2023年春节期间全国建筑钢材运行情况

回望2023年春节伊始，随着疫情防控政策的调整和经济刺激政策的频繁出台，国内外对2023年中国经济复苏的预期逐渐形成共识与此同时，房地产政策的调整让房地产行业得到了喘息的机会，房地产行业将逐步走出低谷的迹象越来越明显。 除了宏观环境向好之外，钢铁行业基本面也出现好转迹象。 利润持续低迷，导致钢厂积极增产积极性不高。 建筑钢材产量同比处于绝对低位。 春节后的绝对库存增加，以及前期基建带来的高消费基数，使得节后消费韧性预期更强。 春节过后，市场是否会迎来预期的“开门红”行情？ 此轮行情能否持续？ 根据春节期间市场的一些变化，我的钢铁网也对节日期间各市场建筑钢材的品种和数据进行了简要的概述，仅供大家参考：

核心观点：

价格变化：春节期间，全国各地市场经常休市，部分地区价格小幅上涨。 整体价格波动变化不大，预计节后价格小幅高开；

供给情况：春节期间，建筑钢材产量跌至年内绝对低位，同比供给压力明显偏弱，节后产量将逐步回升；

库存情况：春节期间，市场到货相对集中，钢厂库存增幅较往年放缓，但前期在途资源增量略高于节前预期，年内库存已升至较高水平，但与往年相比，压力不大；

市场心态：目前厂家整体心态乐观。 除了产量低、成本高、库存低的基本面影响外，市场对节后消费全面恢复的预期强烈，预计节后价格将延续节前的强势走势。

市场情况回顾：

华东地区：（春节假期市场基本休市，预计节后价格上涨）

上海

春节期间，上海建筑钢材市场整体休市，报价稀少。 部分商家虽有报价，但并无实际成交。 整体价格较节前小幅上涨。 据我网调研，春节期间，冬储资源陆续到货，当地库存明显增加。 由于节前钢厂受利润限制，产量有限，出货不多。 叠加贸易商主动去库降低风险，当地库存相对较低。 因此，虽然节日期间到货有所增加，但整体出货压力有限，商家心态较为积极。 随着节后终端采购需求逐步恢复，价格有望迎来良好开局。

浙江

杭州：市场尚未开市，预计正月初八大部分商家上班。 库存方面，节后杭州库存85万吨-90万吨，节前10万吨左右。 码头放假，预计大年初八上班，等待卸货的船舶数量明显增加。 下游方面，少数项目已开工，大部分工地预计正月十五后开工。 目前市场心态良好，预计节后杭州建筑钢材价格将迎来一波上涨。

宁波：目前仍休市，市场无报价。 正式开始基本上是在初九之后。 市场库存仍维持在7.5万辆左右，与节前基本持平。 据商家反馈，节后市场库存到货仍有限，冬储资源量和速度都不及往年。 15日后下游工地基本复工。 商家对节后行情持乐观态度，预计节后市场价格将震荡上行。

台州：暂无报价。 商家基本都在初九上班。 春节期间，码头关闭。 因此市场基本没有到货，库存维持在5.5万吨的较低水平。 部分工地预计11日左右开工，大部分在15日后开工。 目前市场库存较低，冬储资源相对较少，商家较为乐观。 预计节后价格将走强。

温州：目前仍休市，暂无报价。 预计大年初八起商家将逐步恢复报价。 下游尚未复工，正月十五后工人已返岗，暂时无采购计划。 库存方面，目前Intertek码头库存约为4万吨，与节前持平。 17日至29日码头放假，停止所有装卸作业，30日恢复正常。 从船舶预测港口情况来看，今年整体到货情况不及往年，库存增量有限，商家整体心态乐观。 预计节后市场价格将迎来良好开局。

嘉兴：目前市场仍处于春节假期状态，市场暂无报价。 大多数商户计划在正月初八到初九上班。 库存方面，春节期间到货正常，需求停滞。 库存较节前增加18.36%。 下游方面，据市场了解，少部分节前备货的工地已于正月初二开工，大部分工地预计正月十五后复工。正月，工人基本就位。 综合来看，预计节后嘉兴市场建筑钢材价格在补库需求支撑下预计将强势震荡。

湖州：目前休市，无报价。 预计农历初八至初十企业复工。 工人还没有到位，下游还没有复工。 预计恢复时间为正月十五之后。 库存较节前增加3000吨，低于往年。 商家整体没有压力。 预计节后价格将出现剧烈波动。

绍兴：贸易商仍在放假，市场暂无报价。 预计从大年初八开始陆续恢复营业。 库存方面，春节期间到货有限，整体库存变化不明显。 下游复工预计在正月十五之后，预计节后价格先涨后跌。

金华：初八过后市场商户大部分开始上班。 库存方面，春节期间无发货，到货有限。 目前元力螺纹仍处于停产状态，市场库存较节前没有太大变化。 下游一侧，工地工人大部分在正月十五后抵达。 心态方面，多数商家认为节后有一定的补库需求，因此春节后短期内市场价格或将小幅上涨。

衢州：尚未开市。 预计大部分企业将从正月初八、初九开始逐步复工。 目前，没有报价。 下游无补库操作，无提前采购计划。 预计正月十五后，工人们将陆续返岗。 当地库存较节前小幅增加约1万吨，与去年基本持平。 商家普遍看好节后市场价格，预计节后短期内价格将震荡上涨。

丽水：目前商家仍处于休业状态，暂无报价。 预计正月初十开业。 当地库存较节前小幅增加。 市场整体库存约8000吨，较去年同期继续减少。 贸易商财务压力不大，心态乐观。 预计节后价格或将震荡上行。

江西

南昌：市场尚未开市。 预计部分商家将在正月初八复工，但正式销售预计要在正月初九之后。 库存方面，春节期间市场需求停滞，主流钢厂陆续到货。 节后，南昌库存39.99万吨，较节前库存增加约9.8万吨。 下游方面，仅有少数抢险工程复工，大部分工地预计正月十五后开工。 目前市场心态普遍乐观，预计节后南昌建筑钢材价格将以强势震荡为主。

赣州：目前赣州建材商户尚未开市，大部分商户计划在初八上班。 据不完全统计，当地建筑钢材库存约5.1万吨，较节前增加近2万吨。 与去年同期同口径相比，今年赣州建材库存将下降32%。 预计节后赣州建筑钢材价格或将出现剧烈波动。

九江：目前市场仍处于春节假期状态。 大多数贸易商在农历初八恢复营业。 目前市场上暂无报价。 库存方面，春节期间贸易商陆续到货。 多数贸易商库存较节前增加50%左右，个别贸易商库存增加明显。 下游方面，预计正月十五后大部分工地将复工。 但节前贸易商报价较为坚挺。 虽然节后需求尚未启动，但预计价格将出现剧烈波动。

新宇：目前建材商家尚未开市，大部分商家计划大年初八上班。 据不完全统计，当地建筑钢材库存约7.3万吨，较节前增加近3万吨。 与去年同期同口径相比，今年新余建筑钢材库存下降16.1%。 目前新余建材贸易商持乐观态度，预计新余建材市场价格将先行上涨。

鹰潭：目前市场仍处于春节假期状态。 今日市场虽有少数商家开工，但尚未报价。 大多数企业计划在农历正月初八到初九上班。 库存方面，今年春节期间到货较往年略有减少，库存较节前增加45%。 下游方面，据市场了解，这两天将有少量工地开工，预计正月十五后大部分工地将复工。 综合来看，目前市场商家态度较为乐观，预计节后鹰潭市场建筑钢材价格或将出现较强波动。

江苏

南京：节前南京市场南钢主流报价4160-4170元/吨左右。 节后，1月27日（初六）南京市场仍休市。 仅少数商家报价较高，主流报价在4200元/吨以上。 明天起贸易商陆续复工，传统做法迎来“开门红”。 预计钢厂和市场报价均上涨30-50元/吨。 库存方面，截至今日中午，南京市场同口径库存统计约为24.23万吨，较节前上周（1.19）增加3.12万吨​​。 据悉，今日部分仓库陆续开工，复工后短期内市场库存将快速积累。

苏南：今年苏南市场普遍休市，贸易商仍未正式开市，市场暂无有效报价。 据了解，苏州、无锡、常州的贸易商基本集中在初八至初十开市，少数贸易商将于2月1日开市。 仓库码头将于初五后逐步恢复正常卸货。 预计贸易商进出仓时将正式开市。 据了解，每个仓库内都有一定数量的船舶等待卸货。 今年累计库存总体少于去年，多数贸易商销售压力不大。 当前市场心态良好，普遍认为市场将迎来良好开局。

山东

春节期间，山东建材市场运行平稳。 一方面，山东市场正处于传统春节假期，市场需求停滞； 另一方面，节前市场贸易商主流冬储成本在3900元/吨左右，贸易商利润空间在150-200元/吨。 商务假期期间，仍可接单并锁货，并有一定的提现需求。 价格方面，节前省会地区螺纹钢主流价格4060-4070元/吨，胶东地区螺纹钢主流成交价格4750元/吨，山东地区螺纹钢主流成交价格地区4750元/吨。 节日期间，多数贸易商锁定价格在4750-4800元/吨，较节前小幅上涨30-50元/吨，但成交很少。 库存方面，山东13个主要城市建筑钢材库存总量为111.47万吨，较上周同期增加10.51%，较去年同期增加38.86%； 其中，螺纹钢较上周统计上涨9.97%； 周统计增长11.31%。 到货方面，省内莱钢、莱钢永丰、石横特钢、日钢资源产量较为稳定，其他钢厂均处于关停或检修状态。 省外资源方面，部分资源已抵达东北地区、江苏地区、山西地区，区域流动性持续走弱。 总体来看，今年春节期间，山东建材市场整体供需格局没有太大变化，市场处于有价无市的状态。 节后，多数商家认为钢厂出厂指导价有望上涨。 但由于需求恢复缓慢，首月市场成交很可能不佳。 最重要的是保证包的安全。

安徽

合肥：春节期间，安徽建材运行平稳。 节前最后一周，省内钢厂出厂价格小幅上涨20-30元/吨。 但由于频繁休市，成交稀少，市场现货价格大多保持稳定。 节日期间，大部分钢厂暂停发布出厂价格，预计明天开始调整现货出厂价格。 从目前的价格来看，市场现货价格有一定的上涨，而目前商家现货库存资源并不大，因此市场有一定的上涨。 价格方面，截至目前，省内龙头钢厂MG指导价为螺纹钢4440元/吨、卷螺4770元/吨、高线4690元/吨、4220元/吨。螺纹钢4520元/吨，卷螺4520元/吨。 吨。 库存方面，据我的钢铁样本库统计，安徽七大城市建筑钢材样本库总库存为31.56万吨，较去年同期增长0.46%。 与前期统计数据相比增长36.28%； 其中螺纹钢较前期统计数据增长34.69%； 线材卷材较前期统计数据增长41.69%。 与去年春节后第一周的库存情况相比，下降了23.25%。 供应方面，节日期间，省内长流程钢厂MG钢厂继续检修一座1000立方米高炉。 由于铁水不足，多余的铁水被转移到线圈中。 春节期间一条螺旋线开始检修。 预计检修至月底，日均影响0.2吨。 TLFX钢厂一座1280立方米高炉的检修预计到月底影响日产量5000吨。 春节期间其他长流程钢厂基本正常生产。 全省所有短流程钢厂节前停产，计划正月十六后复工。 整体来看，春节期间，全省钢厂供应压力不大。 整体来看，今年春节期间，安徽建材市场整体供需格局没有太大变化，市场处于有价无市的状态。 节前，由于区域价差较小，节前山东现货价格处于低位，国外资源流入较少，市场整体库存压力不大，整体市场心态偏淡。更优惠。 稳健经营是重中之重。

福建

市场尚未开市，商家大多在初七至初十开始施工。 考虑到工厂结算价较高，市场商家涨价意愿强烈，整体上涨预期较强。 库存方面，春节期间，福建高炉工厂小幅减产，整体产量低于预期。 目前，福建市场建材库存约80万吨。 综合来看，春节过后，成本支撑较为充足，整体价格强势运行的概率较大。 预计福建地区建筑钢材价格或将迎来开门红。

华南地区：（个别报价小幅上涨，节后价格走势强劲）

粤

广州：据悉，大部分贸易商在正月初八正式开工，部分商家推迟到正月初十左右开工。 虽然明天个别商家会开工，但大多都是零星报价。 价格方面，市场尚未开盘。 从贸易商反馈来看，节假日期间当地钢厂及周边钢厂基本稳定，但厂家对节后市场持乐观态度。 库存方面，据不完全统计，目前市场现货库存约为81万吨，较节前增加约10万吨，远低于去年同期。 节前，码头作业基本正常，但由于今年北方物资南下数量减少，整体到货量低于往年。 从市场反馈来看，春节假期期间大部分工地已停工，预计节后开工时间为元宵节后。 从目前市场情况来看，虽然春节假期期间市场价格基本稳定，但由于市场库存明显偏低，且钢厂库存偏低，整体市场心态良好。 未来广州的价格可能会稳定且相对坚挺。

深圳：市场尚未开市，节日期间市场无报价，部分商家计划初九开市。 节日期间，市场到货十分有限。 其中，福永仓库在假期期间停滞不前，计划在大年初八开业。 目前，平湖仓库、福永码头建筑钢材总库存约1.3万吨，较节前增加约2000吨； 其中螺纹约11500吨，卷螺约1500吨。 对于节后市场，当地商家较为乐观，普遍持看涨态度。

潮汕：春节期间，潮汕建材市场基本处于停滞状态。 虽然有的商户在大年初四、初五就开市了，但基本上都是放鞭炮，互相拜年。 目前市场上暂无报价。 到港方面，节日期间有新船抵港，但据了解，码头基本定于大年初八开工，因此新到港资源基本处于待产状态。卸货后，仓库库存与往年相比变化不大。 整体来看，今年春节后，潮汕地区建材库存较往年明显减少。 尤其是北方螺纹钢资源很少到货，节后出货压力较小。 预计节后潮汕建材市场将趋强。

广西

南宁：据了解，假期期间当地厂家上调建筑钢材价格60元/吨，当地贸易商基本计划1月31日前后回市，市场基本无报价。 需求方面，下游开工较晚，基本没有需求。 钢厂方面：当地龙头钢厂长流程钢厂维持节前生产，短流程钢厂基本仍处于停产状态，实际供应量较节前无明显变化。 南宁库存略有增加，基本在1.5万吨左右，因为贸易商基本都放在防城港仓库。 柳州库存方面，建筑钢材社会库存约26万吨，较节前增加约3万吨。 从目前情况看，商家表示节后会有良好开局，但后期还要看资金和库存的积累。

海南

海口：目前海南商家已开始陆续返场，少数商家已开始报价。 市场主导品牌报价4280元/吨，与节前价格持平。 海口建筑钢材库存17.17万吨，较节前增加7100吨，较去年减少4.68万吨。 库存较节前略有增加。 春节假期期间，码头放假，下周市场库存陆续到货。 考虑到钢厂检修，海南区域价差没有优势。 节前现货价格成本较高，商家冬储成本较高，市场冬储意愿较低，整体库存压力不大。 综合来看，随着项目陆续开工，市场气氛有所升温，预计海南建筑钢材价格将相对坚挺。

西南地区：（春节期间价格基本稳定，节后价格将走强）

四川

成都：春节期间市场基本休市，报价多维持在节前水平。 市场基本无成交，螺纹钢主流报价4160-4170元/吨。 供给方面，春节期间，省内短流程钢厂维持停产状态，部分长流程钢厂正常生产。 钢厂整体资源投入较小。 主要是。 库存方面，据不完全统计，目前成都市建筑钢材社会库存预计为64.47万吨，其中螺纹45.55万吨，卷材18.92万吨。 此外，还有大量资源在运输途中。 下游方面，下周一多数下游企业开工，工地复工时间多在正月十五左右。 鉴于节前钢坯价格大幅上涨，加之钢厂出厂价格坚挺，市场看涨，预计成都建筑钢材市场或将小幅上涨。

重庆

春节期间，市场休市，商家未入市报价，市场无成交。 库存方面，果园仓库、五县仓库、长寿欧业仓库、中梁山仓库状况良好，仓库情况较为正常。 目前，重庆整体社会库存约为40万吨，其中螺纹钢库存33.5万吨，线材库存6.1万吨，预计节后重庆库存高峰为50万吨-55万吨。 钢厂方面，重钢两家棒材均已投产，日均产量8500-9000吨； 重庆永航两家工厂处于停产状态，影响日均产量5500-6000吨。 下游方面，大部分下游企业复工时间安排在2月6日之后，具体取决于工人返岗情况。 预计节后重庆建材或将高开。

云南

昆明：春节期间，昆明建筑钢材市场基本休市，市场报价维持节前3950-4000之间的水平，市场基本无成交。 库存方面，截至27日，云南建材库存大幅增加，但2022年节后同比下降约10%。目前，云南钢厂总库存+社会库存约95万吨，较节前增加约25万吨，其中螺纹钢库存70万吨左右，线材库存约25万吨。 供给方面：省内部分长流程钢厂检修减产，短流程钢厂停产。 目前全省日产量约为4万吨。 Downstream: Most downstream enterprises in Yunnan Province will begin to go to work tomorrow, and the demand for construction site procurement is expected to resume after February 5 (the fifteenth day of the first lunar month). During the festival, the macro outlook is moderate and positive. Before the festival, the futures fluctuate and rise, and the market has a strong atmosphere of bullishness. It is expected that the price of construction steel in Yunnan will get off to a good start after the festival.

贵州

Guiyang: In terms of the market, the Guiyang market is basically closed at present, and the quotations are mostly maintained at the pre-holiday level. There is no transaction in the market, and the quotation of Shuigang rebar is around 4150. In terms of inventory, as of now, the total inventory is 203,000 tons, the rebar inventory is 141,000 tons, and the wire coil inventory is 62,000 tons; the inventory has increased by about 20,000 tons compared to before the festival. In terms of steel mills, Shuigang is not in saturated production, and other electric furnace steel mills continue to stop production. On the downstream side, most construction sites in Guizhou Province plan to resume work around February 6 (the 16th day of the first lunar month). At present, the inventory in Guiyang market is lower than that of previous years, which is significantly lower than the level of the same period last year. It is expected that Guiyang Building Materials will open steadily after the festival.

Central China: (The market is closed for holidays during the Spring Festival, and stock holdings are expected to increase after the festival)

湖北

Wuhan: During the Spring Festival, the Wuhan construction steel market is closed. It is understood that the earliest batch of spot traders will start to work one after another on the eighth day of the lunar new year, and the project delivery merchants and downstream construction units will resume work later. During the Spring Festival, the short-process steel mills in the province maintained a state of suspension of production, and some long-process steel mills were in normal production. The overall resource investment of the steel mills was relatively small, and the inventory in the factory increased steadily, and the market arrivals were basically dominated by local steel mills. During the Spring Festival, the transaction of the construction steel market basically stagnated, so the market inventory showed a continuous increase trend. According to specific statistics, the total inventory of building materials in Wuhan was about 364,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 9.7%, which was 16.5% lower than the total inventory of the week after the Spring Festival last year. The pressure is okay. Downstream demand has not recovered in the first week after the holiday, and inventories are expected to continue to increase. In terms of prices, due to the high production costs of steel mills and the continuous rise in settlement costs, manufacturers are more willing to raise prices after the festival. It is expected that the construction steel prices in the Wuhan market will usher in a "good start" after the festival.

河南

Zhengzhou: The construction steel market in Zhengzhou is closed during the Spring Festival, and the market price and the guide price of steel mills are mainly stable. It is reported that merchants have returned to the market one after another on the eighth day of the lunar new year. At present, only a few resource merchants have quotations, and the prices are mainly firm. In terms of resources, most of the steel mills in the province basically maintained the previous production status and were shut down for maintenance. The utilization rate of production capacity remained low, and the increase in inventory in the factory was limited. In terms of market inventory, due to the low amount of winter storage resources in the Zhengzhou market before the festival, and the self-storage of steel mills, most of the winter storage resources are mainly supplied directly from the factory warehouse, and the market storage resources are limited. At the same time, the market warehouse During the Spring Festival holiday, the overall inventory is about 140,000 tons, which is not obvious compared with that before the holiday. With the progress of demand release to be considered, it is expected that the inventory will continue to increase after the festival. In terms of mentality, due to the high cost of obtaining goods and low winter reserves, merchants are more willing to raise prices; steel mills are also more willing to continue to raise prices under the circumstances of low output and high costs. On the whole, the sentiment of manufacturers to increase prices still exists, and it is expected that the price of Zhengzhou construction steel products may run stronger after the festival.

湖南

Changsha: Most traders in the Changsha market go to work from the tenth day of the first month to the twelfth day of the first month, and the warehouses will resume normal entry and exit from today. There are very few sporadic quotations in the market of about 4,250 yuan/ton, which is 50 yuan/ton higher than that before the holiday. In terms of inventory, due to the low inventory in Changsha before the festival, and the reduction of resources in East China and Hubei due to multiple factors such as regional price differences, inconvenient water transportation, and steel mill maintenance, the increase in local inventory during the holidays is limited. The current preliminary statistics show that the inventory of building materials in Changsha is about 26.5 10,000 tons, an increase of about 110,000 tons compared with that before the festival. In terms of steel mill supply, Lian Iron and Steel currently has two production lines in normal production, and the other threaded line maintains single-shift production, with a daily output of about 8,000 tons/day. Cold Steel only retains one thread line for production, with a daily output of about 3,000 per day, and other production lines are shut down. Hunan Iron and Steel is in normal production, with a daily output of about 3,000 tons per day. On the downstream side, the construction site management personnel will go to work from the 10th to the 12th day of the festival after the festival, and will place orders to replenish the out-of-stock specifications appropriately. Before the Spring Festival, the downstream repayment situation is poor, so after the new year, traders may be more cautious in the distribution of advances. In terms of mentality, the increase in inventory of building materials in Changsha during the Spring Festival is lower than in previous years. At this stage, steel mills are in a state of low supply. Due to the generally high cost of winter storage, merchants are more willing to raise prices. It is expected that the price of construction steel in the Changsha market will usher in a rise after the festival. 。

North China: (The quotation remained stable during the Spring Festival, and may increase slightly after the festival)

北京

The market is closed during the festival, and most merchants start to open after the 10th day of the Lunar New Year. A few merchants tentatively offer 4,120 yuan/ton for large thread and 4,350 yuan/ton for coiled snails, but there is no transaction yet. During the Spring Festival, the arrival of Chenggang, Jingye and Linggang is relatively good, and Xilin and Xinfugang also have sporadic arrivals. According to incomplete statistics, the stock of construction steel in the Beijing market is about 850,000 tons. On the supply side: local steel mills have no new maintenance for the time being, and maintain the pre-holiday production status. Affected by logistics and transportation conditions, steel mills' warehouses have increased slightly. On the downstream side, only a few projects started normally during the festival, and most of them were in a state of suspension. On the whole, most merchants are cautiously optimistic, and it is expected that the market will still be driven up slightly after the festival.

天津

The market is closed during the festival, and most merchants start to open after the tenth day of the Lunar New Year. At present, there are no merchants offering quotations, but some merchants in the surrounding area tentatively offer 4,120 yuan/ton for large threads. During the Spring Festival, the arrival of Chenggang, Jingye, and Linggang was relatively good, and a small amount of Xilin and Xinfugang also arrived. According to incomplete statistics, the inventory of construction steel in the Tianjin market was 191,700 tons, an increase of 34,400 tons compared with before the festival. During the festival, most of the downstream is in a state of shutdown, with only a small amount of normal construction. Before the festival, the amount of downstream stocks is relatively small. It is expected that some work will resume around the fifteenth day of the first lunar month, and the purchase volume will start to increase at that time. On the whole, most merchants are cautiously optimistic, and it is expected that the market will continue to rise slightly after the festival.

河北

Tangshan: After the festival, the market price of building materials in Tangshan is basically stable compared with that before the festival. The current three-level large thread is 4,090 yuan/ton, and the coiled snail is 4,220 yuan/ton; Due to the low overall inventory in the pre-holiday market, even though the goods are arriving continuously, the pressure on merchants' inventory is not great; on the downstream side, the local construction sites are basically in a state of shutdown during the festival, and the start time varies. On the whole, the supply in the local market is relatively weak during the holiday. It has shrunk in previous years, so the increase in inventory is also lower than in previous years. The overall attitude of merchants is optimistic, and the market price is expected to increase slightly after the festival.

Shijiazhuang: As of today after the festival, the market has not yet opened, and individual merchants are preparing to open on the eighth or tenth day of the lunar new year; before the festival, the quotation of local building materials in Shijiazhuang is 4,140 yuan/ton for large screw threads, and about 4,420 yuan/ton for coiled snails. There are basically no quotations during the festival. In terms of inventory: local building materials can be delivered during festivals, and most of the resources flow into the smart logistics warehouse. Due to the stagnation of shipments, the inventory has increased significantly. The current inventory is about 225,000 tons. On the downstream side, the local construction sites are basically in a state of shutdown during the festival, and the resumption time varies. On the whole, the attitude of most merchants is optimistic, and it is expected that the opening price of the market will rise after the festival.

Handan: On the sixth day after the festival, most of the merchants in the market did not go to work, and only a few merchants arrived in advance to prepare; after the festival, the market's third-grade anti-seismic materials maintained the pre-holiday price of 4,070 yuan/ton for large threads, and 4,190 yuan/ton for small threads; during the festival, the market The arrival volume is basically normal, mainly because the supply from steel mills remains at a low level before the holiday. From the perspective of understanding the inventory situation of various merchants, basically there is not much pressure. Downstream: During the festival, the downstream will stop working during holidays. Judging from the understanding of the resumption of work, most of them will be after the tenth day of the Lunar New Year. On the whole, the supply is low during the festival, the market is under little pressure to increase inventory, and the merchants have a stable mentality. It is expected that prices will be stable starting tomorrow.

山西

Taiyuan: In terms of the market, there was a slight transaction in the market before the festival, and there was basically no transaction in the market during the festival. However, the uncertainty of the market outlook still exists, and the speculative demand is mostly on the sidelines. Variety to reduce the pressure on building materials inventory. The price is slightly stronger, basically at 20 yuan/ton. Currently, the price of rebar remains at 4,070 yuan/ton, and the price of coiled snails is at 4,220 yuan/ton. In terms of steel mills, on the first day after the holiday, the physical inventory of all steel types in the steel mill sample library enterprises in Shanxi was 1.978 million, of which the total physical inventory in the construction steel plant was about 1.919 million tons, an increase of 457,000 tons compared with the previous period. At present, the atmosphere of the Spring Festival in the market is strong, the merchants are not open, and the steel mills continue to accumulate in the warehouse. In addition, the current domestic steel mills take the production cost of rebar as an example. The average gross profit is about 200 yuan/ton, and the speed of resumption of production is accelerating. In addition, the physical inventory of construction steel in steel mills increased by 46.8% compared with the same period last year, among which the increase in coil inventory was the most obvious, reaching a year-on-year increase of 71.7%.

Jinnan: During the Spring Festival, the overall trading performance of the market is relatively deserted, and the price increase is not large compared with that before the festival. , thread 4050, the overall market turnover is bleak. In terms of resources, the current steel mills basically maintain stable production, while the market demand has not yet recovered. The sales policies of steel mills have basically remained stable for many days, and the overall shipment performance is not smooth. Due to sluggish market demand, social treasury was basically the same as last week. On the whole, the overall performance of the market during the festival was stable compared with that before the festival. At present, the Spring Festival is coming to an end, market merchants are returning to work one after another, construction projects in many places may resume work slowly, and market demand may be released. At this stage, most merchants are still cautious in purchasing, and the fundamentals of oversupply are unlikely to change, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the post-holiday market. It is expected that the market price of construction steel in southern Jinan will continue to rise after the festival, and the operation is still cautious.

内蒙古

Baotou: During the Spring Festival, the Baotou market is generally stable, and the price remains at the pre-holiday level. Yaxin pan snail HRB400E 8-10mm4230 yuan/ton, HRB400E 18-25mm4180 yuan/ton (weighing price); Baotou Steel pan snail HRB400E 8-10mm4250 yuan/ton , HRB400E 18-28mm 4150 yuan / ton. Supply situation, during the festival, the steel mills in the region maintain the pre-holiday production level, Baotou Steel's two-bar production line is suspended, Yaxin's semi-production status, Da'an's production is suspended, Desheng is still in production, and Baotou Steel's Wanteng rolling line is scheduled for production. The output of building materials in domestic steel mills is still at a low level, and some steel mills resumed production in February. At present, the steel mills in the region are in winter storage and self-storage, which has led to a significant increase in the inventory of steel mills compared with before the festival. The total building material inventory of the sample steel mills is about 450,000 tons, while the market inventory continues to increase due to the arrival of locked-in resources in the early stage. At present, the social The inventory was 150,200 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons compared with that before the festival. Overall, this year's market winter reserves have decreased significantly compared to last year. Merchants are cautiously optimistic about the start of spring, and local merchants have returned to the market after the eighth day of the Lunar New Year.

Chifeng: During the Spring Festival, the price is generally stable. Linggang Panluo HRB400E 8-10mm4400 yuan/ton, HRB400E 18-25mm4150 yuan/ton. At present, the market inventory is still at a low level, less than 20,000 tons as a whole. Most traders say that the price is too high, and they basically give up winter storage. There should be a wave of inertial rise in prices after the festival, but the real construction in the north will not start until mid-to-late March. During this period, there will be some There is no market for prices, and demand cannot keep up, and it may rise and fall. The market opening is mostly chosen on the eighth and tenth day of the lunar new year.

Northeast China: (The quotation remained stable during the Spring Festival, and the price rose passively after the festival)

辽宁

Shenyang: Most of the market is closed during the Spring Festival, and the price basically maintains the pre-holiday level. HRB400E rebar Ф22mm new Fugang is quoted at about 4100-4120 yuan/ton, HRB400E rebar Ф8mm new Fugang is quoted at about 4450 yuan/ton, and Jilin Xinda is quoted at 4250 Yuan/ton or so. On the supply side, due to the impact of poor blast furnace production, the output of building materials in Liaoning Province dropped slightly by about 8,000 tons before the Spring Festival. In terms of inventory, during the festival, the market outbound volume is extremely low, steel mills continue to arrive, and market inventory continues to accumulate. At present, the construction steel inventory in Shenyang market is 333,900 tons, an increase of 34,500 tons compared with before the festival, of which 301,300 tons of rebar inventory is higher than before the festival. An increase of 34,200 tons, and a coil inventory of 32,600 tons increased by 0,300 tons compared with before the holiday. On the whole, affected by the continuous upside down of the current steel mills' profits, the production enthusiasm of the steel mills in the region is generally low, and the stock accumulation in the market is not as good as in previous years. The proportion of right inventory is only about 15%, and this year, three high-speed lines in Liaoning Province have driven demand, the proportion of direct supply of resources from steel mills is relatively large, and the market sales pressure after the festival is relatively small. Under the leadership of the strong operation.

Dalian: During the Spring Festival, the market price did not change much, and there was no inquiry and no transaction. Among them, the price of Xinfu Iron and Steel, Tonghua Iron and Steel, and Beitai threaded HRB400EФ22mm is 4110 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinfu Steel's plate screw HRB400EФ8mm is 4470 yuan/ton. In terms of output, during the Spring Festival, the market-leading steel mills scheduled production normally, and the thread production lines of individual steel mills completed maintenance and resumed production, and the output increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the market arrived one after another during the festival. Among them, the thread inventory was about 43,100 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons compared with before the festival, and the wire inventory was about 25,300 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons compared with before the festival, which was in the normal accumulation stage.由于商家暂无返市，市场较为冷清，短期内价格大概率以稳为主，不排除有跟随主导钢厂上调的可能。

吉林

长春：春节期间长春建材价格较节前无变化，主流钢厂西钢、新抚螺纹HRB400E22mm报4130-4150元/吨，西钢、鑫达盘螺HRB400E8mm报4230-4330元/吨。供应方面，钢厂生产基本维持节前节奏，整体产量几乎较节前持平，但部分钢厂节后计划复产，故节后产量预计将增加。社库方面，节日期间主流仓库整体到货不多，大部分无新资源入库，据统计长春市场盘线社库合计11.6万吨，较节前增加0.2万吨。而节后商户虽多数将准时返市，但由于气温极低需求预计将难以及时恢复，故价格或将平稳开局。

黑龙江

哈尔滨：春节期间市场整体平稳运行，价格维持在节前水平，其中西林、通钢、吉林金钢螺纹HRB400EФ22mm价格报4270元/吨，西林、吉林鑫达盘螺HRB400EФ8mm价格报4440元/吨。库存方面，春节期间主导钢厂西林排产正常、双鸭山建龙棒线下旬复产后排产不顺影响部分产量，节日期间市场到货以乌钢螺纹以及鑫达盘线为主，西林螺纹到货极少，市场库存变化不大，其中螺纹库存约3.56万吨较节前增加0.08万吨，盘线库存约0.65万吨较节前增加0.38万吨，目前螺线库存均明显低于去年同期水平。由于需求启动较晚，商家基本尚未返市，短期内价格或暂稳观望为主。

西北地区：（春节期间休市稳价，节后有望偏强运行）

陕西

西安：春节期间西安市场处于休市状态，市场价格基本维持节前报价，主导钢材HRB400E20mm螺纹钢价格约在4220-4230元/吨。放假期间龙钢、建龙正常移库只有市场库房，日君到货量7000-8000吨，现西安市场库存42万吨左右。钢厂情况，主导钢厂2座高炉1条轧线节日期间延续检修，厂里增加至38万吨，短流程钢厂冬休。对于春节后市场，本地市场商家相对乐观，目前钢厂价格坚挺而商家却无太多资源，预计节后本地市场将迎来一波开门红，震荡偏强为主。

新疆

乌鲁木齐：春节期间市场大部分商户休假离市，市场基本处于停滞状态，暂无报价。以节前市场价格来看，乌鲁木齐区域八钢HRB400E22mm中螺纹基价4000-4030元/吨，昆仑、昆玉等钢厂中螺纹基价4000-4020元/吨。据市场商户反馈，目前疆内运费水平整体偏低，部分钢厂赶在此窗口期向南疆各地州市场进行冬储资源布库，因此乌鲁木齐社会库存整体变化不大。据不完全统计，目前乌鲁木齐社会库存约18万吨，较节前增加约1.35万吨，较2022年同期（春节后一周）增加约1.5万吨。对于后市，受节前钢厂频繁上调出厂结算价格影响，市场商户报价普遍较为坚挺，且节后区内主要钢厂为缩小与周边市场价差仍有上调结算价格打算，预计节后疆内建筑钢材价格继续以震荡上行为主。

甘肃

兰州：节假日期间，兰州建筑钢材价格较节前无变化，酒钢价格在4250元/吨，市场基本处于休市状态，仅少数商户初七开门营业，大部分在初十之后，市场暂无成交。库存方面，近期部分钢厂有资源到货，整体社会库存处于增加态势，约13万吨左右，较去年同期水平明显较少，降幅约28.9%。钢厂方面，区内主导钢企正常生产，轧线产能利用率约98.3%，另一家钢企仍处于停产检修状态，复产时间待定。心态方面，对于节后行情，大多数商户心态乐观，持看涨态度，不过如需求未能如期释放，叠加库存压力加大，不排除价格出现小幅回落，预计兰州建筑钢材价格震荡偏强运行。

青海

西宁：西宁建筑钢材价格较节前无基本持平，酒钢价格4250元/吨。目前商户暂未营业，市场依旧处于休市状态。据悉，最早正式营业的商户时间也得等到正月初十。库存方面，西宁社库节日期间仅少数资源到货，较节前增加了约0.5吨，整体库存在5万吨左右，同比去年降幅较为明显。钢厂方面，区内主导钢企建筑钢材暂未复轧。对于节后开市行情，多数商户认为现货价格会有一波上涨，同时希望上涨行情中，资源能及时到位，尽量多促成交。综合来看，受资源供应紧张影响，预计西宁市场建筑钢材价格或以震荡偏强态势运行。

宁夏

银川：春节期间，银川市场休市，商家都处于放假当中，市场基本无成交，价格维持节前报价。目前申银特钢HRB400E20mm螺纹钢价格约在4130-4150元/吨。目前本地市场社会库存量较高，据不完全统计，目前银川市场建筑钢材库存量约在20万吨，相比往年增加了约4万吨，主要以本地市场钢厂资源为主。节日期间宁夏钢铁继续停产检修，宁夏建龙基本正常生产，维持节前水平，日均产量约在1万吨。对于春节后市场，本地市场商家相对乐观，目前钢厂价格坚挺而商家却无太多资源，预计节后本地市场将迎来一波开门红，震荡偏强为主。

西藏

拉萨：春节期间藏区市场处于休市状态，市场价格基本维持节前报价，主导钢材HRB400E20mm螺纹钢价格约在4520-4550元/吨，暂时无成交。渝中钢铁复产后有少量螺纹发往藏区市场，截至目前，拉萨市场螺纹社库总理约在4.5-5万吨，处于低位。市场大户及主流钢厂一致看好年后市场行情，认为市场价格将继续走出一波稳步上涨的趋势，目前大户冬储量都在2万吨以内，对于开春后的第一波行情均是希望快速上涨，同时尽快出货回款。但从藏区市场的特性来看，短期内完全开市的可能性较低，现阶段仅少量跨年项目有所需求，预计正式开市需要等到3月中下旬。

总结：虽然春节期间各市场价格变化不大，但厂商对于节后价格迎来反弹的预期基本一致，后期价格能否持续上行则存在较大分歧。首先，今年春节时间偏早，气温条件不利于下游施工，对于消费的恢复将造成部分影响；其次，虽然目前供给偏低且库存压力不大，但由于无限产政策影响，节后产量恢复速度或将超预期，这将导致库存累库的时间继续延长，届时市场销售压力将出现回升；再次，虽然年前地产政策有持续松动且利好频出，但前期土拍数据持续低迷，这将使得春季房地产开工总量大打折扣，尽管存在基建托底的预期，但很难出现下游消费集中爆发的局面；另外，节后价格若无量空涨，则部分节前冬储资源已有近10%左右浮盈，不排除将出现提前兑现利润的情况。以上因素均将限制节后价格的整体反弹空间，因此节后操作仍需谨慎为主。