厂和Shuangyuan铝。 在宏观方面，一周内的整体宏观经济状况得到了改善。 美联储宣布了3月的利率解决，并决定使当前利率保持不变，这与以前的市场预测一致。 在国内，政府继续引入有利的政策，国家发展与改革委员会和国务院已连续发表声明，指出他们将支持实际经济的发展并积极吸引外国投资。 海外主要的铝进口量同比大幅增长，这对国内现货价格产生了一定的影响，这仍然是折扣价。 在需求方面，SMM报道说，上周国内铝制建筑继续进行，建筑物概况行业大大增加了。 光伏模块的生产时间表在3月份很好。 目前，光伏档案公司的订单很好，小型公司（例如Strips and Foils）的创业也有所改善。 国内铝社会库存的增长速度已减慢，铝杆库存仍然存在。

在库存方面，截至3月25日，SMM计算出，电解铝锭的国内社会库存为870,300吨，比上周同期增加了23,500吨，库存的积累速度也减慢了。 截至3月27日，LME铝库存比上周同期同期增加了0,800吨，并减少了9,800吨。

氧化铝现货价格：3月27日，SMM氧化铝指数价格的记录为3,310元/吨，比上一个交易日减少了3元/吨。 澳大利亚氧化铝FOB价格记录了367美元/吨，这与上一个交易日相同。 。

氧化铝期货：3月27日，主要氧化铝合同2404的开放量为3293元/吨，以3303元/吨的关闭，比上交日的收盘价增加了22元/吨，比上涨了0.67％。 交易全天完成。 59174批次，比上交日减少了3827批次，在整个交易日持有47048个职位，比上一行交易日减少了1299批次。 价格在白天波动，最高价格达到3313元/吨，最低价格降至3270元/吨。 。 在夜间交易中，主要的氧化铝合同2405以3304元/吨的价格开放，以3282元/吨的关闭，比昨天下午关闭时下降了21元/吨。 晚上价格保持波动。

就氧化铝斑点而言​​：在供应方面，由于早期矿石供应不足，Shanxi的某些氧化铝工厂在一条生产线上停止了生产。 它本周恢复了饲料，预计下周将生产成品，涉及每年生产能力120万吨； 由于自己的矿山假期，瓜苏的部分氧化铝厂在早期被悬挂。 最近，矿石供应的稳定性得到了改善。 该炉子于上周开始，预计本周将生产成品。 恢复生产后，运营能力将达到60万吨； 根据这一变化，一些烘焙机将在3月15日至5月15日的转盘上关闭以进行维护。在此期间，总产出可能会减少约80,000吨。 根据Aladdin（ALD）的数据，目前的国内氧化铝生产能力为1.0342亿吨，运营能力为8310万吨，稳定运行。 昨天，在Shanxi样品中出售了15,000吨现货氧化铝，单股系统到达青海电解铝制工厂交易价格3,390元/吨，这相当于Shanxi Ex-Factory价格，约为3,225 Yuan/Ton，贸易商及其交易者，及其交易员运送货物。 尽管全国的总运营能力稳定，但区域运营有重大变化。 Shanxi，Guangxi和Hebei的运行能力略有反弹。 山东省Weiqiao的运营能力由于中型和长期维护的旋转而下降了约100万吨。 在需求方面，基本上已经实施了云南电解铝生产的恢复。 在不久的将来，云南省可能会发布80万千瓦的负载功率，用于与该省电解铝制公司恢复生产有关的工作，这相当于年度电解铝生产能力约为500,000吨。 预计短期需求的增加将影响西南地区的氧化铝的现货价格。 有效的支持。 氧化铝景点进口窗口在周中变成了分阶段关闭。

■策略

单侧：铝：中性氧化铝：中性。

■风险

1.供应方面的变化超出了预期。 2.流动性变化超出了预期。

锌：基本支持很弱，锌价格较弱波动

策略总结

最近，海外采矿码头经常被干扰，原材料的短缺为锌价格提供了一些支持。 但是，考虑到消费量没有显着改善，进口的锌橡胶仍在流入市场，因此在短期内，社会股票可能很难被大大销毁。 建议使用高价。 在处理低价和低购买的想法时，您需要注意市场情绪的变化。

核心思想

■ 市场分析

就现货价格而言：LME锌斑点溢价为-50.83/吨。 SMM上海锌斑点价格从上一个交易日下降了410元/吨，至20,720元/吨。 SMM上海锌现货溢价和折扣从前的交易日增加了50元/吨，达到-45元/吨。 SMM广东锌现货价格从上一个交易日降至20,700元/吨，下降了440元/吨。 从前交易日，SMM广东锌的现货溢价和折扣增加了20元/吨，达到-65元/吨，SMM Tianjin锌的现货价格从上一个交易日从410元/吨下降到20,690元/吨。 SMM Tianjin锌的现货溢价和折扣从前的交易日增加了50元/吨，达到-75元/吨。

期货：3月27日，上海锌主要合同的开放时间为21,015元/吨，关闭的时间为20,795元/吨，比上交易日下降了360元/吨。 整天交易136,787批次，比上一笔交易日增加。 在整个交易日，有24,610批，持有97,845批次，比上一个交易日少1200块。 白天的价格下降了，最高点达到21,035元/吨，最低点达到20,725元/吨。 在夜间交易中，上海锌的主要合同以20,730元/吨的开放，并以20,840元/吨关闭，比昨天下午的关闭相比增加了45元/吨。 价格在晚上波动。

宏观经济气氛最近是平均的。 国内锌Ingot社会库存继续积累，而命令过程尚未开始。 从基本的角度来看，进口矿石市场的实际交易量很小，国内大规模矿山基本上正常运行。 预计先前悬挂的矿山将在4月恢复生产。 炼油厂生产利润仍处于深层倒置状态，一些制造商正在维护和削减生产。 但是，一些进口的锌橡胶已经流入市场，弥补了供应。 在消费方面，随着环境保护生产限制的结束，镀锌行动已经恢复； 铸成锌合金公司主要购买出于紧急需求的商品； 氧化锌市场订单通常已经稳定。

在库存方面：截至3月25日，SMM七个地点的锌橡胶总库存为203,600吨，上周同期增加了5,100吨。 其中，上海的库存大大增加，这主要是由于进口锌姜的持续流入，而下游需求并没有改善。 周末，更多的商品到达了广东的仓库，下游的购买和交付平均； 天津的库存略有下降，这主要是由于下游镀锌消费以及公司议价购买的改善。 截至3月27日，LME锌库存为263,550吨，比上一个交易日减少了2,450吨。

■ 策略

单方面：中立。 套利：中立。

■风险

1.海外冶炼生产能力已大规模恢复生产。 2.国内消费低于预期。 3.流动性变化超出了预期。

铅：基本面还没有变化，潜在客户价格波动

策略总结

铅市场的供应下降了。 由于中国主要铅炼油厂的维护增加，供应阶段减少了，铅锭的社会清单已耗尽。 但是，考虑到主要消费者的淡季趋势，下游公司在购买方面更加谨慎，建议在短期内以高价出售。 主要的想法是购买低价。

核心思想

■潜在客户分析

就现货价格而言：LME线索溢价为-42.46美元/吨。 SMM1＃铅Ingot的现货价格从上一个交易日下降了50元/吨，至16,025元/吨。 上海铅的现货价格从上一个交易日上涨了5元/吨，增加到20元/吨。 从上一个交易日起，SMM广东铅的现货价格上涨了5元/吨。 从上一个交易日，折扣增加了25元/吨，达到-115元/吨。 SMM Henan Lead的现货溢价和折扣从前的交易日增加了50元/吨，达到-90元/吨。 与以前的交易日相比，SMM Tianjin Lead Spot的溢价和折扣增加了50元/吨。 从上一个交易日增加到25元/吨，达到-90元/吨。 从上一个交易日为-100元/吨，铅精制废物的价格差异保持不变，废纸电池的价格差异与上一个交易日的9,650 yuan/ton相比保持不变。交易日为9,025元/吨，浪费黑色壳价格的价格与上一个交易日为9,525元/吨保持不变。

期货：3月27日，上海主要领先合同的开放量为16,150元/吨，并以16,185元/吨关闭，比上交日的10元/吨下降了10元/吨。 全天交易42,072批次，与上一交易日减少。 在整个交易日，持有7,473批次和48,818批次，比上交日减少了2,524批次。 白天的价格波动，最高点达到16,235元/吨，最低点达到16,120元/吨。 在夜间交易中，上海主要的铅合同的开放量为16,185元/吨，关闭的16,295元/吨，比昨天的下午结束时增加了110元/吨，并在晚上波动。

在供应方面，进口矿石市场几乎没有交易，精炼厂和商人仍然专注于国内矿石购买。 北部季节性悬挂地雷的生产尚未恢复，而国内初级铅冶炼公司大多处于正常生产中，对原材料采购的需求很高。 铅浓缩液市场的供应量很少，铅浓缩物加工费用较低。 就主要铅而言，由于原材料的供应紧密，河南和湖南的冶炼厂已经大修并生产降低了，云南中型冶炼厂的输出略有减少，导致主要的供应。导致下降。 河南和江苏的再生铅生产相对稳定，而内蒙古的单个回收铅公司由于原材料库存的增加而产生的产量略有增加。 在消费方面，领先的下游公司主要以低价库存并补充股票。 考虑到4月和5月是铅酸电池市场的传统淡季，如果铅酸电池公司的随后订单继续削弱，则该公司的运营速度可能会下降。

在库存方面：截至3月25日，SMM Lead Ingots的总库存为62,800吨，比上周同期减少了5,900吨，并且铅Ingot库存继续耗尽。 截至3月27日，LME Lead库存为267,850吨，与上一个交易日相同。

■ 策略

单方面：中立。 套利：中立。

■风险

1.国内供应显着增加2.消费量低于预期的3.海外流动性收紧

工业硅：工业硅继续下降，期货价格在上市后跌至新的低点。

期货和现货市场分析

3月27日，主要工业硅合同2405继续下降，以12,300元/吨的开放，跌至12,080元/吨的盘中低点，这是自上市硅期货以来的新低点，并在12,105 rean/the Cleant of Industrial silicon。吨，下降250元/吨。 ，降低了2.02％。 当天的主要合同的交易量为101,659批，开放兴趣为158,373批次。 目前的总职位约为2​​81,300批，比前一天增加了7,205批。 目前，中国东部的现货溢价为1,695元。 在计算质量溢价之后，东中国421品牌的溢价为295元。 Kunming 421的溢价为745元。 421和99硅之间的价格差为250元。 目前，北部地区暂停的生产能力已经开始恢复生产，最大的消费者多元元素的价格下降了。 下游采购是谨慎的，持有货物的意愿并不强。 3月27日，注册仓库收据数量减少了183批，仓库收据总数为49,090批，相当于245,450吨物理商品。 某些地区的交付仓库容量很紧。

工业硅：昨天工业硅的现货价格下跌，按需进行下游购买。 根据SMM数据，昨天中国东部没有氧气的553＃硅价格为13,600-13,800元/吨。 氧气的价格为553＃硅的价格为13,700-13,900元/吨； 421＃硅的价格为14,300-14,500元/吨。 目前，北部的暂停生产能力已经开始恢复生产，交货仓库有大量库存。 下游按需购买以及持有货物的意愿不强。 目前，下游多硅烷的价格正在下降，对有机硅和铝合金的需求稳定。 现货价格需要继续跟踪主要生产领域的生产成本，运营速度的变化和下游购买意图。

多晶硅：昨天多晶硅的现货价格保持稳定。 根据SMM统计，多晶硅重新喂入价格为56-63元/千克； 在53-60元/千克的情况下引用了多晶硅致密材料； 在50-55元/公斤中引用了多晶硅花椰菜材料； 颗粒硅为53-55元/公斤。 元/公斤。 由于一些新添加的设备的产品质量不平坦，并且下游的质量需求不断提高，因此不同质量的产品之间的价格差异将逐渐扩大。 目前，N型材料的紧密供应已得到缓解，但供过于求的行业模式仍然不存在。 改变。 随着多硅生产的不断增加，对工业硅的需求也将继续增长，但是需要注意新工业硅和多硅生产能力的委托步伐。 在长期到长期中，我们需要注意削弱多硅价格对新生产能力进度的影响。

有机硅：昨天的现货价格保持稳定。 根据Zhuochuang信息的统计数据，3月27日在山东引用的有机硅价格为15,300元/吨，而其他地区的报价大部分为15,700-16,300 yuan/ton。 终端订单略有改善，制造公司的利润有所提高。 但是，总体而言，产能过剩很多。 在中长期中，有机硅价格预计随着工业硅价格而波动。 当前的施工开始仍然很低，预计施工开始在4月相对稳定。 价格和建筑业的起步直到最终市场并显着提高才能显着上涨。

■策略

下游补给少于预期，仓库收据和库存的压力很高。 市场正逐渐交易，如洪水季节的预期，预计市场仍然会薄弱。

■风险点

1.北部的供应方面情况

2.成本变化

3.下游利润和购买意愿

4.宏观情绪

碳酸盐锂：受到供应方面的新闻打扰，期货市场发生了广泛的波动。

期货和现货市场分析

2024年3月27日，碳酸锂合同2407的开放量为109,350元/吨，关闭为108,400元/吨，当天关闭0.51％。 当天的交易量为284,502批次，开放兴趣是201,977批次，比上一个交易日增加了1,180批次。 根据SMM的报价，当前的水，电和碳的期货折扣为1,350元/吨。 所有合同的总职位为305,065批次，比上交日增加了1,005批次。 与上一个交易当天相比，当天的合同交易量增加了20,812批次，交易量增加，总体投机学位为1.00。 当天，碳酸氢锂仓库收据的数量为14,291批，与上一个交易日相比增加了713批。

磁盘：碳酸锂期货的主要合同急剧下降到当天开业后的最低点105,800元/吨，然后开始反弹。 下午市场开放后，波动率开始增加，最终关闭了0.51％。

现货价格略有削弱。 在环境检查的消息中，期货价格反弹。 锂盐厂和中介基本上引用了期货价格，并提供了足够的现货供应，而且价格很少。 受斑点供应和宏观经济情绪的放松影响，有望在2月从智利进口的16,095吨碳酸锂中的一些，预计将于3月底到达港口。 盐湖端的制造商将在本月底发布货物，从而导致碳酸锂的短期增加和现货价格降低。 。 从供应方面，一些江西制造商推迟了由于环境因素而进行的工作或进行常规维护，再加上澳大利亚矿山的生产减少。 在短期内有收紧供应的期望，但从长期来看，人们对供应的期望仍然存在。 根据交换法规，仓库将在3月底大量取消。 订单，仓库收据和总库存的压力仍然存在。 随后的仓库收据的流出将导致过多的斑点循环。 同时，澳大利亚矿工Pilbara矿产与四川Yahua Lithium行业签署了一项承销协议。 预计现货供应就足够了，这可能会对价格产生一定的压制。 。 根据SMM的最新统计数据，现货库存为77,800吨，其中冶炼厂库存为41,200吨，下游库存为18,400吨，其他库存为18,200吨。

锂矿石的价格和再生黑色粉末的价格最近继续上涨，导致碳酸盐的生产成本增加。 一些生产公司很难找到低价的原材料，造成生产损失并影响其创业。 同时，在最近的高点上，期货价格保持稳定，波动有限。 锂盐工厂的价格支持情绪很强，很难获得长期订单的折扣。 现货报价通常位于高方面，期货价格通常用于确定现货价格。 江西的一些企业受到环境保护问题的影响，其整体运营较低。 下游需求已显示出改善，阴极和电池电池的启动也有所增加。 但是，其中大多数是出于刚性需求而购买的，并且很难接受高价的用品。

碳酸锂斑点：根据SMM数据，碳酸锂的碳酸锂的报价为107,500-112,000元/吨，2024年3月27日，碳酸盐/吨的碳酸盐量为107.5亿元/吨，比以上交易日与工业级的碳酸盐报价为碳酸盐。 103,000-106,500元/吨。 吨，比上一个交易日减少了1,000元/吨。 在短期内，现货价格保持稳定，我们需要继续关注江西环境保护对供应方面的影响以及下游生产计划的实际增长。

■策略

两者合计，尽管供应方面有干扰和需求的改善，但锂价格在短期内仍然得到一些支持。 长期的供应侧压力仍然存在，在短期内，建议在范围内拭目以待或操作。 长期供应方面的压力仍然存在。 如果市场中的反弹很高，并且生产公司的利润更高，它可以选择机会在市场上出售后来的产品进行对冲。 有必要严格遵守对冲法规，并在风险压力测试方面做得很好，并准备进行现场生产。 对于投机者来说，建议在短期内等待和查看或操作，并且职位管理和风险控制需要做得很好。 当前，主要合同职位相对较大，随后的降低职位可能会对市场产生更大的影响。 您需要注意减少位置的风险。

■风险点

1.下游成品的清单很高，原材料的清单很低。

2.锂原材料的稳定供应，矿山到达港口的到来和建筑开始，

3.职位数量和交货情绪的变化的影响，

4.第一季度的终端消费和补给状况，

5.碳酸锂的进口情况。

黑色建筑材料

钢：终端需求仍然很低，市场价格较弱

逻辑和观点：

昨天，Thread 2405合同以3,479元/吨关闭，下降70元/吨，比前一天收于1.97％； 主要热线圈2405合同收于3,717元/吨，下降65元/吨，比前一天收于1.72％。 就现货价格而言，现货价格持续下跌，钢现场交易总体疲软，比昨天每月稍好一些。 夜间反弹后，早上以低价猜测，但现场情绪仍然很弱，交易在下午减弱。 昨天，国家建筑材料交易为11.10吨。

两者合计：黑人商品期货最近变得虚弱且动荡，钢的整体表现仍然比季节性弱，而且该行业的负面反馈情绪也加剧了。 昨天，废钢的到来大幅反弹，这对收费的价格施加了下降的刺激。 蜗牛的市场价格大大下降，看跌感官也很强劲。 成品材料的改善并没有刺激现货价格。 可以看出，建筑材料消耗的恢复仍然很慢，导致整个产业链的抑制。 目前，整个钢铁行业主要被建筑材料拖延，并且仍然面临着更大的下降恢复风险。

战略：

单方面：震惊

跨颞：无

交叉变化：无

期货：没有

选项：无

关注点和风险：钢厂维护，需求减弱，钢铁出口和钢厂利润等。

铁矿石：市场情绪是悲观的，铁矿石价格向下波动

逻辑和观点：

昨天，主要的铁矿石合同2405向下波动，以805.5元/吨的关闭，下降了3.53％，下降了29.5元/吨。 昨天，该职位减少了10,000批次。 On the spot side, the price of imported iron ore at Qingdao Port fell by a total of 7 to 17 yuan throughout the day. The current PB powder is 788, and the super special powder is 629. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore in major ports across the country was 830,000 tons, down 9% from the previous month. The cumulative forward spot transaction volume was 795,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 34.8%.

Overall, foreign ore shipments and port arrivals rebounded simultaneously this week. As the end of the quarter approaches, shipments from Australia and Pakistan are expected to surge, and short-term supply pressure still exists. Iron ore demand has shown a marginal improvement, with hot metal recovering slightly last week. However, the resumption of production by steel plants is slow, the pressure on the supply side of iron ore is strong, and ports continue to accumulate inventory, coupled with pessimistic market sentiment, the improvement in iron ore fundamentals limited. Be wary of the risk of fluctuations in the long-short game on the market.

战略：

Unilateral: None

Cross-variety: None

Intertemporal: None

Futures: None

选项：无

Points of concern and risk: hot metal output of steel plants, profits and maintenance status of steel plants, overseas shipments, macroeconomic environment, etc.

Dual-coke: The seventh round of promotion and reduction begins, and coal and coke prices fall significantly

Logic and perspective:

Yesterday, black commodities continued their decline, with raw materials continuing to lead the decline. At the close of trading, the main coking coal 2405 contract closed at 1,569 yuan/ton, down 69.5 yuan/ton from the previous day, and closed down 4.24%; coke 2405 closed at 2,057 yuan/ton, down 71.5 yuan/ton from the previous day, and closed down 3.36%. In terms of spot prices, the current weak expectations of double focus are fermenting. There are more market news, coupled with the impact of emotions, the overall decline is more. Yesterday, the spot price of quasi-first-grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,930 yuan/ton, which was the same as yesterday. In terms of coking coal, the starting price of high-sulfur main coking coal (S2.5 A10.5 G70) in the Linfen area of ​​Shanxi Province was 1,550 yuan/ton, with a quantity of 15,000 tons. In the end, all bids were rejected. The starting price of the previous period was 1,670 yuan/ton, and all bids were failed. In terms of imported Mongolian coal, customs clearance at Ganqimaodu Port fluctuated at a high level. 1,015 cars were cleared yesterday. Considering that there is still a seventh round of improvement expectations for coke, the downstream still maintains a wait-and-see attitude. The price of Mongolian 5 Changxie raw coal is around 1,300-1,320 yuan/ton. 跑步。

Taken together: Coking coal shows a weak supply and demand pattern. In the short term, affected by falling demand and falling prices, supply is not as good as seasonal performance. In the long term, it is restricted by the "three supers" governance, which will lead to a decline in supply, while demand is due to poor downstream consumption and congestion in intermediate links. Coking coal inventories were also weaker than the same period. Although coking coal inventories performed well, they were still suppressed by negative feedback from the industrial chain and prices continued to fall. Follow-up attention will be paid to the improvement of steel consumption and the recovery of coking coal supply; coke shows a weak supply and demand pattern. Due to the continued losses of coke enterprises, production does not increase but declines. Hot metal production also remains declining. Coupled with insufficient speculative demand, coke consumption is weaker than seasonal , although the overall inventory remains depleted, coke prices are still weak. We will pay attention to the improvement of steel consumption in the future and take a neutral view in the short term. We should always pay attention to the supply situation of coking coal and the urgent need for steel mills to replenish their inventories under the background of resumption of production.

战略：

Coke aspect: shock

Coking coal: shock

Cross-variety: none

Futures: None

选项：无

Points of concern and risk: steel mill profits, surface demand repairs, coking profits, coal imports, external macroeconomic operations, etc.

Thermal coal: The price continues to weaken as negative factors increase

Logic and perspective:

In terms of futures and spot prices: In terms of origin, coal prices in origin continue to run weakly and steadily, the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, coal mine sales are under pressure, and price adjustments are mostly downward. In terms of ports, demand continues to be sluggish, and upstream supply continues to recover. Low-cost resources have a significant impact on the port market. After prices fell, inquiry demand improved slightly, but transactions were still insufficient. In terms of imports, the price of imported coal has no advantage, market expectations are mostly pessimistic, and actual transactions are limited. In terms of freight rates, as of March 27, the Ocean Coal Freight Index (OCFI) was reported at 603.53 points, an increase of 4.89 points from the previous trading day.

Demand and logic: The short-term coal supply shows a loose pattern, downstream demand is less than expected, inventories are still at a high level compared with previous years, and there is obvious pressure to increase coal prices. In the medium to long term, we need to pay attention to the degree of disruption to supply under safety requirements, and at the same time pay attention to the replenishment of non-thermal coal. Due to the serious insufficient flow of futures, it is recommended to wait and see.

Follow and risk points: The dynamics of coal mine security supervision, changes in the port of ports, the daily consumption of electric coal and chemical coal, and other emergencies.

Glass pure alkali: spot production and sales flat glass -alkali shock fell

Logic and point of view:

In terms of glass, yesterday, the main glass contract of the glass fell at 2405, closed at 1474 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.14%. In terms of spot, the average national price yesterday was 1784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton month -on -month. The transactions in North China are weak, the East China market is cautious, and the South China market is mainly stable. On the whole, glass as the industrial product of the completion of the real estate. Because the real estate completion after the Spring Festival fell year -on -year, the glass consumption also showed the characteristics of the peak season. 没有缓解。 Considering the weak adjustment capacity of the glass supply side and the characteristics of long regulating cycle, it is expected that the glass will gradually interpret the direction of loss, forcing the enterprise to make a cold repairs. Therefore, although the price of glass has reached the low position, the price of price continues to be fully attached to high supply.

In terms of soda ash, yesterday's main soda ash contract 2409 fluctuated and fell, closing at 1736 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton, or 2.42%. In terms of spot prices, the domestic soda ash market trend is light and stable, the market transaction atmosphere is average, and the operating rate is 88.77%. Overall, the downstream replenishment of soda ash has basically come to an end, and the number of available days for glass plants in heavy alkali continues to rise. After a substantial replenishment of light alkali in the first two weeks, there are also signs of slowing down replenishment this week. Longzhong Ben According to statistics on Monday, soda ash inventories have also begun to accumulate. The overall soda ash supply and demand are still not optimistic, and prices are expected to continue to remain volatile and weak.

战略：

In terms of glass: weak shock

In terms of pure alkali: shock and weak

Cross -breed: None

Out of date: None

Follow and risk points: Real estate policy, ponogyle import and export data, and cold repair of floating glass production lines.

Double Silicon: Futures prices have reached a new low spot transaction.

Logic and point of view:

In terms of silicon manganese, the main contract of silicon manganese yesterday closed at 6100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13%. In stock, the mainstream price of the north is 5750-5880 yuan/ton, and the mainstream prices of the south are about 6000-6050 yuan/ton. The start of the production area has maintained a low level, and the downstream is carefully purchased. The number of days available for steel mills has continued to decline. Enterprise inventory has begun to accumulate rapidly, and it is at a high level in previous years. Generally speaking, the operating rate of silicon manganese has maintained a weak trend. The bidding of steel mills this week may increase, but the purchase volume is relatively small. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the re -production of steel mills, changes in the output of silicon manganese, and the policy of production areas.

In terms of silicon iron, the main contract of silicon iron was closed at 6,372 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 0.41%. In terms of spot, the main production area 72 Silicon Iron Natural Block Cash included taxes of 6050-6200 yuan/ton, and 75 Silicon Iron Natural Block 6300-6450 yuan/ton. Due to the decline in the cost of orchid charcoal, the cost of silicon iron was loosened, but the price of silicon fell, the profit of corporate profits fell simultaneously, and the shipments remained low. Generally speaking, the supply and demand of silicon iron is stalemate, and the downstream is affected by the sluggish market. The overall feedback is the same.

战略：

Silicon manganese: shock

Silicon iron: shock

Cross -breed: None

Out of date: None

Follow and risk points: changes in capacity utilization, changes in electricity prices in the south, and five major materials output.

农产品

Oil: The supply gradually relaxs, the oil continues to fall

■ 市场分析

In terms of futures, yesterday's palm oil 2405 contract was 8130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 136 yuan month -on -month, a decrease of 1.65%; yesterday's soybean oil was 7684 yuan/ton, a month -on -month decrease of 100 yuan, a decrease of 1.28%; Tons fell 132 yuan month -on -month, a decrease of 1.61%. In terms of spot, the current price of palm oil in Guangdong is 8,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan month -on -month, and a decrease of 1.89%. Yuan/ton, a decline of 1.13%, the spot base difference Y05+216, an increase of 10 yuan month -on -month; the price of the fourth -level vegetable oil in Jiangsu area was 8210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan month -on -month, a decrease of 1.56%. 2元。

Recent market information summary: Last week, the domestic oil plant's starting rate dropped slightly, and the demand for downstream was average. Domestic soybean oil inventory dropped slightly. Monitoring shows that on March 22, the soybean oil inventory of major oil mills across the country was 740,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons on a week-on-week basis, a decrease of 180,000 tons from the stage high on December 15, the same as the same period last year, and a decrease from the average of the past three years. 200,000 tons, which is at a medium level during the same period in history. Driven by factors such as rising palm oil prices and falling inventories, domestic soybean oil prices have risen sharply since February. With the supply of soybeans tightening, domestic soybean oil prices are expected to remain strong in March. After April, as imported soybeans arrive in Hong Kong, domestic soybean oil supply will increase significantly. By then, the rising momentum of soybean oil prices will weaken, and the price trend may turn from strong to weak. Argentine soybean oil (April shipping period) C & F price was $ 964/ton, which was raised by $ 10/ton compared with the previous trading day; Argentine soybean oil (June shipping period) C & F price was $ 971/ton. Compared with the previous trading day flat. Canadian imported vegetable oil C & F quotation: imported vegetable oil (April shipping period) C & F price is $ 1090/ton, which is the same as the previous trading day; imported vegetable oil (June shipping period) C & F price is 1110 yuan/ton, and the previous trading day Compared to the same.

Yesterday, the prices of the three major oils continued to fall. Affected by the decline in international oil prices and BMD hair palm oil futures, the recent superposition of supply gradually relaxed, and the three major oils continued to decline. In terms of palm oil, palm oil has a large premium for soybean oil. Due to the good cost performance of soybean oil, some of the non -rigid palm oil shares are gradually replaced by soybean oil. The contradiction between supply and demand is gradually resolved, and palm oil is likely to weaken.

■ 策略

中性的

■ Risk

没有任何

Oil: Peanut quotation in some production areas rose rising

Soybean view

■ 市场分析

In terms of futures, yesterday's closing bean 1 2405 contract was 4731 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day, and a decrease of 0.31%. In terms of spot, the consumption of bean spot difference between the Bayan area of ​​Heilongjiang is 15-31, an increase of 15 from the day before, and the consumption of bean spot difference between the edible bean spot in Baoqing area of ​​Heilongjiang is 15-31, an increase of 15 from the previous day; 31, rose 15 compared with the day before yesterday; the spot difference between the consumption of beans in the Shangzhi area of ​​Heilongjiang, a 05-31, increased by 15 from the day before.

Recent market information summary: According to foreign media news, a few days before the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released the latest estimate, Kluis Commodity Advisors/Successful Farming was investigated in 2024 that US farmers will sow more soybeans this year, But not as much as the US Department of Agriculture predicted last month. According to the survey, the total planting area of ​​corn, soybean and wheat in 2024 will reach 226 million acres, below 227.8 million acres in 2023. Conab: As of March 24, Brazilian soybean harvesting rate was 66.3%, 61.9%last week, and 69.1%in the same period last year. ANEC: Brazil's March soybean exports were 13.49 million tons, a decrease of 520,000 tons compared with the estimated 14.01 million tons last week. If this prediction is confirmed, the export will be lower than 14.44 million tons in March last year. According to ANEC's data, this is the highest monthly output in 2023. The export of soybean meal in Brazil in March was 1.9 million tons, which was lower than the 1.13 million tons predicted last week. Secex: In the 4th week of March 2024, a total of 16 working days were installed with a total of 9.9178 million tons of soybeans, and March last year was 13.241 million tons. The average daily shipping volume was 619,900 tons/day, an increase of 7.67%from the 575,700 tons/day in March last year; the cumulative soybean meal was 1.441 million tons, and March last year was 1.9152 million tons. The average daily shipping volume was 90,100 tons/day, an increase of 8.17%from the 83,300 tons/day in March last year.

Yesterday, the price of Doudou's futures fluctuated. In terms of spot, the prices of the Northeast production areas and the southern production areas have basically maintained stable. The southern production areas are slightly loose, and the overall market transaction is still relatively light. 强的。 From the perspective of the market market, although the downstream demand has improved, the too low price is not conducive to the enthusiasm of farmers' shipments. The overall amount of goods will not be too high, and the continuation of the shock pattern will be continued.

■ 策略

Unilateral neutral

■ Risk

没有任何

Peanut view

■ 市场分析

In terms of futures, yesterday's close peanuts were 9,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.52%. In terms of spot, PK10+1050, the spot difference between the Hengshui area of ​​Hebei, fell 50 from the previous day; the spot difference between the spot difference between the spot of spot PK10+750 in the Nanyang area in Henan, an increase of 150 from the previous day;

Recent market information summary: Baisha Tongmi, Henan Huangluodian area is about 5.2 yuan/catties, and Da Peanutta rice is about 5.0 yuan/catties in Kaifeng Tongxu area. Recently The inquiry has improved slightly, the price is stable and strong, and the price of most areas is basically stable. The mainstream 5.0-5.2 yuan/catties of the mainstream of 308 Tongmi rice in Jinzhou City, Liaoning, about 5.2-5.3 yuan/jin of Tieling City 308 meters of good meters, and the transaction of negotiations is issued. 稳定的; yesterday, Xiaomi, Little Japan, about 4.95-5.0 yuan/catties, the price is about 5 points stronger than the above set. Jilin area is about 5.2 yuan/catties of rice, about 5.2-5.3 yuan/kg of 9616 meters, 9616 meters of rice 5.2-5.3 yuan/catties. Farmers are not active in selling goods, there are not many supply in the production area, the amount of goods is not large, the inquiry is general, and the price is relatively large. 光滑的。 The mainstream of Haihua Tongmi, Linyi City, Shandong is about 4.9 yuan/catties, and about 5.0 yuan/jin of individual good goods. In quality, in terms of quality, the amount of goods on most areas is not large, the price is generally stable, and the oil plants in some areas are received by oil plants in some areas. The influence, the price is 5 points-1 hair.

Yesterday, the price of peanut futures stimulated. In terms of spot, the willingness to enter the market for some main oil factories has increased, traders have begun to make up their libraries, and the supply of production areas has less supply. The overall price of price is strong. From the perspective of the price improvement and the warm weather, the supply will increase, but downstream demand will be increased, but downstream demand will Generally, the foundation difference continues to weaken, and the price is difficult to rise sharply, and the subsequent shock pattern is continued.

■ 策略

Unilateral neutral

■ Risk

Demand weakened

Feed: It is expected to increase in Hong Kong, soybean meal is weak

Meal view

■ 市场分析

In terms of futures, yesterday's soybean meal 2405 contract was 3261 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.09%; the rational meal 2405 contract was 2642 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the day before, an increase of 0.08%. In terms of spot, the spot price of soybean meal of soybean meal in Tianjin area was 3470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot difference M05+163, a 7th decrease from the previous day; the spot price of soybean meal in Guangdong is 3510 yuan/ton, which is the same as before the day before. The spot price of vegetable meal in Fujian area is 2610 yuan/ton, which is flat compared to the previous day.

Recent market information, PRO Farmer said on March 26 that Michael Cordonnier maintains Brazil's 23/24 of soybeans and corn outputs of 1.45 and 112 million tons unchanged, and the prospects are neutral; maintaining Argentina's 23/24 years of soybeans and soybeans The corn output is estimated to be 5100 and 55 million tons unchanged. Waiting for the evaluation of flood loss in the central and eastern part of last week, the prospects are slightly neutral. DERAL said on March 26 that the agency's monthly report to maintain the 1,8.23 million tons of soybean production in Parrana, Brazil's Parana 23/24; of which, the seeding area and the production were maintained 5.764 million hectares and the 3.163 tons/hectares were unchanged. Soybean in Parana, Brazil has closed 87%in 23/24, 80%in the previous week, and 77%in the previous week, with 82.6%in five years; 76%of them are excellent, 23%, and 1%worse. Baya Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Federation, March 26, vice chairman of the institution, stated that the 23/24 of Baya Brazil has received approximately 80%, and the initial expected production is 3.6-3.9 tons/hectares, but it is currently expected to be reduced 4-5%. Pan said that as of March 22, the gains of Brazilian soybeans in 2023/24 reached 69.33%, higher than 62.25%a week ago, lower than 70.42%in the same period last year, and 71.73%lower than the historical average. The production of Brazilian soybeans in 2023/24 is 1431.8 billion tons. Secex said that from March 1st to 22nd, 2024, Brazilian soybean exports were 9.918 million tons, higher than 6.38 million tons a week ago. The full-month export volume in March last year was 13.241 million tons. The average daily export volume so far in March is 619,863 tons, an increase of 7.7% from 575,713 tons in the same period last year. The European Commission said that as of March 23, the EU imported 9 million tons of soybeans in 2023/24, which was slightly higher than the same 8.99 million tons. In the same period, the imported soybean meal was 10.6 million tons, which was lower than the same 11.7 million tons. Imported rapeseed 4.1 million tons, which is also lower than the same 6.2 million tons.

Yesterday, the price of soybean meal fluctuated in a narrow range. On the whole, the price of soybean meal maintained this week was maintained. On the one hand, it was affected by the continuous rise in the current rising water of Brazil. The stimulus of the news has led to the simultaneous rise in domestic soybean meal prices. In addition, due to the influence of soybeans to Hong Kong, domestic oil factories have emerged. With the rise of spot prices and the improvement of downstream profits, the low -end terminals and traders inventory have begun to actively make up the library. Generally speaking, although soybean meal prices have corrected late last week, the overall trend has not changed. In the future, we need to focus on the intended planting area report and quarterly inventory report to be released by the US Department of Agriculture on the 28th. It is expected that soybean meal prices will remain stable in the future. Strong operation.

■ 策略

Unilaterally watch

■ Risk

Brazil's output is not as good as expected

Corn view

■ 市场分析

In terms of futures, yesterday's closing corn 2405 contract was 2384 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.04%; the corn starch 2405 contract was 2831 yuan/ton, a down 16 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.56%. In terms of spot, the spot price of corn in Liaoning is 2340 yuan/ton, which is flat from the previous day. , Increased by 16 than the day before.

Recent market information, statistics from the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat show that from March 1st to 22nd, 2024, Brazil's corn export volume is 246,000 tons, which is higher than 228,000 tons a week ago; The 58,000 tons of the same period decreased by 73.6%; the average export price was $ 275.3/ton, a decrease of 8.5%from US $ 300.9 last year.

Yesterday, the corn price of the corn was fluctuated. In the country, the supply side, the restaurant in the northeast region was further reduced. The natural air -dry grains in some areas were gradually listed, the market purchase and sales activities were stable, and the grassroots supply was relatively sufficient. In terms of demand, traders and drying towers are basically completed and demand has slowed. The demand for breeding is still weak. The advantages of imported corn and imported sorghum barley have obvious advantages. The demand for domestic corn is squeezed, and downstream deep processing and feed companies are used. This week, focusing on changes in the rhythm of farmers' grain sales, and the willingness to build libraries in traders and downstream enterprises. It is expected that the price of corn this week will operate strongly.

■ 策略

中性的

■ Risk

没有任何

Breeding: Be cautious for the second child to enter the venue, and the future price of pigs is weak and shocks

猪

■ 市场分析

In terms of futures, yesterday closed the 2405 contract of 15355 yuan/ton, a down 210 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 1.35%. In terms of spot, the price of a three -yuan pig outside Henan area was 15.46 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.14 yuan compared to the previous day. , The spot difference LH05+405, an increase of 200 from the previous day; the price of a three-dollar pig outside Sichuan area was 15.06 yuan/kg, which is the same as the previous day.

Recent market information, according to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry, the "200 Index 200 Index of Agricultural Products Wholesale Price" was 123.36, a decrease of 0.04 points from yesterday. The "vegetable basket" product wholesale price index was 124.58, a decrease of 0.03 points from yesterday. As of 14:00 today, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 20.34 yuan/kg, down 0.9% from yesterday.

Yesterday, the future price of pigs was weak. Taken together, the market and spot price of last week increased a large increase. But currently pigs are still in a weak supply and demand. The supply side of the supply side is difficult to sell and consumer. From the current market, the market is more optimistic about the market in the second half of the year. If the future price continues to give profits, there may be secondary fattening to continue to enter the market, so as to benefit the future spot prices. It is expected that the price of pigs is expected to fluctuate in the short term.

■ 策略

Unilaterally watch

■ Risk

Supply pressure increase after the holiday

Egg view

■ 市场分析

In terms of futures, yesterday's closed eggs were 3373 yuan/500 kg, an increase of 21 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.63%. In terms of spot, the spot price of eggs in Liaoning is 3.2 yuan/catties, down 0.1 yuan from the previous day, and the spot base difference JD05+173, a decrease of 121 from the previous day; -343, a decrease of 61 compared to the day before; the spot price of eggs in Shandong was 3.3 yuan/catties, down 0.1 yuan from the previous day, and the spot base difference JD05-73, a decrease of 121 from the previous day.

Recent market information, on March 26, the national production link inventory was 1.29 days, an increase of 0.08 days before the day before, and the inventory of circulation was 1.84 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the day before.

Yesterday, the price of the egg was shocked. Taken together, it is still in the off -season of consumption. With the continuous repair of market demand, the market sentiment has heated up. It is expected that the spot price may stabilize the shock. In the short term, the price of the market shakes, and it is recommended that investors be cautious to wait and see.

■ 策略

中性的

■ Risk

没有任何

Fruit and vegetable products: Apple inventory is higher than the same period, and the pressure of red jujube warehouse bills still exist

Apple view

■Market analysis

In terms of futures, the Apple 2405 contract was 7742 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.71%. In terms of spot, the spot price of 80# commodity fruit in Qixia area in Shandong is 3.4 yuan/catties, which is the same as the previous day. It is the same as the previous day, the spot difference AP05-140, an increase of 60 from the previous day.

Market information, the enthusiasm of the Qingming stocking in the place of origin is not obvious. The mainstream prices of the market are still the mainstream prices. The Shandong production area is mainly based on low-cost supply transactions. Qixia 80#1 and two-level fruit farmers are good at 3.0-3.2 yuan/catties, and 80#1 and two-level fruit farmers generally cargo 2.5-2.8 yuan/jin. Yiyuan 75#General supply is 1.3-1.5 yuan/catties, good goods are 2.1-2.3 yuan/catties, and the fruit is 0.6-0.8 yuan/jin. The overall transaction atmosphere in the Northwest production area is still average, and the number of merchants in finding good goods has increased. Luochuan 70#above fruit farmers 2.7-3.3 yuan/jin, merchant cargo 80#semi-products 4.5-5.3 yuan/jin; white water 70#or more fruit farmers general cargo prices of 2.2-2.4 yuan/jin; #The mainstream price of fruit farmers is 1.3-1.5 yuan/catties, and Qin Guan's foreign trade orders are still available; good goods are difficult to find by by-production areas, and fruit agricultural goods are slow. Discuss in quality. The number of market arrival in the market has increased, and the market has been around 30 vehicles. The market transaction atmosphere has improved. At present, the remaining supply of the market transit library in the market of the Dragon Sales Zone is mainly the main quality.

Yesterday, Apple Futures closed down, and the stock preparation before the Qingming Festival was generally as good as expected. The inventory of the production area was higher than the same period of previous years. The inventory pressure was still large. Last week, the overall transaction of Shandong production area was slow. Most of the merchants were inquiring, and a small amount of prices were acquired. The actual transaction was limited. The actual transaction price of fruit farmers is weak, and some fruit farmers have reduced prices and promoted sale, and the prices of fruit farmers have continued to decline. During the week, the delivery speed of Shaanxi production areas slowed down from the previous month. High -quality supply and merchants were high, and the actual transactions were limited. Most transactions were concentrated in low prices of the by -production area to pick up and high sub -goods. Lord, the goods are accelerated, and the price of small fruit is strong. In the Zhou Dynasty, merchants in Shanxi's production areas replenished on demand, and the atmosphere of the preparation of Qingming was average. Merchants in Liaoning production areas have increased goods, and they are mainly due to their currency. Last week, the overall marketing atmosphere of the market was poor, and high -quality good goods transactions were mainly. The clear and clear is approaching. The wholesalers may be concentrated in the week before the festival to make replenishment and pay attention to the market arrival situation of this week. It is expected that under the support of festivals this week, the spot price is temporarily stable. The focus of attention this week: the stock preparation situation of the place of origin, the attitude of the merchants and the fruit farmers, the market transaction atmosphere of the market in the sales area, and the quality of the stock supply source.

■Strategy

要小心

■ Risk

Global economic recession (downlink risk); consumption is not as expected (downward risk); weather conditions (downward risk)

红枣

■Market analysis

In terms of futures, the 2405 contract of 12230 yuan/ton closed yesterday, a decrease of 265 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 2.12%. In terms of spot, the first -class red dates in Xinjiang production area are at 14.43 yuan/kg, which is the same as the previous day. The spot base difference CJ05+2200, an increase of 270 from the previous day; The spot is flat, the spot difference CJ05-30, an increase of 270 from the previous day.

Recent market information, the average cost of the main production area of ​​the 23rd season is 10.60 yuan/kg, and the price of the late Aksu area is stable at 9.80-10.80 yuan/kg. 11.50 yuan/kg, the main procurement is mainly Xinjiang enterprises and the current company, and the purchase volume of mainland merchants is significantly lower than the same period. The new year's inventory structure is different from previous years. The remaining sources are mostly concentrated in various cut libraries and large enterprises. Recently, the number of merchants returned to Xinjiang will increase in price. Hebei Cuierzhuang's red jujube trading market has a total of more than 20 cars, including part of the unpaid supply of the previous day. According to the different quality of the goods, there is a certain price difference at the same level. Class 11.00-11.40 yuan/kg, the price is slightly loosened by 0.10 yuan/kg, the transaction is average, and the low-end supply of the same level is favored by the market. Refer to the market-level special level 13.20-14.00 yuan/kg, the first-level price reference is 12.00-12.80 yuan/kg, the second-level reference is 11.20-11.50 yuan/kg, and the third-level price reference is 10.80 yuan/kg.

After the price of the red dates rose the day before yesterday, it fell yesterday. When the warehouse was relocated to the monthly, the warehouse orders still put pressure on the market. The fundamental angle was also interweaving. In the case of or maintain interval, pay attention to downstream consumption. The weather turns hot, red dates need to be weakened. During the low season of the off -season, the small peaks of stocking before the Qingming Festival have fallen. The market supply in the sales area is sufficient, and the sales pressure is high. It is earlier from the Dragon Boat Festival. If the market continues to supply and consumption is sluggish, the spot price may continue to loosen; but on the other hand, after the low -priced source digestion, high -priced goods occupy later in the later period. Leading, cost side or providing certain support. Traders actively participate in the form of basis trading, adjust the procurement plan according to the change of market price changes, and become a balancer in the market price. Although the mainland inventory is located at the low level over the years, the rise in futures prices and the current company's shipments are balanced with each other, and the influence of inventory on prices has been reduced. However, the market still has some expectations for the Dragon Boat Festival stocking, and pay attention to whether the buying funds continue to enter the market. The price of the price transaction fluctuates, extend the shock time, the demand for the Dragon Boat Festival and macro emotions may become a disk variable.

■Strategy

The shock is weak

■ Risk

Local governments' bottom policy (uplink risk), high temperature and drought weather (far -month contract risk), global economic recession (downward risk), consumption is not as expected (downward risk)

Soft products: Lack of obvious driving, the sector continues to fluctuate

棉花观

■Market analysis

In terms of futures, yesterday's closing cotton 2405 contract was 15,895 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.31%. The number of positions is 447792, and the number of warehouse bills is 1,4220. In terms of spot, Xinjiang's 3128B cotton Xinjiang to the factory price was 16720 yuan/ton, an increase of 96 yuan/ton from the previous day. The national average price was 17007 yuan/ton, an increase of 49 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot difference CF05+1110, an increase of 100 from the previous day.

Recent market information, according to foreign media news, the recent harvesting of Xinnan cotton in Argentina is slowly advancing. At present, the main production area of ​​Chake in the cotton area is less than 5,000 hectares. The progress is expected to accelerate in April. Judging from the growth of new cotton, the cotton plant is currently good. However, due to the prevalence of high temperature and the lack of local rainfall, cotton farmers are concerned that the growth of cotton plants in the later period may be adversely affected. It is reported that soybeans have been affected by adverse weather. The local meteorological department predicts that there are still sporadic rainfall in Chake in the short term. Due to the limited rainfall, the main cotton area may continue to dry. There is a probability of suffering from storm in other areas. It is expected that the duration is short, or it will bring certain rainfall to the local area, which is conducive to the maturity of cotton plants.

Yesterday, Zheng Mian's future price fluctuated and fell. Internationally, the speculative buying of speculative buying has increased, and the external disk has risen in the international aspects of Microblavia's inventory, the export signing progress is fast, and the settlement rate is low. The decline has continued to strengthen recently, and the outer disk has fallen rapidly. In the short term, due to the tight cotton supply, the possibility of squeezing warehouses in the outer disk is still possible, but the cotton production of cotton in the next year is expected to be significantly recovered, and the market lacks continuous upward momentum. In China, the current domestic cotton supply is relatively sufficient, focusing on the situation where the demand for "gold, three silver and four" recovers. After the festival, the tentative tentative yarn price is raised, but the transaction is less, and the new orders have not been obviously issued. The cotton yarn library continues to increase. In addition, the sales progress of the ruling factory is still slow, and there is a strong pressure on the rising. In the short term, domestic supply is loose and the demand for peak season is not as good as expected. There is a recovery pressure on cotton prices. It is also small, and it is expected to continue to maintain interval fluctuations in the short term, waiting for new drivers. Continue to pay attention to the planting area of ​​new cotton and weather in the middle and long term.

■Strategy

中性的

■ Risk

Macro and policy risks

泥浆

■Market analysis

In terms of futures, yesterday closed the 2405 contract of 6090 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.53%. In terms of spot, the spot price of "Silver Star" in Shandong area is 6200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The "Moon" coniferous paste in Shandong is 6200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The "horse brand" coniferous paste in Shandong is 6200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price of "Beimi" in Shandong area is 6,300 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous day.

Recent market information, the game of the double rubber paper market continued yesterday, and the transaction performance was mediocre. Cost support factors are relatively strong, and factories continue to support prices. Recently, party and government paper has given the market to certain support at the stage; there is no sign of concentrated release for publishing orders; social needs are still not strong, users just need to buy, traders promote shipments, and local inverted phenomena, 70g roll double tube paper paper paper paper paper paper paper double gel paper The mainstream market price is 5700-6000 yuan/ton. Yesterday, the copper version of the copper version was stable, and the industry's watching mood continued. Factory production continues to be stable, and the focus is on taking orders and shipping goods. The price of wood pulp is strong. In the first half of the year exhibitions and various propaganda, the amount of paper is acceptable. The publishing demand has not been concentrated for the time being. The user is mainly based on the amount of mining. The price range of the mainstream branding copper version paper is 5700-6100 yuan/ton.

The pulp price fluctuated yesterday. In terms of supply, the Finnish strike caused the port transportation to stagnate, and some of the larvae factories were suspended due to the interruption of transportation, and the supply disturbance continued. The international pulp factories have strongly promoted their emotions. The latest rounds of coniferous pulp and broad -lobe paste in the outer disk have increased, further supporting domestic imported wood pulp spot prices to strengthen. In addition, although the import volume of wood pulp in my country from January to February is still high, European pulp and paper consumption has been recovered recently, and the number of wood pulp shipments will return to the European market to a certain extent. In terms of demand, the downstream is in the peak of the bidding order. As cost support strengthens, the downstream finished paper has risen to the ground one after another, and market confidence has boosted. On the whole, under supply disturbances, the price of the outer disk still has expected bullishness. The early rising driver still exists. The domestic pulp market is expected to continue its strong shock.

■Strategy

太多了

■ Risk

Outer disk quotation exceeds expected changes, exchange rate risks

Sugar view

■Market analysis

In terms of futures, as of the closing of the day before, the closing price of the white sugar 2405 contract was 6483 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton month -on -month, an increase of 0.32%. In terms of spot, the spot price of white sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 6,600 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous day. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 6470 yuan/ton, which is flat from the previous day.

Recent market information, the consulting agency SAFRAS & Mercado said on Tuesday that the sugar output of 2024/25 in Brazil (central and southern) is expected to be 45.3 million tons, which is 44.08 million tons of 2023/24 years. Brazil's total sugarcane output in 2024/25 is expected to be 666 million tons, which is less than 706 million tons of 2023/24 years. 2024/25, Brazil's sugar export volume is estimated to be 32 million tons, which is the same year -on -year. SAFRAS said that in order to meet the long -term sales demand, the Brazilian Sugar Factory 2024/25 will take priority to produce sugar, and the output of ethanol may decrease accordingly.

Yesterday, the price of sugar fluctuated in a narrow range. Recently, due to the rise of the outer market, the domestic low inventory and the spot replenishment, Zhengtang continued to rebound to the front high. Internationally, Brazil's 23/24 crushing season is basically over, and India and Thailand's output is higher than previous expectations. 23/24 The supply and demand pattern of the squeezing season is gradually turning to loose. At present, Brazil's exports are smooth, and the shipping volume has maintained a high level. India is expected to continue the export ban in the short term, and the international trade flow is relatively tight. For the 24/25 crushing season, Brazil's sugar -making ratio is expected to maintain a high level. Insufficient rainfall leads to a decrease in production, but the probability of maintaining high yields as a whole is high. Improve production after production, temporarily treat them temporarily in the middle period, and pay attention to weather changes. Domestic aspects, domestic sugar is in the cumulative database cycle, but due to the rapid sales progress, the sugar factories and third -party inventory are at the same time. It is currently in the traditional off -season, but in the middle of the two weeks, the replenishment of the database was made, and the spot quotation was strong, and Zhengtang continued to rebound. The current focus of international attention lies in the expected production expectations of Brazil's new crushing season and Indian export policies. The short-term sugar operating range is 20-24 cents/pound. The focus of domestic attention lies in the strength of syrup control. Before the policy was clear, Zheng Tang followed the volatility of the outer disk and paid attention to the pressure nearby.

■Strategy

中性的

■ Risk

Macro, weather and policy impact

量化

The liquidity of the financial futures market: stock index futures funds flow out, national bond futures flow to differentiation

Stock index futures liquidity:

On March 27, 2024, the CSI 300 Futures (IF) sold 94.33 billion yuan, an increase of 3.83%over the previous trading day; the position of the position was 245.46 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.08%from the previous trading day; the transaction holding ratio was 0.38. The CSI 500 Futures (IC) transactions were 92.984 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.1%compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 265.461 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.15%from the previous trading day; the transaction holding ratio was 0.35. The transactions of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 (iH) were 37.727 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.12%from the previous trading day; the position of the position was 82.269 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.7%from the previous trading day; the transaction holding ratio was 0.46.

The liquidity of national bond futures:

On March 27, 2024, the two -year debt (TS) transaction was 66.434 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.61%from the previous trading day; the position of the position was 139.085 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.58%from the previous trading day; The annual debt (TF) transaction was 6.3304 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.67%from the previous trading day; the position of the position was 140.031 billion yuan, an increase of 3.61%over the previous trading day; 100 million yuan, an increase of 26.92%compared with the previous trading day; the position of the position was 203.59 billion yuan, an increase of 2.35%over the previous trading day; the transaction holding ratio was 0.38.

Llerance of commodity futures market: the first place in industrial silicon warehouse, iron ore reduction first

Variety liquidity:

On March 27, 2024, the iron ore reduction was 4.518 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.89%month -on -month. Industrial silicon increased positions was 17.217 billion yuan, an increase of NAN%month -on -month, ranking first in the entire variety of additional positions; gold, copper 5th and 10th, the most rolling positions; bronze and iron ore on the 5th and 10th. In terms of transactions, gold, threads, and palm oil were sold for 181.594 billion yuan, 107.021 billion yuan, and 103.072 billion yuan (81.62%, 15.17%, 6.68%), which ranked among the top three.

Plates liquidity:

The division of this report section adopts a large Wind commodity division standard, which is divided into 10 sections of non -color, oil oil, soft products, agricultural and sideline products, energy, coal coke steel ore, chemical, precious metals, grains and non -metal building materials. On March 27, 2024, the non -color sector was the first place in the position; the oil and oil sector was located at the top of the position. In terms of transaction volume, chemical industry, oil and oil, and precious metals were sold for 324.581 billion yuan, 320.526 billion yuan, and 253.288 billion yuan, ranking the top three in the sector transaction amount on that day; the trading of grains, agricultural and sideline products, and soft commodity sectors.